When NASCAR announced the return of The Chase championship format ahead of the 2026 season, the decision received overwhelming praise from drivers around the sport. While we’re only three races into the season, there are a few big names in the Cup Series who could now be in jeopardy come time for the Chase.
Let’s dive into our list of the four NASCAR drivers who are already in some trouble under the new Chase championship format.
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Austin Cindric
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In the No. 2 for Team Penske, Austin Cindric has the equipment and supporting cast to be a perennial playoff contender in a 16-driver field. He reached the Round of 12 in 2025, 2024, and 2022. The fact that NASCAR brought back The Chase with 16 drivers making it in should mean that Cindric has a relatively easy path to making it in. However, coming out of Circuit of the Americas, he’s 31st on the points leaderboard and 29 points behind Ryan Preece. While that’s a small gap given there are 23 races remaining in the regular season, Cindric is further back of drivers who many viewed as borderline playoff contenders like Shane van Gisbergen (51-point gap), Michael McDowell (44-point gap), Carson Hocevar (43-point gap) and Brad Keselowski (39-point gap). Cindric has given himself very little margin for error moving forward. There’s now a real chance he could be the only Team Penske driver to miss the playoffs, which would be the second time in the last four years he didn’t make it in. Not exactly a great outcome in a contract year.
Related: NASCAR Points Standings after COTA
Alex Bowman
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Maybe the theme in the first season of The Chase’s return will be drivers from a pair of NASCAR’s top teams not even making it into the final 16. At the very least, that’s become an increasingly likely reality for Alex Bowman and the No. 48 team. Teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson have both had some issues this season, but they each have more than three times as many points as Bowman (23 points) through three races. Bowman has the worst average finishing position (33.0) of full-time drivers; meanwhile, even Cody Ware (37 points and 24.7 average finishing position) is outperforming the driver who has Hendrick Motorsports equipment and a good staff around him. Given that Bowman has just one Cup Series win since 2023, it’s not even like he has a good shot at the 15-point bonus for going to victory lane. Missing the playoffs almost feels inevitable, and if that happens in 2026, it’s fair to wonder exactly what team will have a spot for Bowman at this level next season.
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Read More: Denny Hamlin Shares When NASCAR Drivers Should Be Worried About Points In-Season
Austin Dillon
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We might be approaching that time where Austin Dillon needs to be thinking more about his future as the next decision-maker of Richard Childress Racing than making the playoffs as a driver. Dillon made the playoffs under the win-and-in format last season, but that’s been the only reason in recent years he’s got a ticket to the 16-driver playoff field. That’s now off the table; Dillon already finds himself 33 points back of the 16th and final spot in The Chase, and that gap seems likely to widen in the weeks to come. He’ll be 36 years old in April, so perhaps the best path to perennial playoff contention for Dillon is as the architect of RCR’s future lineup.
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Related: Legacy Could Poach Richard Childress Racing Driver for 2027
Denny Hamlin
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Denny Hamlin said last month that he was extremely confident the NASCAR Cup Series champion in 2026 would finish the regular season in the top three. That’s because The Chase format gives such a points advantage to the top three drivers that anyone behind them would need to go on a dominant run through the 10-race Chase to have any real shot at winning it all by Homestead. Unfortunately for Hamlin, he’s already 54 points behind third (Chase Elliott) and even further back of Bubba Wallace in second (56-point gap), and he trails Tyler Reddick in first by 126 points. Could he overtake Wallace? It’s possible. However, the No. 11 is now in a position where even a few DNFs, the remaining road courses and a few days outside the top 10 might keep him out of that top three. Given what he said just a few weeks ago, Hamlin’s championship hopes are fading.
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Related: NASCAR Power Rankings after COTA, 10 Best NASCAR Drivers Right Now
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