There was a playoff atmosphere at Fenway Park this weekend as the Boston Red Sox hosted the rival New York Yankees in a three-game series with significant standings implications.
But the chances of that atmosphere being recreated in October have decreased significantly.
After dropping two of three to their American League East nemesis, the Red Sox (82-68) are now 1.5 games behind the Yankees (83-66), who currently own the top AL Wild Card spot and thus home-field advantage in a playoff series with the No. 2 Wild Card team — which is currently the Red Sox.
So, if the season ended Monday, the Red Sox would have to travel to Yankee Stadium for a three-game Wild Card series, while the No. 3 Wild Card team (the Houston Astros) would face the AL division winner with the worst record (the Seattle Mariners).
Here’s a look at the current Wild Card standings:
And here’s a more in-depth look at what’s at stake for the Red Sox entering their final 12 games:
AL East crown (essentially) out of reach
The Toronto Blue Jays have the AL East virtually locked up with a 5.5-game lead over Boston and a four-game lead over New York. Toronto has a 95 percent chance of winning the division, per Baseball Reference, while the Red Sox’ chances of winning the East are 1 percent.
The Red Sox do play a three-game series against Toronto from Sept. 23-25, but there’s a very good chance the Blue Jays have locked up their first division pennant since 2015 by then.
Catching Yankees will be a tall task
A 1.5-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but the schedule doesn’t do the Red Sox any favors. According to Tankathon, Boston has the seventh-most difficult schedule in MLB down the stretch, while New York has the easiest. Here are each team’s final series:
- Red Sox: vs. Athletics, at Tampa Bay Rays, at Blue Jays, vs. Detroit Tigers
- Yankees: at Minnesota Twins, at Baltimore Orioles, vs. Chicago White Sox, at Orioles
Even if the Red Sox take care of business against the A’s and Rays (who both have losing records), they finish with back-to-back series against the AL’s two best teams in the Blue Jays and Tigers.
The Yankees, meanwhile, will face three of the AL’s four worst teams in the 69-win Twins, the 65-win Orioles (twice) and 57-win White Sox.
So, unless New York stumbles against the AL’s cellar dwellers, Aaron Boone’s club should have the inside track on the No. 1 Wild Card spot.
Keep an eye on the AL West
While the Astros are in the third Wild Card spot, they’re just one game behind the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners, who have the same record as Boston entering Monday.
If Houston overtakes Seattle, the Mariners would be back in the Wild Card mix, and both teams don’t have particularly challenging schedules down the stretch. (The Astros rank 15th in strength of schedule, while the Mariners have the fifth-easiest schedule based on opponent win percentage.)
If Boston drops to the third Wild Card spot, it would have to travel to either Houston or Seattle for that series.
One thing we do know? The Wild Card round is set for Sep. 30 through Oct. 2. It’s up to the Red Sox to determine where they play it.
