When the Sparks opened the holiday weekend with a loss to the Fever, it certainly felt like their playoff hopes were effectively over. Not only were they in ninth place in the standings, but they were two wins behind the Valkyries, four wins behind the Storm and Fever and were staring at a daunting schedule to wrap the year.
However, a back-to-back sweep over the Mystics and Seattle have the Sparks still clinging to postseason hopes. They still sit in ninth place, but suddenly, only 1.5 games separate them and the Storm and Fever heading into the final 10 days of the season.
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It’s still an uphill climb, but one that doesn’t feel as steep as it did just days ago. So, let’s take a look at what the realistic odds are for the Sparks to break their five-year playoff drought.
Remaining schedules
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index still gives the Sparks just a 16% chance of making the playoffs while the Storm (94.9%), Fever (94.8%) and Valkyries (94.3%) are virtual locks.
Much of that comes down to the schedules. According to Tankathon, the Sparks have the fifth-toughest remaining strength of schedule. Seattle and Golden State sit above them in third and second, respectively, while Indiana is in ninth.
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LA does have a game against the league-worst Wings on the schedule, but also have to play the No. 2 seed Aces, the No. 3 seed Dream (twice) and the No. 4 seed Mercury. Both of the games against Atlanta and the contest against Phoenix are on the road, too.
Golden State, meanwhile, is in the midst of a five-game homestand, though they do have games against New York, Minnesota (twice) and Seattle. Seattle, meanwhile, has a bizarre schedule in which they have just two games remaining this season: Friday against New York and Tuesday, Sep. 9, against Golden State.
Indiana is in the best position from a schedule standpoint. After finishing up a West Coast road trip in Phoenix on Tuesday, they return home to play the Sky, a team they have dominated this season, and then the Mystics, who have lost seven straight. Their final game of the season will come against the Lynx, who could potentially begin resting players with the No. 1 seed locked up.
They also could be welcoming back Caitlin Clark in the next week as well as she’s been out with injury for the entire second-half of the season so far.
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So, as you can see, the Sparks are already facing a very difficult task with their schedule even if all things were equal. To catch up to the rest of those teams with their schedule is going to be particularly tough.
Tiebreakers
The good news for the Sparks is they hold a couple of important tiebreakers. While they lost to the Valkyries in three of their four meetings, they do own tiebreakers over the Fever and Storm, meaning if they finish the regular season with the same record, the Sparks will move above them.
Considering that, as of time of publish, the Fever and Storm are the two teams closest to the Sparks in the standings, having those tiebreakers could be vital.
Ultimately, it’s still hard to see the Sparks making the playoffs. While they do still have a game they should win against Dallas, that’s sandwiched in the middle of back-to-back games in Atlanta and games against Phoenix and Las Vegas.
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All four of those teams are fighting for the No. 2 seed and are separated, at time of publish, by just a half-game in the standings. They, too, will be looking to finish the year strong and present daunting challenges.
With all that being said, the Sparks have had the odds stacked up against them for much of the second half of the season and keep finding ways to respond. But did they dig a hole too large to climb out of this time?
You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.
