Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Kiefer Crosbie prediction, odds, pick for UFC Shanghai

The UFC Shanghai: Walker vs. Zhang Main Card is finally here as we’re set with a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. China’s Taiyilake Neuraji makes his UFC debut against Ireland’s own Kiefer Crosbie in an exciting matchup to open the card. Check the UFC odds for our Neuraji-Crosbie prediction and pick.

Taiyilake Neuraji (11-1) will make his UFC debut on Saturday as the No. 4-ranked Welterweight in all of the Asia Pacific region. He comes into this bout riding a five-fight winning streak that includes five finishes, looking to finally cash-in on his UFC opportunity in front of a home crowd. Neuraji stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.

Kiefer Crosbie (10-5) is still searching for his first UFC win with an 0-2 record since 2023. He fought to a 4-3 record in three years under Bellator and has even taken part in exhibition boxing matches. He looks for the elusive first UFC win as a sizable betting underdog here. Crosbie stands 5-foot-11 with a 70-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Shanghai Odds: Taiyilake Nueraji-Kiefer Crosbie Odds

Taiyilake Nueraji: -455

Kiefer Crosbie: +350

Over 1.5 rounds: +150

Under 1.5 rounds: -195

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Why Taiyilake Nueraji Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Kirill Karpekin – TKO (hooks, R1)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Taiyilake will make his UFC debut on Saturday while riding an extremely hot streak of wins. He’s been on the UFC’s radar for some time following his appearance on “Road to UFC,” but his added experience on the regional level has only added to his skill set ahead of this debut. He’s had three fights cancelled, two due to his own injuries, in the lead-up to this fight, so it’ll be interesting to see if he shows up ready come Saturday.

Despite his issues in arriving to this point, Neuraji is a ready prospect will all the tools necessary to be successful in the UFC. At 6-foot-2, he’s much longer than his height indicates thanks to his extremely long legs and arms. He uses his limbs to lung forward at opponents and quick cut the distance between them in the striking. Against a shorter opponent like Crosbie, Neuraji should have all the opportunities to showcase his striking capabilities.

In addition to being a hard hitter, Neuraji is also very unorthodox and puts his own defense at risk when lunging at his opponents. His chin has only failed him once in the past, but he’s managed to notch a finish in each of his 11 career wins. Watch for Neuraji to put together another exciting performance in this one.

Why Kiefer Crosbie Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Sam Patterson – SUB (arm triangle, R1)
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Kiefer Crosbie makes another appearance following a tough submission loss where he got tangled against a much longer opponent in Sam Patterson. That’s now his second-straight loss by submission in as many UFC fights, so he’ll need to make some stern improvements in his grappling defense. His opponent here, however, will be welcoming a brawl on the feet, giving Crosbie a much better chance to shine where he’s more comfortable.

In addition to his work on the feet, Crosbie participates in competitive boxing on the side and has been working on that aspect of his MMA game for quite some time. He’ll need every bit of skill as he’ll try to enter range against a longer fighter and hopefully work from inside the pocket. From there, Crosbie has a much better chance at countering and catching Neuraji with something on the inside.

Ultmately, Crosbie will be at a physical disadvantage during this fight. However, he’s already past the jitters of a UFC debut, which his opponent will be dealing with throughout this fight. If Crosbie can keep his composure, close the distance, and counter with his boxing, he could stand a chance at the big upset.

Final Taiyilake Nueraji-Kiefer Crosbie Prediction & Pick

This will be a great fight to open the main card as the Chinese crowd awaits the debut of one of their own in Taiyilake Neuraji. His length in the striking and ability to knock opponents out is what makes him the sizable betting favorite here, but we can’t overlook the experience and improved boxing from Kiefer Crosbie.

While Crosbie has been improving, he still boasts five losses on his record against lesser competition. Taiyilake Neuraji has been much more consistent in his results as well as remaining consistent when it comes to finishing the fight.

For our final prediction here, we have to roll with Taiyilake Neuraji to win the bout with another knockout. I expect this one to come late in the first round as Neuraji eventually figures out the timing and lunges forward to end the fight.

Final Taiyilake Nueraji-Kiefer Crosbie Prediction & Pick: Taiyilake Neuraji (-455); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-195)