2026 NFL free agency: Projecting deals for QB Malik Willis

While this NFL offseason doesn’t project to have as much exciting quarterback movement as previous years, one free agent has certainly jumped out. Quarterback Malik Willis, who was drafted by the Titans in the third round of the 2022 draft, has spent two serviceable seasons with the Packers as Jordan Love‘s backup. Willis is a true wild card in this free agent class, though. He has only six career starts, but his upside could land him a deal worth $20-$30 million per year.

Ahead of the legal negotiating window for NFL free agency on Monday, we wanted to simulate the market for Willis. How? We came up with a list of six teams that could be interested: the Browns, Cardinals, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers and Vikings. Then, we asked the NFL Nation reporters who cover those teams to serve as their respective GMs and either make a deal or pass on the negotiations. Once all the offers came in, national NFL reporter Dan Graziano played the role of Willis’ rep and chose the best deal for the QB.

Before getting into the negotiations, let’s start with a little background on Willis’ career and what he brings from NFL analyst Ben Solak.

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Teams that passed | Teams that offered
Willis signs with …

2025 team: Green Bay Packers
Matt Bowen’s free agency ranking: No. 14

2025 passing stats: 422 yards, 3 TD passes, 0 INTs
2025 rushing stats: 123 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs

What he brings: The 26-year-old has only six career starts — three with the Titans and three with the Packers — during his four-year career. All six were spot starts behind an injured QB, and his reps with the Titans were brutal. Willis had no touchdowns and three interceptions, completed just 50% of his passes, was sacked 10 times and averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in Tennessee. He had some value as a rusher, with 27 carries for 123 yards and a score but not nearly enough to move the needle.

In Green Bay, Willis showed some of the talent that got him drafted in Round 3 in 2022. In 11 games, Willis had 42 carries for 261 yards and three scores. That 6.2 yards-per-rush mark would be fourth behind Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Spencer Rattler over the past two seasons among passers with 100-plus dropbacks. Willis’ 13% scramble rate and 11.8% explosive run rate would lead all QBs. This guy is a legitimate threat with the ball.

But it’s the improvement as a passer that really stands out. Over those two seasons, Willis has gone 70-of-89 (79% completion rate) for 972 yards, and that 10.9 yards per attempt ranks miles ahead of second place (Lamar Jackson at 8.7). His 9.2 yards per dropback is also miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 7.7). And his 86.3 total QBR is miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 69.9). — Solak

Three teams that opted to pass

General manager Andrew Berry said Cleveland will look into the quarterback market, and new head coach Todd Monken hasn’t committed to any of the three quarterbacks he inherited. Monken would value the mobility that Willis provides, but the Browns are expected to invest significant resources this offseason into the offensive line. To do that, they will free enough cap space for free agency, but between Deshaun Watson‘s $46 million salary, needs elsewhere and Willis’ slim résumé, Cleveland might not have the appetite for Willis’ salary demands. — Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter

There’s an obvious connection between Willis and new Dolphins decision-makers Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley, who both arrived from Green Bay. But that’s not enough for Miami to circumnavigate a difficult salary cap situation. Sullivan is not hellbent on finding the Dolphins’ next franchise quarterback during this cycle and said the team won’t be a big spender when signing players in free agency. With roughly 30 free agents of its own to take care of and dwindling cap space, Miami would opt for structural moves rather than take a swing on Willis. — Marcel Louis-Jacques, Dolphins reporter

It’s not quite Aaron Rodgers or bust, but like a year ago, Pittsburgh isn’t likely to spend big to sign a free agent quarterback — especially not one with limited starts. The Steelers could’ve retained Justin Fields a year ago, but they weren’t willing to pay the two-year, $40 million deal — with $30 million guaranteed — he ultimately fetched from the Jets. Willis’ market could be somewhere around there, which the Steelers would not feel confident in committing to even if new coach Mike McCarthy could develop him into a franchise QB. — Brooke Pryor, Steelers reporter

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Three teams that made mock offers

Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss’ offer: Two years, $33 million. The deal includes a $19 million signing bonus.

The Cardinals will be looking for a new quarterback come mid-March as they are expected to release Kyler Murray. Willis is an intriguing option, as there’s familiarity with him. General manager Monti Ossenfort spent 2022 in Tennessee with Willis, while new coach Mike LaFleur’s brother (Matt) just coached him in Green Bay.

Willis wouldn’t be the long-term answer for the Cardinals, so the risk is overpaying him for a season in which they don’t exactly know what they’re getting. Paying him in excess of $25 million per year would be a massive risk, which is why I’m offering less here. — Weinfuss

Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert’s offer: One year, $20 million (fully guaranteed).

At the very least, the Vikings want to acquire a quarterback who will push J.J. McCarthy in a summerlong competition for the starting job. Could that be Willis? The truth is he will have better opportunities elsewhere with a clearer path to a starting job. And he’ll certainly get better financial offers. But the Vikings would be offering him one season to throw to wide receiver Justin Jefferson and play in coach Kevin O’Connell’s downfield passing offense.

For someone with only 155 career attempts, Willis could produce the type of season that would make him a very rich man in 2027. — Seifert

Jets reporter Rich Cimini’s offer: Two years, $40 million ($30 million guaranteed). The deal includes a $15 million signing bonus and $5 million base salary (guaranteed) in the first year. In Year 2, $10 million of the $20 million base is guaranteed.

If at first you don’t succeed …

This is the Justin Fields contract, which is likely to be terminated at some point this offseason. The Jets need to take another swing at finding a starting QB, and this contract is a good balance for the player and the team. It’s fair value for an unproven player with upside (20th among QBs in average annual value), yet it protects the Jets if Willis fails to meet expectations in 2026. In that case, they can turn to the 2027 draft, which is expected to be QB rich. The Jets have three first-round picks next year. — Cimini

The decision: Willis agrees to a new deal with the … Vikings

Willis goes to Minnesota here. Sure, there are higher offers and more guarantees with the Cardinals and Jets, but I don’t really like the idea of a two-year deal. Worst case, Willis gets hurt or plays poorly, leading Arizona or New York to cut him. Best case, he is great … and then underpaid in 2027.

But playing for O’Connell and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, as well as throwing to Jefferson, would give Willis the best chance to have a huge year and really cash in next offseason. — Graziano