In a year full of parity that featured six teams achieving conference marks of 5-3 or better, the Mountain West now looks to have three teams – Boise State, New Mexico and San Diego State – join UNLV in hitting ten wins.
Since it’s creation in 1999, having four conference members achieve this feat has only occurred three times (2014, 2019, and 2021).
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With the impending departures of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State to the Pac-12 at the conclusion of this academic year, this will be a bowl season full of “lasts.”
Let’s take a look at each of the seven bowl games featuring the Mountain West as we know it for one last time. Remember, all odds are subject to change.
December 13th: Bucked Up LA Bowl Hosted By Gronk – Boise State vs. Washington
In an all-too-familiar matchup between two Pacific Northwest schools that have shared a Hall of Fame head coach in Chris Petersen, this is the most unlikely win for the Mountain West out of all seven contests. Winning the conference title is always a goal and a heck of an accomplishment, but for the Broncos, they have not fared well in the postseason during the last decade. Despite making a bowl game in each of the last ten years, they have only won three of those – 55-7 over Northern Illinois in the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl, 38-28 over Oregon in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl, and 35-32 over North Texas in the 2022 Frisco Bowl. Granted, three of those seasons are marked with an asterisk thanks to COVID (2020), a CFP appearance (2024), and the wacky weather cancellation of the 2018 First Responder Bowl.
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The Washington Huskies finished 8-4 in the regular season with losses against Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr. finished top-30 in the nation in passing yards and has a stout rush defense to force opposing offenses into three-and-outs. Head coach Jedd Fisch said he doesn’t expect anyone on his roster to opt out of the bowl game.
FanDuel Odds
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Spread: Washington -9.5 (-110) / Boise State +9.5 (-110)
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Money Line: Washington -355 / Boise State +285
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Total: 52.5 points (Over at -114 and Under at -106)
Prediction
There aren’t many scenarios I can find where Boise State pulls off the upset and notches win No. 10. This is a middle to top-tier Big Ten team that remained relatively competitive against two College Football Playoff contenders. Washington takes the win with an offensive onslaught.
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Washington to win, cover, and take the over.
December 22nd: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Utah State vs. Washington State
In his first year in Logan, head coach Bronco Mendenhall put this Utah State team into a crockpot and as the season wore on, the Aggies slowly and surely became better and better. And prior to conference play, they tested themselves by heading out to SEC country and taking on Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. In a parity-filled year in the Mountain West, Utah State was well within the rat race, but a three-point loss to UNLV in the early stages of November put their conference title hopes on life support. That was before Boise State came into Logan and snuck out of Maverik Stadium with a one-point win that, in the end, provided the Broncos with home-field advantage in the conference championship. Quarterback Bryson Barnes has been an absolute warrior, willing his team to the finish line in some games as he quite literally limped from play to play. It may come as a surprise, but since 2011, the Aggies have participated in the bowl season in all seasons but 2016, 2020 (COVID), and 2024.
Their opponent, the Washington State Cougars, are in a tough spot as head coach Jimmy Rogers left the team within the past week to the take the vacant Iowa State position left by Matt Campbell, now at Penn State. This was his first year in Pullman, and despite the sour grapes that now exist between the two entities, Rogers and the Cougs were a thorn in the side of multiple CFP-contending programs, losing in Oxford to Ole Miss by three, in Charlottesville to Virginia by two, and in Harrisonburg to James Madison by four. This team has a lot of spunk, but with eleven days until the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, it wouldn’t come as a shock if players within the program elected to sit out.
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FanDuel Odds
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Spread: Utah State -2.5 (-122) / Washington State +2.5 (+100)
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Money Line: Utah State -150 / Washington State +125
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Total: 52.5 points (Over at -110 and Under at -110)
Prediction
For one of the few times in a while, this edition of the Potato Bowl should attract a healthy crowd to The Blue in Boise. From Wazzu to Boise State, it is less than a six-hour drive while Utah State is just a shade over four hours away. One would hope that attendance exceeds 20,000 for a niche bowl game like this.
Utah State to win, cover, and take the under.
December 23rd: Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl – UNLV vs. Ohio
With the coaching carousel whirring at ludicrous speed, there was speculation that UNLV head coach Dan Mullen may be on the move. However, as of publishing, he is still a Rebel. They are coming off of a Mountain West ending that to their fans must feel like rewatching a horror film again and again as they lost to Boise State in the conference title game for the third year in a row. Regardless, UNLV is managed to record ten wins, creating program history with the first instance of back-to-back double-digit win seasons. In addition, their 30-10 record over the last three years is the best in Rebel history. This is the golden era of UNLV football, and in a new-look Mountain West, they may very well become the flagship football school moving forward.
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Speaking of coaching uncertainty, Ohio’s head coach, Brian Smith, was placed on paid leave on December 1st for an “undetermined period of time.” According to Smith’s attorney, the former assistant was asked to leave in the middle of the work day without an explanation from the university as to why. In his absence, defensive coordinator John Hauser has taken over head coaching duties. After starting the season 3-3, the Bobcats found their stride and went 5-1 to finish third in the MAC. Redshirt senior quarterback Parker Navarro has been a well-known name in Group of Five circles, not because of his passing ability, but because of how much of a threat he is to run. In the last two seasons, he has accumulated 1,779 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns.
FanDuel Odds
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Spread: UNLV -4.5 (-110) / Ohio +4.5 (-110)
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Money Line: UNLV -194 / Ohio +160
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Total: 62.5 points (Over at -110 and Under at -110)
Prediction
Outside of the voodoo Boise State has against UNLV, the Rebels’ only other loss was to a resurgent New Mexico team that nearly hosted the Mountain West title game. With Dan Mullen still rocking the red and black, I expect them to rely on their talent advantage and capture an 11th win.
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UNLV to win, cover, and take the over.
December 24th: Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl – Hawai’i vs. California
Christmas Eve in Honolulu.
For a Rainbow Warriors team that will play in a bowl game for the first time since 2020, playing in front of the home faithful will be the memory of a lifetime. Freshman quarterback Micah Alejado was an absolute gunslinger this year, leading Hawai’i to eight wins, including victories against Stanford and San Diego State. The craziest part is that they were nine points away from going 10-2 and playing in the Mountain West championship game. However, not all is sunshine and rainbows as standout wide receiver Jackson Harris announced that he is entering the transfer portal. Coincidentally, he is a native of Berkeley, California. After arriving by way of Stanford this past offseason, Harris lead the team with 963 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. Hawai’i still has wide receiver Pofele Ashlock to make up for Harris’ departure, but head coach Timmy Chang will need some of his youngsters to step up.
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And as if looking in a mirror, the California Golden Bears have been led by another Hawaiian native, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. A fellow freshman, Sagapolutele set the college football world ablaze in his first year, throwing for 3,117 yards and 17 touchdowns. He also threw two or more interceptions just three times this season against ACC competition that included Virginia, Louisville, and SMU. But, there is one common opponent between the Rainbow Warriors and Golden Bears – San Diego State. Sagapolutele had a tough day against the Aztecs, finishing with 208 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. On the flip side, Micah Alejado tore them up to a tune of 256 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. I would spend more time on the fact that Cal fired their head coach, Justin Wilcox, but former UH head coach Nick Rolovich has stepped in as the interim with offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin – yes, that Bryan Harsin – calling plays on offense. This coaching staff has a plethora of experience that translates, evidenced by their final win of the regular season over SMU in Berkeley.
FanDuel Odds
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Spread: California -2.5 (-105) / Hawai’i +2.5 (-115)
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Money Line: California -125 / Hawai’i +104
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Total: 54.5 points (Over at -115 and Under at -105)
Prediction
The battle of Hawaiian quarterbacks.
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A Rolovich reunion.
Timmy Chang’s best season to date.
This game has an absurd amount of storylines, and I see fireworks ensuing from kickoff until the clock hits zeroes.
Hawai’i to win, cover, and take the over.
December 26th: Rate Bowl – New Mexico vs. Minnesota
What a season for Jason Eck and the New Mexico Lobos! In just his first year in Albuquerque after departing Moscow and the Idaho Vandals, they not only reached bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016, but recorded nine wins for just the third time since 2000. After highlight reel quarterback Devon Dampier entered the transfer portal and found a new home at Utah, it felt as though that this year would be a grind. But the Eck effect is a real thing, and by way of some transfer additions in combination with a culture reset, the Lobos played some of their best football in the last 25 years. And it didn’t take long to realize that there was something different about this team as they competed in the Big House against Michigan and two weeks later handled UCLA with ease in a 25-point statement victory. Since their last loss at the hands of Boise State on October 11th, New Mexico ran off a six-game win streak that nearly clinched them a spot in the Mountain West title game, but the computer metrics had other plans. Despite that, Jason Eck and the Lobos have a chance to etch their names in the history books as a win would mark only the second time in program history that they achieved ten wins, the only other instance occurring in 1982.
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Minnesota had a satisfactory season, but nothing to be over the moon about. They beat the teams that they should, while losing to the goliaths of the Big Ten. It feels like just yesterday that P.J. Fleck was hired away from Western Michigan after the Broncos made it to a New Year’s six bowl. However, he is in his ninth year leading the Golden Gophers. The 2025 season was, in all honesty, a forgettable one. They never won more than two in a row, and never lost more than two in a row as they yo-yoed back and forth. But, interestingly enough, Minnesota has won every single bowl game it has participated in under Fleck.
FanDuel Odds
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Spread: Minnesota -2.5 (-115) / New Mexico +2.5 (-105)
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Money Line: Minnesota -138 / New Mexico +115
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Total: 47.5 points (Over at -105 and Under at -115)
Prediction
Plain and simple, I think the Lobos are more hungry to end the season with a bang.
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New Mexico to win, cover, and take the under.
December 27th: Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop – Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio)
It was a tale of two seasons for Fresno State as Matt Entz got his feet wet in his first FBS head coaching gig after excelling at powerhouse North Dakota State. The Bulldogs began the year 5-1 with wins over Oregon State and Hawai’i, and looked to be a prime candidate to contend for the Mountain West title. But then came a shocking 28-point defeat to Colorado State where quarterback E.J. Warner, son of former NFL QB Kurt Warner, threw three interceptions and knee-capped their chances of fighting back. For Entz and the coaching staff, this was enough evidence to make the call to the bullpen and have FCS transfer Carson Conklin make his first FBS start against… San Diego State. The loss to the Rams was a sign of things to come as the Bulldogs limped to the finish line, going 3-3 in their final six games. After the Conklin experiment failed, Warner was reinstated as the starter and has remained as such.
When you think of the RedHawks’ program, the first face that may come to mind his longtime Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. But in terms of sustained impact, head coach Chuck Martin has done a heck of a job reaching bowl eligibility seemingly year in and year out. His first season in Oxford, Ohio, came in 2014 and during his tenure, Miami has reached six or more wins eight times. This includes the fact that, outside of the COVID 2020 season, the RedHawks haven’t missed a bowl game since 2018. Quarterback Dequan Finn arrived after multiple stints at Toledo and Baylor, but the dual-threat passer announced a month ago that he would forego the remainder of the season to instead place his focus on preparing for the 2026 NFL Draft. Since then, two QBs, Henry Hesson and Thomas Gotkowski, have taken turns at the wheel.
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FanDuel Odds
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Spread: Fresno State -3.5 (-110) / Miami (OH) +3.5 (-110)
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Money Line: Fresno State -164 / Miami (OH) +136
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Total: 42.5 points (Over at -110 and Under at -110)
Prediction
If Miami still had Finn running their offense, I would have taken them in a heartbeat. However, with them scrapping their way to the finish line and Fresno State giving the keys back to Warner, I see the Bulldogs pulling out a not-so-pretty affair surrounded by the vibes that Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg bring.
Fresno State to win, cover, and take the under.
December 27th: Isleta New Mexico Bowl – San Diego State vs. North Texas
In a Mountain West race filled with chaos down the stretch, one team controlled its destiny – the Aztecs of San Diego State. If they had won in Albuquerque against New Mexico, it would have secured their spot in the Mountain West championship and, in all likelihood, allowed them to host. Alas, the Lobos’ magic was too strong and, with Boise State winning, the computers got involved and rewarded the Broncos and UNLV with the coveted golden tickets. For head coach Sean Lewis and company, this season featured all the types of wins you crave – the P4 carrot in California, the bragging rights over Fresno State, and the conference supremacy battle with Boise State. But it was the occasional offensive dud combined with the defensive dam breaking that contributed to their three losses. Quarterback Jayden Denegal had some really good moments in early October, but nagging injuries forced the Aztec staff to rely less on him and more on the running ability of Lucky Sutton. And, to no surprise, their defense was dynamite as it limited seven opponents to seven points or less, including three shutouts.
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The American Athletic Conference was as deep as ever this year with four teams winning nine or more games. South Florida earned resume-boosting wins over Boise State and Florida, Tulane beat Northwestern and Duke, and Memphis added a victory over Arkansas. North Texas didn’t notch a high-quality non-conference win, but it proved itself to be an offensive juggernaut, scoring 50 or more points seven times. It should be noted that head coach Eric Morris agreed to take the vacant seat at Oklahoma State left by Mike Gundy, promoting associate head coach Drew Svoboda to the interim position. More importantly, phenom redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker is playing in this game after compiling a historic season with 4,129 passing yards and 36 total touchdowns to his name. Watch out for running back Caleb Hawkins (1,236 yds / 26 TDs) and wide receiver Wyatt Young (1,209 yds / 11 TDs) as well.
FanDuel Odds
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Spread: North Texas -3.5 (-108) / San Diego State +3.5 (-112)
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Money Line: North Texas -160 / San Diego State +132
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Total: 55.5 points (Over at -110 and Under at -110)
Prediction
Don’t get me wrong.
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San Diego State’s defense has stifled numerous adversaries in 2025.
However, this Mean Green offense is something else to behold, even if Eric Morris is already off to Stillwater, Oklahoma.
In what may potentially be Drew Mestemaker’s last game in a North Texas uniform, anything other than a UNT offensive clinic would be surprising.
North Texas to win, cover, and take the over.
Let us know in the comments your predictions for each of the Mountain West’s seven bowl game participants!
