Entering 2025, DJ Herz was expected to play a big part in the Washington Nationals’ rotation. Across 88 2/3 innings in 2024, he posted a 4.16 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings, all with great underlying numbers. His 2025 season was cut short, however, before it could begin, as after a disastrous Spring Training where his velocity plummeted and control was abysmal, he got Tommy John Surgery for a UCL Sprain in April.
While Tommy John Surgery is no longer the career-threatening procedure it once was, with it becoming almost expected to happen to most hard-throwing pitchers in today’s game, the road to recovery is still long and winding. Typically, it can take between 9 and 18 months for a pitcher to make a full recovery, accounting for all factors such as recovery throwing program, physical therapy, and the ability of each player to adjust to the change.
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Take, for example, Josiah Gray, who had his 2024 season ended in April due to Tommy John Surgery. Gray was knocked out for the entire 2024 campaign, and while many people expected to see him make his return at the end of the 2025 season, the coaching staff and front office decided it was best to hold off and let him continue his recovery in Palm Beach. Gray now appears to be fully healthy entering 2026 and will be a part of the Nationals’ starting rotation, barring any unexpected trades or free agent signings this offseason. In Herz’s case, the surgery was always going to knock him out of the 2025 season completely, but a return at some point in 2026 was not off the table.
So, can Nats fans expect to see DJ Herz back on the big league mound in 2026? While it’s a difficult question to answer without knowing where in his recovery Herz is, if there has not been any setbacks, then my expectation would be yes, we will see DJ Herz pitch in the big leagues in 2026. He will first need to begin his recovery process in the minor leagues, working his way from the bottom up. Herz will also need to adjust to a starter’s workload again, as he will likely only go 3 innings at a time as he is built up. When Herz makes his big league return, it possibly could be in a bullpen role, allowing Herz more time to recover while still building himself back up.
Overall, the main focus in 2026 for DJ Herz won’t be on recovering as quickly as possible to get back to the bigs, but rather focusing on getting himself 100% healthy and ready for 2027. Expectations of winning are once again low for this Nats club this season, and the last thing they need is for Herz to have a setback in his recovery in an attempt to win marginally more games than they would without him. A fully healthy DJ Herz is a problem for big league hitters, and if the Nationals are serious about contending in the near future, he will be a key part of that vision.
