Six teams still alive in the Men’s NCAA Tournament know what it’s like to hang a banner.
Connecticut has won six national championships during the tournament era, most recently with a back-to-back run in 2024, to tie North Carolina for the third-most in Division I history.
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Duke has won five, most recently in 2015. Michigan State has won a pair, including under current coach Tom Izzo in 2000 — still the most recent title for the Big Ten. Arizona (1997), Arkansas (1994) and Michigan (1989) have one.
RE-SEEDING THE SWEET 16: Separating the contenders from pretenders
That leaves 10 potential first-time champions in the Sweet 16, including recent powerhouses such as Houston, historically successful programs such as Purdue and Illinois and some dark-horse underdogs, led by traditional football power Nebraska.
Looking at each team’s Sweet 16 matchup and what opponents could await in the Elite Eight and beyond, let’s rank which of these 10 contenders has the best chance of joining the champions club:
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10. Texas (21-14)
The West Region’s 11-seed, Texas, has already won three tournament games to reach its second Sweet 16 since 2008. To keep going, the Longhorns would need to handle Purdue’s experience, potentially Arizona’s NBA-heavy roster just to reach the Final Four. If so, they’d become the third team to go from the play-in round to the national semifinals.
9. Iowa (23-12)
Iowa, the 9-seed in the South, is an underdog against the Cornhuskers and would be even bigger underdogs in a matchup with Houston or Illinois — let alone against the winner of a loaded East region in the Final Four. Then again, the Hawkeyes did just beat the Gators, so anything is possible.
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8. Nebraska (28-6)
The fourth-seeded Cornhuskers’ magical run has included the first tournament win in school history and a dramatic 74-72 win in the second round against No. 5 Vanderbilt. Nebraska next draws rival Iowa after splitting the season series. It has a terrific chance at reaching the Elite Eight but would be very hard-pressed to knock off Houston, though Nebraska did beat Illinois on the road earlier this year.
7. Tennessee (24-11)
As mentioned, Tennessee’s outlook looks much better if Joshua Jefferson is unable to go for ISU. A few more days of recovery time should also help freshman forward Nate Ament, who had 16 points in the win against No. 3 Virginia. But in addition to not resembling a title team at virtually any point this season, the sixth-seeded Volunteers are battling coach Rick Barnes’ checkered tournament history. In 39 seasons, Barnes has made just one Final Four.
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6. Alabama (25-9)
Midwest Region’s No. 4 seed, Alabama, has a seemingly unfavorable matchup in the Sweet 16 against Michigan, which has the guard play, the beef in the frontcourt and the playing style to outgun the high-scoring Crimson Tide. On the other hand, the Tide have advanced past the Sweet 16 in each of the past two years and have a formula that’s proven to work in the postseason.
5. Illinois (26-8)
The biggest issue for 3-seed Illinois is the matchup against Houston in what should be unfriendly territory. With the Cougars looking like one of the top favorites for the national title, it’ll take a huge effort from the Illini just to reach the Elite Eight, let alone advance all the way to the program’s first championship.
4. Iowa State (29-7)
The one hangup for No. 2 seed Iowa State in the Midwest region is the injury to All-America forward Joshua Jefferson, who missed the second round against No. 7 Kentucky but is battling to get back for Tennessee in the Sweet 16. If so, the Cyclones are an obvious title contender. If not, ISU might not get past the Volunteers.
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3. Purdue (29-8)
No. 2 seed Purdue is getting hot at the right time. After beating Michigan to capture the Big Ten tournament, the Boilermakers have dispatched No. 15 Queens and No. 7 Miami to set up a Sweet 16 pairing with Texas. While it’ll need better play from Braden Smith, who had eight turnovers against the Hurricanes, Purdue has Final Four potential.
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2. St. John’s (30-6)
Rick Pitino is the head coach. Is there more that needs to be said? Already the first coach to reach a Sweet 16 in five separate decades, Pitino is looking to lead his fourth program to the Final Four, having done so at Providence (1987), Kentucky (1993 and 1996-97) and Louisville (2005 and 2012-13). The fifth-seeded Red Storm have one of the nation’s best big men in Zuby Ejiofor and the physicality to handle No. 1 Duke in the East Region semifinal. From there, it’s either No. 3 Michigan State or a rematch with the No. 2 Huskies.
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1. Houston (30-6)
Houston has an enviable path back to the Final Four in the South Region after finishing as the runner-up to Florida last April. While the Sweet 16 matchup with Illinois will be a challenge, the No. 2 Cougars won’t get Florida, which was upset by Iowa. With a win, UH would take on either the Hawkeyes or the Cornhuskers. Better yet, the regional semifinals and final are being played at the Toyota Center in Houston.
March Madness predictions: Who will win Sweet 16, Elite 8, reach Final Four?
∎ USA TODAY Sports staff made their picks. Check them out here.
∎ How’d we do in our original predictions? We grade our selections.
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∎ Some of us have revised our Final Four predictions after Florida’s loss to Iowa busted our brackets.
Sweet 16 schedule, game times
THURSDAY, MARCH 26
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7:10 p.m.: No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas (West), CBS
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7:30 p.m.: No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa (South), TBS/truTV
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9:45 p.m.: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas (West), CBS
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10:05 p.m.: No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois (South), TBS/truTV
FRIDAY, MARCH 27
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7:10 p.m.: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s (East), CBS
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7:35 p.m.: Texas Tech/Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Michigan (Midwest), TBS/truTV
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9:45 p.m.: No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State (East), CBS
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10:10 p.m.: No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee (Midwest), TBS/truTV
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Which Sweet 16 team has best chance at winning first NCAA national title
