The post 3 reasons Mercury will beat Liberty in 2025 WNBA Playoffs appeared first on ClutchPoints.
Facing the defending WNBA champions in the opening round is no easy task for the Phoenix Mercury. Even after defeating the New York Liberty 3-1 in the regular season series and clinching home court advantage, the playoffs are a different beast.
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Everyone is 0-0, and everything that happened in the regular season is just about obsolete. Still, some elements from the Mercury and Liberty’s matchup should intrigue Phoenix fans.
There are three particular reasons why the Mercury could take down the reigning champions.
Continuity plays into Mercury’s Big 3 vs Liberty’s Big 3
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Experience is key. And while players on both sides have plenty of championship experience, New York was plagued with injuries throughout the season.
The same could be said of the Mercury, who missed Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack to open the season. Shortly thereafter, Satou Sabally picked up a lingering ankle injury that carried into the All-Star break.
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Since then, though, the Mercury’s Big 3 have played 19 games together, and the last 15. That continuity is huge, considering the chemistry that New York already has.
Still, there are some holes to poke in this argument. The Liberty have championship experience, and this is the third year of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu playing together.
They have that advantage over Phoenix, but the latter’s trio of Satou Sabally, MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas, and Copper pose some serious matchup problems.
Versatility, defense, and true 3-level scoring make this lineup a problem for other teams. For instance, Thomas tied a Mercury franchise record with 15 assists against the Liberty early in the season.
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The past two weeks, Phoenix hasn’t had many injuries. That’s not to test their luck, but to show that consistency is key, and could be a difference maker.
Mercury’s small-ball lineup can negate Liberty’s size
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At the beginning of the 2025 season, the Liberty had plenty of size in the front court. Jonquel Jones, Leonie Fiebich, and Nyarra Sabally are just a few of the names.
Those players are big for their respective positions, especially Fiebich, who is a 6-foot-4 guard and bigger than most forwards. Not to mention, they only got bigger when the Liberty signed free agent Emma Meesseman.
As a result, head coach Sandy Brondello has experimented with a plethora of lineups. For instance, she’s played Stewart, Jones, and Meesseman in the same lineup.
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It’s been a slower lineup (averaging a 96.64 pace, compared to 100.42 per 40 minutes). If that lineup played the entire season, it would still be the second-fastest in the league.
That statistic is impressive to say the least. But this is where Phoenix’s small-ball attack comes in.
After the Mercury signed DeWanna Bonner earlier in the season, she provides the size and shooting touch from outside. Phoenix can play a five-out offense when she subs in for Mack.
Bonner might not be strong enough to contain Jones or Meesseman on the inside, but her length presents a shot-blocking problem for New York.
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Depending on the matchup, she’s typically the closer in the game. Bonner will likely be out there to exploit the size and keep the defense glued to the perimeter.
She has 14 games played with the other four starters and has 44 minutes played. Considering she joined midway through the season, it’s clear what direction Phoenix wants to go to close a game.
However, the game slows down to the half-court; it could be a sweep for New York. On the flip side, if the Mercury accelerates their already up-tempo and transition attack, they’ll be difficult to stop.
Hustle points are huge for both teams
© Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
A major element Brondello mentioned was the Liberty’s lack of effort the last time her team and Phoenix squared off. Even from the press box, there were plenty of chances for New York to take control.
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Phoenix managed to pull away thanks to outworking the Liberty. Loose balls, players diving into the crowd, and onto the floor for a chance at another possession are huge.
Also, when someone like Thomas is doing that, it sets the tone for the rest of the team.
However, this goes back to taking advantage of New York’s size. That big lineup with Stewart, Jones, and Meesseman could simply be too big to go after loose-ball opportunities.
In the playoffs, little things like those can swing the momentum of the game and the series.
Although Brondello has mentioned experimenting with different lineups, including the “jumbo” lineup, now might not be the best time.
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For Phoenix, it could be as advantageous as ever if it plays its cards right.
Either way, both teams could have the most entertaining and thrilling first-round series of them all. But it’s also a chance for the Mercury to make some noise by knocking off the 2024 WNBA champions.
Related: Mercury’s Nate Tibbetts sees ‘great series’ vs. Liberty in 2025 WNBA playoffs
Related: Mercury’s Alyssa Thomas sets new WNBA record with rapid triple-double vs. Sparks
