Martin Buday vs. Marcus Buchecha prediction, odds, pick for UFC Abu Dhabi

UFC Abu Dhabi: Robert Whittaker versus Marcus Buchecha kicks off the prelims with a fight between Martin Buday and Marcus Buchecha in the heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Buday-Buchecha prediction and pick.

Martin Buday (15-2) has won back-to-back decisions, most recently outmuscling Uran Satybaldiev with his size for a unanimous nod after edging out veteran Andrei Arlovski by split decision. Now, Buday will attempt to extend his streak and spoil Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida’s rise at UFC Fight Night this weekend.

Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida (5-1) rebounded from his first career loss, a grueling decision against Oumar Kane, by submitting Amir Aliakbari with a decisive first-round rear-naked choke at ONE 169. Buchecha now looks to impose his world-class grappling and halt Martin Buday’s UFC momentum in their heavyweight showdown this weekend.

Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Abu Dhabi odds: Martin Buday-Marcus Buchecha odds

Martin Buday: +250

Marcus Buchecha: -310

Over 1.5 rounds: -130

Under 1.5 rounds: +100

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Why Martin Buday will win

• Last Fight: (W) Uran Satybaldiev – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 9 (6 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Martin Buday’s vast UFC experience gives him a critical advantage over Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida as they head into their heavyweight clash in Abu Dhabi. Buday has already tested himself against some of the division’s most durable and skilled competitors, collecting victories with a blend of methodical striking, clinch pressure, and top-tier fight IQ. That maturity under the brightest lights is something Buchecha, a submission legend but MMA novice, cannot replicate yet.

Another key is Buday’s remarkable takedown defense, he boasts a perfect 100% takedown defense throughout his UFC tenure, consistently thwarting opponents who specialize in grappling. While Buchecha’s jiu-jitsu is world-class, he’s yet to prove he can adapt that style for MMA takedowns against cage-seasoned heavyweights, especially when his ability to initiate shots under fire is unexplored territory in the UFC.

On the feet, Buday employs sharp, efficient boxing and a 54% significant striking accuracy, punishing opponents for closing distance and forcing hesitant strikers to second-guess entry attempts. Buchecha, by contrast, enters this fight with no proven striking credentials, making him a major target for Buday’s straight punches and clinch offense, especially in the opening rounds.

If Buchecha cannot get this fight to the canvas, expect Buday’s composure, physicality, and experience edge to break down the jiu-jitsu ace and secure a statement UFC victory.

Why Marcus Buchecha will win

• Last Fight: (W) Amir Aliakbari – SUB R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 5 (1 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida enters this matchup with a grappling pedigree unparalleled in MMA history. His 17 BJJ world championships and multiple ADCC titles reflect an ability to impose his will on even the most experienced opponents, and if he secures a takedown against Martin Buday, the fight will almost certainly become a one-sided affair on the mat. No heavyweight can match Buchecha’s submission arsenal; his back takes, choke variations, and relentless ground pressure are second to none.

Buchecha’s transition to MMA has been marked by explosive first-round finishes, leveraging his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu mastery into quick submissions against a host of dangerous heavyweights. Against Buday, a fighter who prefers clinch battles and methodical striking—Buchecha’s superior athleticism and scramble ability present a nightmare stylistic matchup. Even though Buday boasts impressive takedown defense, he has never faced a grappler with the speed, creativity, and chaining of attacks that Buchecha brings.

On the feet, Buchecha’s relentless forward pressure and willingness to close distance without fear of counters will stress Buday’s striking and cardio, forcing mistakes and desperate defenses. The moment Buday overcommits or gets trapped along the cage, Buchecha’s world-class jiu-jitsu will take over and decide the outcome. This weekend in Abu Dhabi, expect Buchecha’s legendary grappling acumen to make the difference and set the stage for a statement UFC debut.

Final Martin Buday-Marcus Buchecha prediction & pick

Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida enters as the favorite in this highly anticipated heavyweight clash, with oddsmakers and analysts clearly valuing his world-class submission game and undefeated record in MMA competition outside the UFC. His unparalleled grappling résumé, highlighted by multiple BJJ world titles, gives him the edge if he can secure an early takedown. Buchecha’s ability to dominate on the ground and finish fights quickly remains his clearest path to victory.

Martin Buday’s strengths lie with his well-rounded striking, veteran composure, and exceptional takedown defense, which has thus far remained perfect in his UFC tenure. If Buday can weather Buchecha’s early grappling storm and keep the fight standing, he has a real chance to frustrate the newcomer with volume striking and cage control.

This matchup boils down to whether Buchecha can implement his grappling before Buday’s experience and striking begin to take over. The edge goes to Buchecha, likely via early submission, but Buday’s toughness ensures it won’t come easy.

Final Martin Buday-Marcus Buchecha Prediction & Pick: Marcus Buchecha (-310), Under 1.5 Rounds (+100)