No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee prediction: Odds, expert picks, team overviews, key players, and stats

Its an SEC showdown in Knoxville Saturday afternoon when No. 6 Georgia (2-0) takes to the gridiron against No. 15 Tennessee (2-0).

Game Details and How to watch Georgia at Tennessee

Date: Saturday, September 13th, 2025

Game Odds for Georgia at Tennessee

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Tennessee Volunteers (+160), Georgia Bulldogs (-192)
Spread: Georgia -4.0 (-110)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Lets dive into each team and find a few bets for this blockbuster.

Georgia Bulldogs

Head Coach: Kirby Smart
2025 Record: 2-0
Offense Ranking: 11th
Defense Ranking: 6th
Strength of Schedule: 11th

The Georgia Bulldogs had a soft opening to the 2025 season, easily vanquishing lower-tiered non-conference opponents Austin Peay and Marshall. Offensively, they rank Top 20 in both success rate (54.6%, 19th) and red zone TD rate (88.9%, 8th) but are among the worst nationally in marginal explosiveness (118th) and yards per successful play (124th), contributing to a Bottom 30 finish in yards per play (67th) and an underwhelming 3.04 points per drive (40th). Defensively, Georgia ranks 3rd nationally in down-set conversion rate (42.9%) and a sterling 9th in EPA/play allowed. However, they have only logged one takeaway and rank 132nd in expected turnovers with a -15.3 PPG scoring margin below expectations (123rd) according to SP+.

The Georgia Bulldogs Offense

The Georgia Bulldogs offense pairs elite efficiency with a strong ground game, ranking 16th nationally in success rate (56.8%) and 25th in rushing success (53.6%). Despite those strengths, the offense struggles with explosiveness, finishing just 120th in yards per successful dropback (12.0) and 92nd in marginal explosiveness. The Bulldogs’ offensive line excels at limiting mistakes, allowing the 3rd-fewest penalties and ranking top 25 in total blown block rate (5.1%) and pressures allowed (1.4%). Georgia QB Gunner Stockton ranks 19th nationally in Total QBR at 81.9 and doesn’t throw interceptions, but the short passing game lacks vertical threat with lackluster marks in air yards per target (6.9 = 102nd)) and completions of 20+ yards (13.0% = 92nd).

Georgia Bulldog to Watch on Offense: WR Zachariah Branch

The Georgia wide receiver has been an explosive weapon in limited usage, averaging an impressive 18.7 yards per reception and 11.2 yards per target on just 10 targets. Despite a modest 60% catch rate, the USC transfer has moved the chains on 83.3% of his catches without registering a single drop. His route distribution skews heavily short (67%) with a respectable 22% deep rate, as Branch averages just 3.0 air yards per target designed to let the dynamic playmaker create with the ball in his hands.

The Georgia Bulldogs Defense

The Georgia Bulldogs defense excels at limiting explosive plays and dominating in efficiency metrics but struggles in a few key areas. Georgia ranks Top 10 nationally in down-set conversion rate allowed (42.9%, 3rd), EPA/play allowed (9th), and points per drive allowed (0.52, 9th), while holding opponents to just 2.2 yards per carry (2nd) and a 26.3% rushing success rate (9th). However, the unit has forced just one turnover (132nd in expected turnover %) and is allowing a 4.9% explosive play rate (61st) against much inferior competition.

Georgia Bulldog to Watch on Defense: S KJ Bolden

The sophomore is living up to his highly touted prop billing in his second season at UGA, logging 5 total tackles in his season debut against Marshall, including 3 solo stops. He has produced a solid 71.4% tackle rate to go with 1.0 havoc play with one pass breakup, showing promising ball skills in coverage. Bolden has logged 12 primary coverage snaps with just one target thrown his way (8.3% target rate) that resulted in a forced incompletion from KJ. He looks experienced beyond his years and will be a fixture in the Georgia secondary for the foreseeable future.

Tennessee Volunteers

Head Coach: Josh Heupel
2025 Record: 2-0
Offense Ranking: 18th
Defense Ranking: 3rd
Strength of Schedule: 21st

Tennessee had no trouble racking up 45 points and a gaudy 493 total yards against Syracuse in their Week 1 opening victory. Appalachian State/UCLA transfer Joey Aguilar proved more than competent by throwing for 247 yards and three touchdowns while chipping in with 34 yards on the ground, while the Vols accrued 246 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry. Defensive cracks showed up though, with Cuse scoring 24 points and gaining a respectable 377 total yards on the day thanks to their vertical passing game under the guidance of ND transfer Steven Angeli.

The Tennessee Volunteers Offense

Tennessee’s offense is built on high-tempo efficiency, ranking 2nd nationally in plays per game (84.0) and 8th in overall success rate (58.3%). They produce strong returns on early downs with a 70.2 team QBR (11th) and rank Top 15 in both EPA per dropback (12th) and EPA/play (15th). The unit creates steady chunk gains, averaging 9.0 yards per dropback (14th) and 15.1 yards per successful dropback (61st), while also limiting turnovers (0 INTs). However, their adjusted completion rate (57.5%, 103rd) suggests some inefficiency on non-scripted throws despite the offensive firepower.

Tennessee Volunteer to Watch on Offense: QB Joey Aguilar

Joey Aguilar has opened the season with solid efficiency as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, completing 66.1% of his passes for 535 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He ranks well in yards per completion (13.7) and success rate (53.8%) while avoiding negative plays entirely, posting a 0.0% sack and pressure rate across 59 attempts. Aguilar’s 9.3 yards per dropback, and 10.8 adjusted net yards per attempt highlight his ability to generate consistent, efficient production without sacrificing ball security. His 68.8 Total QBR is reflective of a poised passer who maximizes opportunities while minimizing risk.

The Tennessee Volunteers Defense

Tennessee’s defense presents a classic high-risk, high-reward profile, ranking Top 20 in both 3-and-out rate (20th) and down-set conversion rate allowed (20th), yet struggling mightily in other core metrics. The Volunteers allow 71.5 plays per game (111th) and 14.0 drives per game (131st) due to their fast-paced play style. While the rush defense limits explosiveness well (4.8 yards per successful rush = 1st in FBS), they struggled with EPA/play allowed (+0.11, 98th) and red zone TD rate (85.7%, 123rd). Despite these flaws, they still hold opponents to a solid 22.3 yards per drive (34th) and generate pressure on over 7% of dropbacks, showcasing a defense capable of timely stops but prone to lapses.

Tennessee Volunteer to Watch on Defense: Edge Joshua Josephs

The Tennessee edge rusher has made an early impact with 7 total tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble through two games. He owns a perfect 100.0% tackle efficiency rate and has generated 3 havoc plays (2 TFLs, 1 FF) while converting both of his pressures into sacks. On just 15 pass-rush snaps, Josephs boasts a 13.3% pressure rate and averages 2.57 seconds to his first pressure, showing quickness off the edge. His ability to finish plays with violence and efficiency is critical for a Vols defense that thrives on disruption.

Georgia at Tennessee team stats, betting trends

Georgia is on a 3-game winning streak at Tennessee
Georgia is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games as the favorite
The Over is 7-3 in Tennessee’s last 10 games

Rotoworld Bet Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Gunner Stockton OVER 17.5 yards rushing

Georgia QB Gunner Stockton is an in-state high school legend at Rabun County High School where he set all-time state records in career passing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns with 77. In fact, Stockton produced a whopping 4,372 rushing yards during his prep career and rushed 10 times for 73 yards in Week 1 against Marshall. Last week against Austin Peay, OC Mike Bobo only called one designed run play against the punchless FCS opponent, with Stockton gaining 13 yards on 5 carries (4 scrambles). Expect to see UGA run Stockton more against a Tennessee defense that lost their Top 2 players from their defensive line and ranks 111th in EPA/rush allowed. I’m taking Gunner Stockton to go Over 17.5 Rushing Yards against the Vols.

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Game Total OVER 48.5 (-120)

I like the Game Over 48.5 up to 49.5 as Georgia hasn’t been tested yet, while Tennessee’s defense is overrated and has taken a significant step back from last year, plus they are down two cornerbacks! Tennessee’s offense ranks 11th in plays per second, and Georgia hasn’t had to play fast yet, ranking 82nd, so I think the Over shows value in a game where the Vols can break their 8-game losing streak against Georgia.

***

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Georgia and Tennessee:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Tennessee Volunteers at +3.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 50.5.

Enjoy Week 3 in college football and lets cash a few tickets!

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