2025 SEC Football Betting: Contenders, Playoff odds, team overview, players to watch, and win totals

In ten of the last eleven years, Alabama or Georgia has won the SEC. Rarely in those years, was there much competition for the top spot outside of the Tide and Bulldogs. This season has the makings of something different. You can make a realistic case for four or five teams to win the SEC and contend for the national title.

Eric Froton (@CFFroton) of NBC Sports takes an indepth look at each of these contenders for glory in the SEC offering an overview of each along with a look at players to watch, and if said school will go over or under their projected win total.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Head Coach: Shane Beamer (5th year)
2024 Record: 9-4 (5-3 SEC)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 21-17 to Illinois in the Citrus Bowl
Offense Ranking: 35th
Offensive Returning Starters 6
Defense Ranking: 13th
Defensive Returning Starters: 5

South Carolina Team Overview

South Carolina capped its 2024 campaign with a 9-4 record (5-3 in the SEC), a breakthrough season that included an SEC Coach of the Year award for Shane Beamer and marked the program’s strongest run under his leadership. The Gamecocks posted strong efficiency metrics, finishing with an 11.0-point-per-game margin (21st nationally), nearly +1.0 net yard per play advantage (25th), +1.79 yards per pass attempt (20th), and a +0.162 EPA/play edge (20th). Looking ahead to 2025, South Carolina returns 58.5% of its total production, with the offense bringing back 67.16% (24th nationally) and the defense returning 49.83% (79th). That continuity, combined with a strong roster core and the arrival of veteran offensive coordinator Mike Shula, provides a competitive foundation to help offset the challenging schedule.

South Carolina Player to Watch

LaNorris Sellers was a dual-threat centerpiece for South Carolina in 2024, completing 64.8% of his passes for 2,534 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while averaging 8.37 yards per attempt. On the ground, he added 674 rushing yards and 7 scores, showing a knack for explosive plays with 26 runs of 10+ yards and 49 scrambles. Sellers’ ability to stretch defenses vertically and punish them with his legs makes him one of the SEC’s most dynamic returning quarterbacks.

South Carolina makes the College Football Playoff if:

QB Sellers goes supernova, WR Nyck Harbor lives up to his freaky athletic traits, Edge Dylan Stewart terrorizes SEC signal callers en route to First Team All-SEC recognition, and the six defensive line transfers perform well enough to absorb the loss of several front-seven NFL draftees.

South Carolina Win Total at DraftKings

South Carolina has to clear 7.5 Wins (Under -165) despite suffering massive losses on the defensive side of the ball. Compounding matters is their schedule is the 4th toughest and includes brutal non-conference games against Virginia Tech (neutral site in Atlanta) and Clemson. They’re likely underdogs in road games at Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, and still have to find a way to beat Alabama and Oklahoma at home. I’m leaning Under 7.5 Wins but didn’t play it due to the prohibitive -165 vig.

Texas A&M Aggies

Head Coach: Mike Elko
2024 Record: 8-5 (5-3 SEC)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 35-31 to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl
Offense Ranking: 21st
Offensive Returning Starters: 7
Defense Ranking: 19th
Defensive Returning Starters: 6

Texas A&M Team Overview

The Aggies enter the 2025 season poised to rebound after an up-and-down 8–5 campaign in the SEC, standing at No. 19 in the preseason AP poll. Their +6.2 points-per-game margin (37th nationally) tells of a competitive squad that often stayed in games, supported by sound fundamentals when facing upper echelon competition. The Aggies moved the ball at a middling 5.72 yards per play clip (67th) and generated a modest 2.34 points per drive (53rd). On defense, they held steady with a +0.52 net yards-per-play advantage (37th) and a positive EPA/play differential of +0.065 (50th). Most importantly, A&M returns a substantial chunk of its roster, 71% on offense and 73% on defense, ranking among the national leaders in continuity.

Texas A&M Player to Watch

Marcel Reed completed 60.5% of his passes for 1,864 yards with a 7.7 yards per attempt average, throwing 15 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. He posted a 68.5 offensive grade with a 64.6 passing mark, while showing mobility with 543 rushing yards (4.7 YPC) and 7 rushing touchdowns. His ability to extend plays is reflected in 309 designed rushing yards and 22 runs of 10+ yards, but his 53.6 fumble grade and 7 total turnovers highlight ball security concerns.

Texas A&M makes the College Football Playoff if:

Marcel Reed evolves from promising mobile quarterback to bonafide dual-threat weapon who completes 67% of his throws and elevates the offense, their Joe Moore Award-caliber offensive line that returns 156 career starts lives up to its billing and churns out over 200 rushing YPG, and the defensive line replaces the prodigious production of their three departed NFL draftees

Texas A&M Win Total at DraftKings

The Aggies Over 8.5 Wins line is currently slanted to the Under -180. A Week 3 road matchup at Notre Dame will set the tone heading into SEC play where A&M dodges both Georgia and Alabama. Their toughest games are all on the road at Notre Dame, at LSU, and at Texas but the Aggies could very well sweep their seven home games. The Aggies were one game away from the SEC Championship last year. With a full year of experience under the belt of QB Reed, A&M is a reasonable shot to make the CFP Playoff at +220 and is worth a value play at Over 8.5 Wins +150.

Georgia Bulldogs

Head Coach: Kirby Smart
2024 Record: 11-3 (6-2 SEC)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Notre Dame 23-10 in the CFP Sugar Bowl
Offense Ranking: 10th
Offensive Returning Starters: 4
Defense Ranking: 9th
Defensive Returning Starters: 5

Georgia Team Overview

Georgia enters the 2025 season ranked No. 10 in the FBS power rankings, coming off an 11–3 (6–2 SEC) campaign capped by an overtime victory in the SEC Championship Game and a Sugar Bowl (CFP quarterfinal) defeat to Notre Dame. The Bulldogs’ overall PPG margin (10.7) and efficiency metrics, including net yards per play and net points per drive, land in the Top 30 nationally. With nearly half (47 %) of offensive production and just over half (52%) of defensive production returning, the Bulldogs will have to make up for heavy losses on the defensive line. Veteran quarterback Carson Beck transferred to Miami, paving the way for sophomore Gunner Stockton to take the reins as QB1.

Georgia Player to Watch

QB Gunner Stockton takes over for Carson Beck and is expected to get the starting nod for the Dawgs. He completed 66.7% of his passes for 305 yards (6.4 YPA) and a 55.6 pass grade in the postseason, with an ultra-conservative 7.5 ADOT. How he performs will dictate the direction of a UGA program that has its sights set on a SEC Championship.

Georgia makes the College Football Playoff if:

UGA is able to overcome the losses to the defensive front, QB Stockton takes to the starting role, and the young rebuilt offensive line is able to clear the way for 5.0+ YPC after posting their lowest rushing production in several years (4.1 YPC) in 2024.

Georgia Win Total at DraftKings

The Dawgs play the 44th toughest schedule nationally and check in at 9.5 Wins (Over -180) for their season win total. Their two toughest games come in Athens against Alabama and Texas, with the rest of their schedule being quite manageable despite a road trip to Tennessee and the annual neutral site Cocktail Party against Florida. While I lean Over given the immensely talented roster, the -180 vig makes the Over 9.5 Wins cost prohibitive considering the instability at QB.

LSU Tigers

Head Coach: Brian Kelly (4th year)
2024 Record: 9-4 (5-3 SEC)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Defeated Baylor 44-31 in the Texas Bowl
Offense Ranking: 11th
Offensive Returning Starters: 7
Defense Ranking: 34th
Defensive Returning Starters: 6

LSU Team Overview

The Tigers enter 2025 with legitimate playoff aspirations after a 9–4 season that saw flashes of high-end potential but also stretches of inconsistency. The Tigers bring back over 62% of their production, including key playmakers on both sides of the ball, giving them a Top 20 roster nationally. Offensively, they were efficient moving the ball at 6.10 yards per play and posted a 44.92% success rate but often stalled and failed to finish drives against elite defenses. Defensively, allowing 24 points per game kept them competitive, yet the secondary’s struggles against explosive passing attacks remain a concern. With a balanced returning core and a physical SEC-caliber roster, LSU has the pieces to push for the conference title if they can tighten up their efficiency in big games.

LSU Player to Watch

QB Garrett Nussmeier delivered a highly productive 2024 campaign, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns while maintaining a 64.0% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt. He posted an 84.5 offensive grade and an 81.3 passing grade, with an impressive 71.4% adjusted completion rate despite 23 drops from his receivers. Nussmeier also showed strong pocket presence, taking just 15 sacks on 153 dropbacks under pressure and generating 26 big-time throws.

LSU makes the College Football Playoff if:

DC Blake Baker’s defense comes together in year two of his tenure and looks like a rerun of his stout 2023 Missouri unit, QB Nussmeier makes a run at the Heisman Trophy, and WR Chris Hilton becomes the next great wideout in LSU’s long illustrious history at the position.

LSU Win Total at DraftKings

LSU’s line site at 8.5 Wins (Over -150) with their season kicking off Week 1 at Clemson. Even if they can outlast CU, the 6th-toughest schedule in the country awaits with home games against Florida and Texas A&M with road tilts at Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma. This is Brian Kelly’s best team and finally has a legitimate defense to rely upon, so I lean Over 8.5 Wins despite the brutal schedule.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2024 Record: 9-4 (5-3 SEC)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Michigan 19-13 in the Reliaquest Bowl
Offense Ranking: 6th
Offensive Returning Starters: 6
Defense Ranking: 8th
Defensive Returning Starters: 8

Alabama Team Overview

Alabama enters the 2025 season ranked No. 8 in the AP rankings after a 9–4 (5–3 SEC) campaign in 2024, boasting one of the most talented rosters in the country despite a slight dip in overall roster strength from last year. The Crimson Tide feature a balanced profile, ranking Top 15 nationally in net yards per play (1.60, 10th) and net points per drive (1.36, 13th). Offensively, Alabama averaged 34.0 points per game (21st) with a top-10 passing yards-per-attempt mark (8.96) but will look to improve a modest 46.1% success rate (30th). The defense returns nearly 70% of its production (13th nationally) and finished 2024 allowing just 17.4 points per game (11th) and 4.89 yards per play (17th). With the Kalen Debouer/Ryan Grubbs combo back together on offense and elite defensive talent, Alabama remains firmly in the SEC title conversation and a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.

Alabama Player to Watch

Ryan Williams emerged as Alabama’s top deep threat in 2024, catching 45 passes for 865 yards (19.0 YPR) and 8 touchdowns while averaging 2.79 yards per route run. He forced 16 missed tackles, averaged 14.7 yards of target depth and caught 54% of his contested targets while showcasing highlight reel ability that has Williams pegged as a surefire first-round NFL Draft selection in 2027.

Alabama makes the College Football Playoff if:

The quarterback position stabilizes behind either opening day starter Ty Simpson or five-star freshman phenom Keelon Russell, the defense revitalizes its pass rush after posting their lowest sack total (24) in almost a decade, and Alabama wins on the road in Athens and holds serve by defeating LSU at home in Week 11.

Alabama Win Total at DraftKings

The Tide are tasked with clearing 9.5 Wins at a balanced -120 Over. Their 21st-ranked schedule is reasonable despite a pair of P4 non-conference games against rebuilding programs at FSU and at home against Wisconsin. They draw Georgia in Athens Week 5 but the rest of their SEC road schedule is quite manageable with games at Missouri, South Carolina, and Auburn. Their toughest home opponents are Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. HC Kalen DeBoer had a full offseason to construct his roster and now Alabama is ready to make a run at the National Championship. I’m taking Over 9.5 Wins for Bama.

Texas Longhorns

Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (5th year)
2024 Record: 13-3
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Ohio State 28-14 in the CFP Cotton Bowl
Offense Ranking: 13th
Offensive Returning Starters: 4
Defense Ranking: 2nd
Defensive Returning Starters: 6

Texas Team Overview

Texas enters 2025 as one of the SEC’s most complete teams, ranking Top 10 nationally in scoring defense (15.3 PPG allowed) and dominating up front with a ferocious defensive line rotation (46 sacks LY) led by EDGE Colin Simmons, who posted 9 sacks as a freshman. Offensively, they averaged 33.0 points and 437.5 yards per game, despite allowing 37 sacks. HC Steve Sarkisian orchestrated a potent passing attack that threw 40 touchdowns at a 154.46 passer rating, along with a middling 4.3 yards per rush average that can be improved upon. With a roster stacked with blue-chip talent and a generational QB ready to make the leap, Texas looks poised to contend for both the SEC crown and a College Football Playoff berth.

Texas Player to Watch

QB Arch Manning played in seven games, completing 61 of 90 passes (67.8%) for 939 yards with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions, posting an elite 126.1 passer rating. He thrived pushing the ball downfield with an 11.1 ADOT and 10.4 yards per attempt, while also adding 146 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. His strong PFF grades across passing (81.0) and running (81.1) show him as a dynamic dual-threat.

Texas makes the College Football Playoff if:

Arch ascends to realize his lofty QB legacy and is locked onto WRs Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore downfield. The new starting defensive tackles mesh quickly as the interior of the defensive line maintains Texas’ elite run defense standard. Texas is currently listed at -320 to make the playoff, so it’s far more likely to happen than not.

Texas Win Total at DraftKings

The line on Texas hangs at 9.5 Wins (Over-9.5 -180) and kicks off in style with a Week 1 showdown in Columbus against Ohio State (Texas -2.5). The rest of their non-conference schedule is a breeze, and UT has four challenging SEC games at Florida, home vs. Oklahoma, at Georgia, and at home against in-state rival Texas A&M. The Longhorns are legitimate national championship contenders and will be favored in just about every game except for maybe against Georgia in Athens. I have a hard time believing Texas loses three games, but the value has been zapped from this line at -180, making it a stay away.

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