2025 NBA draft lottery: Odds for every team, potential picks

The 2025 NBA draft lottery brings its annual wave of intrigue Monday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), with the entire league descending on Chicago and offseason proceedings fully underway for most every franchise.

With Cooper Flagg as the consensus projected No. 1 pick and the headliner of the NBA draft, Dylan Harper representing a strong option at No. 2, and a host of intriguing young players — many of them freshmen — behind them, Monday’s event is shaping up to be a fascinating lottery night, with the fates of at least 13 NBA teams hanging heavily on which combinations are drawn.

ESPN NBA draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo break down the outlook for every team in the lottery, with intel on their offseason ahead and mocking the best prospect fit for each if the order holds constant. Of course, history suggests it won’t, with surprises likely on the horizon.

Here’s what you need to know looking ahead to Monday’s draft lottery.

Jump to a team:
UTA | WAS | CHA | NOR
PHI | BKN | TOR | SAS | HOU
POR | DAL | CHI | ATL

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke, SF/PF
2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers, PG
3. Ace Bailey, Rutgers, SG/SF
4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor, SG

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 1: Flagg

Any NBA team would be thrilled to add Flagg, but Utah stands out in particular as needing the star power of the Duke freshman more than others. The Jazz made a concerted effort to bottom out and finish with the league’s worst record (17-65) this season. And Utah is coming off two relatively fruitless years in the lottery (2022-24), winning 37 and 31 games respectively, after trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell and officially kick-starting its rebuilding process.

While he wouldn’t solve all of their issues, Flagg would create a big, versatile and highly formidable frontcourt alongside Lauri Markkanen (if deemed to fit on Utah’s timetable) and Walker Kessler, while being provided with the type of shot-creation responsibility he needs to reach his full potential. — Givony

What we’re hearing on the Jazz: Luring star free agents to Utah has historically not been easy, putting pressure on the front office to hit home runs in the trade market and especially via the draft, where the franchise is well-stocked for future success.

The Jazz have a pair of first-round picks (this, and the No. 21 pick) and second-rounders in this year’s draft, as well as a boatload of future picks coming from the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Lakers and Suns between now and 2031. Utah’s passionate fan base will be holding its collective breath on the night of the lottery, hoping to strike gold with Flagg at No. 1, and worst case, not fall past No. 2 where Harper also could be a promising long-term fit. — Givony

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Edgecombe
4. Bailey

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 2: Harper

Harper is the type of ballhandling force the Wizards could use to bolster their offense in the long run, capable of putting downhill pressure on defenses and making life easier for teammates. Although Rutgers didn’t make the NCAA tournament, Harper had flashes of talent as a playmaker and scorer, with the finishing ability and passing vision to command major usage. He would be a strong pick-and-roll partner for lob threat Alex Sarr and has the size to play alongside promising guard Bub Carrington.

His feel and positional size would be a philosophical fit for a team that’s still rebuilding and should make him attractive to every team in the lottery, with a strong chance at being the No. 2 pick regardless of which team selects there. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Wizards: The Wizards stand out as a particularly interesting landing spot for Flagg, who would form a strong defensive backbone with Sarr and have the opportunity to stretch himself offensively in Washington, as well. There are also big fans of Harper in this front office, and the Rutgers guard would give the Wizards a lead playmaker worth building their offense around.

Washington remains committed to its long-haul process and will likely play the lottery again next year, positioning the Wizards to keep taking big swings atop the draft. If their 2024 draft class was any indicator, the Wizards are highly valuing positional size and targeting young players with strong feel. If they don’t end up with a top-two pick, those criteria will still guide what direction they go. — Woo

No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 3: Bailey

Bailey would represent both an immense talent swing, as well as a strong fit positionally, bringing in the type of long, explosive, dynamic perimeter shooting wing scorer every NBA team covets. He’s far from reaching his potential but showed flashes of greatness as a freshman at Rutgers.

He would be an excellent match on paper with the dynamic playmaking prowess of Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball and the offensive versatility, skill level and feel for the game of Brandon Miller, helping to potentially minimize some of Bailey’s shortcomings in those departments. — Givony

What we’re hearing on the Hornets: Less than two years removed from an ownership change and an overhaul of the front office and coaching staff, the Hornets are still firmly in talent acquisition mode, with a lot riding on the results of this year’s draft lottery to propel them out of the doldrums of the NBA.

Miller, the Hornets’ 2023 No. 2 pick, has shown considerable promise when healthy, but missed much of the season with a wrist injury and other ailments. A big decision awaits with the 23-year-old Ball, who has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate, but he has played in only 105 games in the past three seasons because of injuries.

After the failed Mark Williams trade with the Lakers at the deadline, and a somewhat discouraging season from rookie Tidjane Salaun, the Hornets have time on their side but could sorely use good luck on May 12 to propel the franchise in a more defined direction. — Givony

No. 1 pick odds: 12.5% | Top-four pick odds: 48.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Edgecombe
4. Bailey

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 4: Edgecombe

Edgecombe would presumably be quite appealing to New Orleans, a team that has been wanting for young star power in the backcourt. There will be plenty of debate and variance from team to team on which prospect should rank third once Flagg and Harper are off the board, making this range of the draft particularly interesting to parse as the combine approaches.

Some around the league view Edgecombe as a slightly safer choice than Bailey, and he might make more sense for the Pelicans even if both are available. Edgecombe’s physicality and room to develop as a ballhandling option give him a good amount of upside, but there’s a long way for him to go to shoulder that large a role. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Pelicans: It remains to be seen what type of approach the Pelicans will take in the draft with veteran executives Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver now atop the decision-making tree, something rival teams are curious to assess. New Orleans has been treading water the past few seasons, with untimely injuries and Zion Williamson‘s struggles to get on track defining their results.

There’s certainly enough talent on the roster that a positive turnaround next season should be a feasible goal, making this potentially the Pelicans’ best chance to pick near the top of the draft for the foreseeable future. Neither Dumars nor Weaver have historically shied away from taking a big swing, which could make them a wild-card team both in the draft and in the trade market as they inherit a relatively friendly situation from a personnel and draft pick perspective. — Woo

No. 1 pick odds: 10.5% | Top-four pick odds: 42.1%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 5: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma, point guard

Both Fears and Tre Johnson will be getting looks even higher than this slot — potentially starting at No. 3, as there is quite a bit of enthusiasm in NBA circles around both prospects’ long-term futures. Fears’ late-season performances in the SEC and NCAA tournaments highlighted the significant star power and potential he possesses as a primary shot creator who can get paint touches at will, score in a variety of ways and find teammates creatively on the move.

Johnson’s superior positional fit (alongside Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain), readiness to contribute and his size and length will keep him firmly in conversations here, too, with the outcome of workouts, interviews and background research likely to have significant sway in which direction the Sixers (or other teams picking in this range) end up going. — Givony

What we’re hearing on the 76ers: The 76ers went from being one of the top-five contenders in Las Vegas preseason odds to win the championship to finishing with the NBA’s fifth-worst record (24-58). Things could go from bad to worse on the night of the draft lottery if two or more teams jump ahead and push Philadelphia down to the No. 7 pick or lower, meaning their pick would be conveyed to Oklahoma City as part of the Al Horford trade in 2020.

If the Sixers do land in the top six (they have a 64.6% chance), they won’t have an easy decision to make. Do they look to draft the player best equipped to help this iteration of their roster win games next season, or go with the prospect they think will be the best player in five years’ time? — Givony

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No. 1 pick odds: 9.0% | Top-four pick odds: 37.2%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 6: Tre Johnson, Texas, shooting guard

Johnson has elevated his draft stock after a season that showcased his scoring prowess, albeit at the expense of some efficiency. While the Nets have leaned heavily the past couple of seasons on Cam Thomas — another 2-guard who can be similarly ball-dominant — Johnson’s size, youth and offensive upside make him worth consideration for a team that owned the third-worst offensive rating last season.

Johnson’s tendency to take tough shots and bouts of overaggressiveness make him polarizing for scouts, but he is one of the draft’s more talented scorers in an offense-driven league. He’d be a player worth developing who could step into a big role right away in Brooklyn. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Nets: The buzz from rival teams has been the Nets aren’t planning for a true long-haul tank, even after reacquiring their own picks last summer. The Nets have the most salary-cap space in the league this offseason, but with a top-heavy 2026 draft on the horizon and a roster in need of major modifications in order to compete for a playoff spot, patience is still a virtue here.

Brooklyn, currently lacking a centerpiece-caliber player, is in position to swing for upside with this pick regardless of where it falls in the lottery as it figures out what the next iteration of its team will look like. The Nets can afford to wait until the right star becomes available to shift gears. — Woo

No. 1 pick odds: 7.5% | Top-four pick odds: 31.9%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 7: Khaman Maluach, Duke, center

A strong finish to the season — going 22-21 over the final 43 games — diminished the Raptors’ lottery chances and left them hoping for good fortune similar to 2021 when they moved from No. 7 to No. 4 and selected eventual NBA Rookie of the Year and All-Star Scottie Barnes. With Jakob Poeltl entering the final team-controlled season of his contract (player option for 2026-27), it makes sense to consider his successor, as he will turn 30 before the start of the 2025-26 regular season.

Maluach brings the type of length, defensive versatility, intensity and character Toronto’s front office has often coveted, and he is someone the Raptors will be intimately familiar with given their past draft history and Maluach’s South Sudanese and NBA Academy Africa background. (The Raptors drafted the first player from NBA Academy Africa, Ulrich Chomche, last June.) — Givony

What we’re hearing on the Raptors: Surrounding Barnes with the right players and finding the optimal strategy for compensating for his inconsistent 3-point shooting will continue to be a front office priority, especially with Brandon Ingram in the fold.

With most of the team’s core between 21 to 27 years old, it will be interesting to see what kind of offensive jump the Raptors can make next season. The team’s direction with this pick — be it a guard, wing, forward or big man — will shed insight into how to view this existing group. — Givony

No. 1 pick odds: 6.0% | Top-four pick odds: 26.3%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Edgecombe
4. Bailey

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 8: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois, point guard/shooting guard

Jakucionis enters the NBA with the caliber of offensive creativity, intangibles and international background that have traditionally been attractive to the Spurs organization.

While San Antonio has significantly improved its backcourt in the past year by drafting Stephon Castle and trading for De’Aaron Fox, the Spurs should be attracted to Jakucionis’ perimeter shooting, unselfishness and ability to play both guard spots, a skill set that gives him avenues to becoming a quality supporting player on an NBA roster and that makes sense as a developmental investment for the long run. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Spurs: San Antonio has designs on getting a healthy Victor Wembanyama to the playoffs next season, which means it will explore all avenues to improve its roster in the short term and will be involved in the free-agent trade market for established talent.

Wembanyama’s youth and the strength of the Spurs’ position has allowed them to keep the long view in mind, as evidenced by draft night last year when they traded the No. 8 pick to Minnesota for future assets. Drafting well and setting a sustainable long-term foundation around their 21-year-old rising star remains important.

The Fox trade signaled the Spurs’ willingness to be aggressive in accelerating their timeline, and the direction they take with these draft picks might be a referendum on how they view their own needs and the fit of other young players on the roster. — Woo

No. 1 pick odds: 3.8% | Top-four pick odds: 17.3%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 9: Kon Knueppel, Duke, shooting guard/small forward

The Rockets acquired Phoenix’s first-round pick, unprotected, as part of a complex swap with Brooklyn that should yield significant dividends in coming years. After a 52-20 regular season, the Rockets were upset in the first round of the playoffs by the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors, losing in seven games while showing shortcomings in terms of their lack of experience and inconsistency on the offensive end.

With 2023 and 2024 first-rounders Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard struggling for minutes on a deep and talented roster, it remains to be seen what the appetite in Houston will be for adding another young player to the mix.

Knueppel’s perimeter shooting, feel for the game, toughness and maturity would seemingly give him a better chance of cracking the lineup and adding value in the near term than other prospects in this range, especially if the franchise pivots to a Sheppard/Amen Thompson backcourt down the road, with Jalen Green able to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027. — Givony

What we’re hearing on the Rockets: The Rockets will be a significant hub for trade activity in the lead up to draft night, as their roster is clearly in a different place than any other team selecting in the lottery regarding the franchise’s timetable.

There is likely to be significant debate about what the Rockets should do with this pick, as they are a prime target for an “all-in” type of move for a veteran star like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, or Ja Morant, but also they have salary cap and luxury tax implications to think about long-term with Green and Alperen Sengun‘s extensions kicking in this offseason — and significant expenditure on the horizon with several other big decisions looming in the form of Fred VanVleet‘s team option and Steven Adams‘ unrestricted free agency. — Givony

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No. 1 pick odds: 3.8% | Top-four pick odds: 16.9%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 10: Derik Queen, Maryland, power forward/center

Queen brings a level of offensive upside that separates him from the other big men in this draft, but he’ll have to sharpen his habits and turn in more effort defensively to maximize his opportunity to excel in the NBA.

The Trail Blazers have an excellent rim protector in Donovan Clingan who could help cover for Queen in double-big lineups, making him an interesting consideration in this spot if Portland is willing to swing on his talent and play that way. Having an interior playmaker such as Queen might take some pressure off their guards and eventually make their offense more dynamic. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Trail Blazers: Portland’s roster took a small but important step forward this season, with internal development and the addition of Deni Avdija putting them within striking distance of a play-in spot. Ownership rewarded general manager Joe Cronin and coach Chauncey Billups with extensions, providing Blazers leadership some added stability moving forward.

There’s still work to do to improve the team, with Clingan helping solidify the defense, Toumani Camara looking like a find and Scoot Henderson ideally ready for more responsibility. Rival teams have been curious as to what Portland’s competitive timeframe ultimately looks like, and the direction it takes this offseason will be indicative of its urgency to compete. An unlikely stroke of luck in the lottery would be massive in determining that direction. — Woo

No. 1 pick odds: 1.8% | Top-four pick odds: 8.5%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Edgecombe
4. Bailey

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 11: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina, power forward

Murray-Boyles should be ready to contribute off the bench next season, with a level of toughness and maturity to his game that scouts appreciate. His productivity and consistency, even in a losing situation at South Carolina, has kept him in the first-round picture and should make him a consideration for teams that could use immediate depth, such as Dallas.

The Mavs have a true rim protector in Dereck Lively II, who would allow Murray-Boyles to play the 4 spot, the role he’s best suited for physically, and he might be an immediate value add here. In a draft class stacked with younger prospects, the Mavs might want to target a slightly more experienced player here. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Mavericks:

Fallout from the Luka Doncic trade is still reverberating around the NBA, with Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison placing himself and the team under a huge microscope going into next season.

Dallas having its own pick — and a small chance at moving up in the draft — is perhaps some small recompense after a wave of injuries effectively ended its season. The Mavericks should be in the market for a rookie who can help the roster right away or to use this pick to upgrade the team by other means, as the competitive window with Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, assuming full health, doesn’t appear to be a particularly long one. — Woo

No. 1 pick odds: 1.8% | Top-four pick odds: 8%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 12: Egor Demin, BYU, point guard/shooting guard

The Bulls will certainly be hoping for a repeat of last year’s draft, where Matas Buzelis inexplicably fell out of the top 5 to the 11th pick, emerging as a significant find as the season moved on.

Egor Demin is a more polarizing prospect but will be studied closely by every team drafting in this range with his outstanding positional size, feel for the game, playmaking prowess and long-term upside. His fit alongside Josh Giddey, who is a restricted free agent, will need to be considered along with Giddey’s status, but he’s the type of multi-positional prospect who could fit in a variety of lineups if his perimeter shooting progresses as expected. — Givony

What we’re hearing on the Bulls: The Bulls continued to happily tread water this season, losing in the opening round of the play-in tournament after a 39-43 season, a decade removed from their last playoff series win.

The DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine trades signaled the start of a new era in Chicago, leaving the fanbase with little star power to grasp onto and searching for clarity on the franchise’s long-term direction.

The Bulls will likely need to shake up the roster in a more serious way to have a viable chance of avoiding the play-in tournament in the near future. Giddey’s restricted free agency and Coby White‘s availability for an extension will play a significant role in how the Bulls’ salary-cap sheet and roster look long-term, but the front office have holes to fill both in the frontcourt and on the wing. — Givony

No. 1 pick odds: 0.8% | Top-four pick odds: 3.8%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if the Hawks stay at No. 13: Jase Richardson, Michigan State, point guard/shooting guard

Richardson made a good case for himself this season as a solid complementary player with room to grow, displaying well-rounded ability at Michigan State and solid effort playing on and off the ball. That versatility makes sense with the Hawks’ current personnel as a plug-and-play option, rotating in behind and alongside Trae Young and Dyson Daniels with the ability to balance lineups.

The Hawks should also be considering bigs at this spot to develop frontcourt depth, with names such as Joan Beringer and Noa Essengue (both international players) offering interesting upside. — Woo

What we’re hearing on the Hawks and Kings: Sacramento only keeps this pick if it jumps into the top four, otherwise it stays with Atlanta. This would be an obvious coup for the Kings, but those odds are at 3.8%.

The Hawks are entering the offseason in wake of ownership firing Landry Fields, promoting Onsi Saleh to general manager, and are in the market for a president of basketball operations.

The big question for Atlanta, as it seems to be annually, is what will happen with Trae Young, whose season ended on a sour note in a play-in game loss to the Magic. There has been thought for some time that the Hawks might move on from Young, but he has also been a tricky proposition on the trade market because of his sizable contract and Atlanta’s struggles to build a consistent winner around him. The Hawks made progress with their roster last season, with Dyson Daniels breaking through and Zaccharie Risacher becoming an immediate fixture, but those lingering questions will need answering this offseason. — Woo

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No. 14 San Antonio (via Atlanta)

No. 1 pick odds: 0.8% | Top-four pick odds: 3.4%

If they land in the top four, they should pick …

1. Flagg
2. Harper
3. Bailey
4. Edgecombe

Most likely pick if they stay at No. 14: Will Riley, Illinois, shooting guard/small forward

The Spurs receive this pick, their second lottery selection, as part of the shrewd 2022 Dejounte Murray trade that will also yield an unprotected Hawks pick in 2027. The Spurs are in the most enviable position of any team in the lottery, with back-to-back NBA Rookie of the Year winners on cost-controlled contracts with Wembanyama and Castle, and quite a few draft picks and swap rights coming their way in coming years.

Adding shooting both on the perimeter and in the frontcourt likely will be a priority for the franchise long-term, with the likes of Jakucionis, Knueppel, Riley and Carter Bryant (Arizona) all likely to get long looks with the 8th and 14th picks. — Givony

What we’re hearing on the Spurs: The Spurs traded out of the 8th pick last year in exchange for Minnesota’s 2031 unprotected first-round pick and a 2030 top-one protected pick swap, signaling their willingness to take a patient approach to building out the roster. They started to cash in on their pick haul with the Fox trade in February, and how they approach this year’s draft will tell us quite a bit about how they view the roster long-term.

Will they continue to add young players to surround Wembanyama, or do they swing for the fences for a veteran star such as Durant or Antetokounmpo to try and take a larger step toward championship contention? — Givony

Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

Jeremy Woo is an NBA analyst specializing in prospect evaluation and the draft. He was previously a staff writer and draft insider at Sports Illustrated.