Sunday’s Week 2 slate wraps up with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Minnesota Vikings on “Sunday Night Football.”
The Falcons are coming off a three-point loss to division rival Tampa Bay, while the Vikings pulled off a comeback win over the Bears behind J.J. McCarthy.
Minnesota enters Sunday night’s game as a 3.5-point favorite, with the game points total at 44.5.
From odds and trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here’s everything you need to help make your decisions at the betting window.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Vikings -3.5 (+105)
Maldonado: Atlanta has got the sizzle with Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Drake London, but the shine wears off quickly when they face upper-echelon defenses. The Falcons were dead last in rushing EPA last week, and Robinson got stuffed (12 carries for 24 yards), getting hit at or behind the line on 10 of his carries. That line gave Penix no room, so they lived in the quick passing game, with London’s targets averaging only 6.6 air yards.
Now the offense faces a Minnesota front with Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen that’s way tougher than what they saw vs. Tampa. Vikings DC Brian Flores blitzed Bears QB Caleb Williams at a 43% rate in the second half last week, and he’ll bring that same heat here. J.J. McCarthy still has training wheels, but O’Connell’s offense is built for balance with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones Sr. Bottom line, the purple are set for Sunday night.
Notable player props, bets
J.J. McCarthy to record 20+ rushing yards (Even)
Bowen: McCarthy rushed for 25 yards on two attempts in the Monday night win over Chicago, scoring on a 14-yard designed carry. He has the mobility to create on second-reaction scramble attempts, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings set him up again as a runner in the red zone. I like the over on McCarthy versus a Falcons defense that allowed 39 yards rushing to Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield in Week 1.
Justin Jefferson longest reception OVER 25.5 yards (-105)
Moody: Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell didn’t air it out much in the opener against the Bears — likely to ease McCarthy into the offense — but we saw flashes in the fourth quarter of what the young QB can do. Jefferson can win almost any one-on-one matchup, and he should see plenty of opportunities against a Falcons secondary that was torched by Emeka Egbuka in Week 1.
Bijan Robinson to record 30+ receiving yards (+110)
Maldonado: With the run game bottled up in Week 1, Atlanta leaned on the quick passing game. Bijan became the checkdown and mismatch weapon, catching six passes for 100 yards, showing he doesn’t need volume to pop. Minnesota allowed RBs four catches on six targets against the Bears, and DC Brian Flores cranked up blitzes in the second half last week. That sets up perfectly for Bijan as the safety valve. With rushing lanes likely shut again, Robinson’s role tilts toward receiving work. Add in his explosive ability, and he could clear 30 yards on a single play.
Jalen Nailor longest reception OVER 16.5 receiving yards (Even)
Loza: A high school state champion sprinter with the nickname “Speedy,” Nailor played ahead of Adam Thielen in Week 1. The 24-year-old caught only one ball, but he recorded a snap share of 87.5% and was tied for second in team looks (3). More importantly, his lone reception went for 28 yards, the longest among the Vikings’ pass catchers. It’s possible Thielen gets more work in Week 2, but facing a Falcons defense that allowed three passes over 17 yards to the Buccaneers (two to Egbuka and one to Sterling Shepard), Nailor should make good on the above prop.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Atlanta dropped from +200 to +350 to win the NFC South after its Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers moved from -110 to -200.
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The Falcons are 1-5 against the spread as underdogs since hiring Raheem Morris last season. Morris is 22-30 ATS as an underdog, though he is 18-14 ATS as a road underdog.
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Minnesota games are 11-1 to the over when the Vikings are coming off fewer than six days rest since 2020.
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The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in September since 2024 and 3-0 ATS in their past three as a favorite.
