Not one of the top four seeds in any region lost in the Opening Round of last season’s NCAA Tournament. Just one double digit seed (Arkansas as a 10-seed) advanced to the Sweet 16. Chalk prevailed by and large throughout the tournament. Will this year’s tournament unfold in a similar fashion? There have to be upsets! Doesn’t there?
We’ve looked at the Opening Round in both the East and Midwest Regions. Lets dive into the South Region and offer a look at each game of the First Round.
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*odds provided by DraftKings
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2026 NCAA Tournament: South Region
The South is home to the defending champs. The Florida Gators are looking to repeat as champions just as UConn did just a couple seasons ago. Their success will more than likely depend on how well their backcourt shoots the ball. It was a big issue early this season. It looked to be solved as the Gators dominated late in the season, but the issue resurfaced a bit in the SEC Tournament.
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Prairie View/Lehigh
Spread: TBD
Total: TBD
Congrats to whomever wins the First Four game in Dayton between Prairie View and Lehigh. You earn a trip to Tampa and a chance to dance with the defending national champs and top seed in the South, the Florida Gators. It should be over early. Smart money will be on the Gators’ Point Total OVER.
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No. 8 Clemson Tigers (+114) vs. No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes (-135)
Spread: Iowa -2.5
Total: 128.5
This line opened Iowa -1.5 with the Total set at 130.5.
This matchup features Clemson’s overall balance and exceptional defense against Bennett Stirtz. The transfer from Drake was exceptional against Missouri last season. Can Stirtz be held in check? He’ll need to be in order to compensate for Clemson’s underwhelming offense. Lean to Iowa laying the number.
Read More: Nicole Auerbach’s Bracket
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores (-625) vs. No. 12 McNeese (+455)
Spread: Vanderbilt -11.5
Total: 150.5
This line opened Vanderbilt -10.5 with the Total set at 150.5.
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Vanderbilt enters the tournament ranked higher than every 4-seed in the tourney but sits on the 5-line somehow. This game features two schools that like to get out and run. McNeese is a small team that ranks #1 in the country in defensive turnover percentage…but Vandy does not have an issue turning over the ball. McNeese’s inability to knock down shots ultimately will doom them especially since the Commodores appear to have refound their mojo. Play Vandy to cover with a sprinkle on their Team Total OVER.
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1000) vs. No. 13 Troy Trojans (+650)
Spread: Nebraska -12.5
Total: 137.5
This line opened Nebraska -15.5 with the Total set at 134.5.
Neither of these teams has won an NCAA Tournament game…ever. The Huskers went just 7-6 in the second half of the season. Troy won 5 of their last 6. Both these teams are strong defending the perimeter, but what it all boils down to is the Trojans only win if they get an outlier performance while Nebraska just needs to play like Nebraska has played for the better part of the season. The lean is Nebraska laying the 12.5 points.
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No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels (-142) vs. No. 11. VCU Rams (+120)
Spread: UNC -2.5
Total: 153.5
This line opened North Carolina -1.5 with the Total set at 155.5.
The story is all about UNC’s ability to play minus their standout freshman, Caleb Wilson. They have had time to adjust and to a degree have done so, but they remain noticeably worse on both ends without him. Meanwhile, VCU looks ready to wear a glass slipper. They are deep and balanced. Take the Rams on the Moneyline.
NBC Sports’ John Fanta (@John_Fanta) has UNC on Upset Alert:
“I hate the Caleb Wilson news at North Carolina. I thought he would have made all the difference. I think the Tar Heels are going to fall to Phil Martelli Jr.’s VCU Rams.”
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No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (-6500) at No. 14 Pennsylvania Quakers (+2000)
Spread: Illinois -24.5
Total: 150.5
This line opened Illinois -20.5 with the Total set at 149.5.
Tough to find a path for Penn in this one. The Quakers are undersized, and Illinois is the tallest team in the nation. Penn ranks outside the Top 200 on offense while Illinois ranks No. 2 in offensive efficiency. Neither team is good on defense, but the Illini’s size should set the tone in this one. Take the Illini and lay the big number.
NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) is calling for the major upset:
“I’m picking Penn over Illinois based solely on the fact, very biased from watching the Ivy League Championship game. T.J. Power was unbelievable…and Fran McCaffrey…wouldn’t that be something.”
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No. 7 St. Mary’s Gaels (-162) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (+136)
Spread: Saint Mary’s -3.5
Total: 147.5
This line opened Saint Mary’s -3.5 with the Total set at 148.5.
Both these teams shoot the ball from the field and the line extremely well. The difference may well lie in the Aggies’ inability to get stops at the rim. In addition, Randy Bennett has the Gaels running a little more than in the past. One or two easy transition buckets may well be the difference in this one. Take the Saint Mary’s Gaels on the Moneyline.
No. 2 Houston Cougars (-8000) vs. No. 15 Idaho Vandals (+2200)
Spread: Houston -23.5
Total: 136.5
This line opened Houston -19.5 with the Total set at 133.5.
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Both these schools really compete every possession. Neither shoots the ball particularly well. Both crash the boards hard. Houston simply has more talent and will ultimately outlast an Idaho team making its first appearance in the Dance in three decades.
Still to come: a breakdown of the West Region. Does Tommy Lloyd finally get over the hump?
