March Madness is known for bracket-busters and Cinderella runs, but upsets are rare in the Women’s NCAA Tournament and surprises have been few and far between. That could change this year.
The lowest seed to win a national championship in the women’s NCAA basketball tournament’s 44-year history has been a No. 3 seed, and it has only happened three times, most recently the LSU Tigers in 2023. But as parity increases across women’s basketball, several teams could be on upset watch. Think of when No. 16 seed Harvard upset No. 1 seed Stanford in the first round in 1998.
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Here are five bold predictions that could rock your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket as March Madness officially gets underway on Wednesday, March 18 with the First Four:
Kansas State Wildcats guard Aniya’ Foy (5) attempts to bypass BYU Cougars center Lara Rohkohl (13) during the first half at T-Mobile Center on Mar 6, 2026 in Kansas City, MO, USA.
Tennessee eliminates NC State in first round
Tennessee’s streak of never missing an NCAA Tournament was in danger after the team’s late-season slump, where it lost 10 of its last 12 games. Tennessee enters the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament on a seven-game losing streak and team morale appears to be at an all-time low, but look for the Lady Volunteers to correct course against No. 7 NC State in the first round. Tennessee narrowly lost to NC State 80-77 to open the season in November, but it won’t end its season how it started. Senior Janiah Barker and junior Malaysia Cooper have experience on their side and the duo will lead the Last Volunteers to their first win in more than a month.
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Rhode Island upsets Alabama in first round
“I wouldn’t want to be Rhode Island’s opponent in the first round,” South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley said Sunday during a conversation with Rhode Island’s head coach Tammi Reiss, her former backcourt partner at Virginia. Rhode Island may be a mid-major conference making its first appearance since 1996, but the Rams have come to play. Rhode Island compiled a program-record 28 games this season and the team is looking for its first NCAA Tournament win in program history. Look for Rhode Island senior guard Brooklyn Gray to lead the way. “We’re not going to show that we are just happy to be on the stage. We’re going to enjoy it and we’re going to win,” Reiss said. Alabama is coming off an SEC Tournament quarterfinal loss to Texas during which no Crimson Tide player reached double-digits in scoring.
Notre Dame ousts Ohio State in second round
Notre Dame junior guard Hannah Hidalgo is a walking highlight reel. Hidalgo, the two-time ACC player of the year and defensive player of the year, paced the nation in steals per game (5.4) and her 25.2 points per game ranks third overall. Hidalgo has been sensational for the Fighting Irish this season, but Notre Dame hasn’t reached its typical regular-season success due to the team’s lack of depth. Senior Cassandre Prosper, however, will step up and have a big game in her final March Madness run. Ohio State sophomore guard Jaloni Cambridge upped her points per game from 15.4 last season to 22.8 in a breakout campaign, but the Buckeyes will make their third consecutive second-round exit.
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TCU outlasts Iowa in Sweet 16
TCU is coming into March Madness extra motivated after dropping the Big 12 final to West Virginia, and the duo of Olivia Miles and Marta Suarez will lift the Horned Frogs to the Elite Eight for the second consecutive season. Iowa suffered a 96-45 loss to UCLA in the Big Ten final, the kind of lopsided result that can rattle your confidence ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Iowa senior forward Hannah Stuelke has been dealing with a shoulder injury and her health will be paramount for the Hawkeyes. Stuelke was held scoreless in 25 minutes of play in the Big Ten final.
West Virginia defeats Texas in Sweet 16
This is the boldest of my predictions. If West Virginia makes it past Kentucky in the second round, they could clash with Texas. West Virginia’s brand of basketball is very disruptive, which could be a problem for Madison Booker and Rori Harmon. The Mountaineers make points hard to come by for their opponents with constant pressure and full-court presses. West Virginia upset TCU in the Big 12 Tournament final behind a 21-point performance by Jordan Harrison and earned the right to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1992. The Mountaineers have heart and a chip on their shoulder, which makes them extremely dangerous.
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Reach USA TODAY National Women’s Sports Reporter Cydney Henderson at chenderson@gannett.com and follow her on X at @CydHenderson.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2026 NCAA Tournament bold predictions for women’s March Madness
