With the NBA’s regular season just past its halfway point, we’ve already seen plenty of stellar action. The Atlanta Hawks kicked off trade season by sending Trae Young to the Washington Wizards, ending his seven-plus-season tenure. It seems Ja Morant and Anthony Davis could be the next stars on the move.
We’ve also seen some surprises in the standings, with the young Detroit Pistons leading the East and the Boston Celtics refusing to fall without Jayson Tatum. And in the West, the San Antonio Spurs have given the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder a new rivalry.
It’s the perfect time to hand out midterm grades to all 30 teams.
My grades, based on performance to date, are strongly influenced by a team’s expectations entering the season. For context, I’ve included preseason win projections for each team alongside the current projection provided by ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which incorporates win-loss record and accounts for injuries.
Beyond wins and losses, I’m also considering how well teams are executing their goals, including developing young talent and securing lottery positioning. Generally speaking, meeting expectations thus far results in a “B” or “C” grade, meaning overperformance is required to get an A.
I’ve handed out four of those, plus two more “A-minus” grades, starting with two surprising teams battling for top seeds in the Eastern Conference. Check out where all 30 teams landed on my midseason grades. (Teams are in alphabetical order within each grade.)
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Preseason projection: 40.5 wins
Current projection: 50.7 wins
Granted, the Celtics have been as fortunate as a team whose star player (Jayson Tatum) is rehabbing a right Achilles injury can be in terms of health. Their top three remaining players (Jaylen Brown, Payton Pritchard and Derrick White) have missed a combined five games. However, even knowing that, we wouldn’t likely have picked Boston to have the NBA’s third-best point differential at midseason.
Brown has leveled up as a scorer (averaging a career-best 29.7 PPG); Neemias Queta has filled the void left at center with Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Kristaps Porzingis all departed; and Jordan Walsh has been a revelation in Tatum’s spot in the starting five. Joe Mazzulla deserves credit for pulling everything together and should be a strong candidate for Coach of the Year. (Mea culpa for leaving him out of my midseason awards check-in.)
Preseason projection: 45.5 wins
Current projection: 56.1 wins
The Pistons haven’t been as dominant since a 13-game winning streak left them 15-2 to start the season, but they are still comfortably atop the East after being picked to be in the middle of the pack. Detroit has built a top-10 offense after losing Malik Beasley, the team’s second-leading scorer last season, and truly excels with an elite defense (No. 2 in the league) built on size. Cade Cunningham has put himself in the MVP conversation, Jalen Duren should join him in the All-Star Game and J.B. Bickerstaff is the Coach of the Year favorite.
1:13
LA Clippers vs. Detroit Pistons: Game Highlights
LA Clippers vs. Detroit Pistons: Game Highlights
Preseason projection: 31.5 wins
Current projection: 46.4 wins
Thus far, team owner Mat Ishbia was right and the experts (myself included) were wrong about the Suns’ offseason makeover, which saw them say farewell to marquee additions Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant. In their place, Phoenix has built a hard-playing squad in the image of newcomer Dillon Brooks that excels at forcing turnovers and has barely dropped off offensively from last year’s star-studded team, going from 13th in offensive rating to 15th. Collin Gillespie‘s emergence as a capable starting point guard has been one of the season’s best stories — earning him the nickname “Villain Jr.” from Brooks — and new coach Jordan Ott looks like he’ll put an end to the revolving door on the Suns’ sideline.
Preseason projection: 44.5 wins
Current projection: 52.2 wins
Here come the Spurs, whose likely return to the playoffs after a seven-year drought looks like the dawn of a new age of San Antonio success. The Spurs have capably navigated extended absences for De’Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama and No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, sitting tied for second in the West. Perhaps more encouraging is the way the head-to-head wins over Oklahoma City suggest San Antonio can legitimately contend for a championship right now, despite two starters (Wembanyama and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle) being 22 or younger, plus the 19-year-old Harper in a key bench role.
Preseason projection: 53.5 wins
Current projection: 53.1 wins
The Nuggets have had their preferred starting lineup (Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic) available for just 10 games, going 8-2 in them. Yet, Denver still finds itself battling for second in the West. The timing of Jokic’s left knee contusion with multiple other starters battling injuries seemed calamitous for Denver. Instead, the Nuggets’ young talent has stepped up to keep them rolling despite the absence of the three-time MVP. When Denver is at full strength, this looks like the NBA’s second-best team.
Preseason projection: 62.5 wins
Current projection: 64.9 wins
The Thunder boasted the highest preseason line for any team since the 2017-18 Warriors and spent November and December on pace to smash it. A 24-1 start will do that. And although the Spurs’ three head-to-head wins — plus recent back-to-back losses to Phoenix and Charlotte — have poked some holes in Oklahoma City’s seeming invincibility, the Thunder are still in the midst of a historic season. They set an NBA record with a plus-12.9 point differential last season and are currently ahead of that pace at plus-13.0 despite having their preferred starters together for just five games.
Preseason projection: 52.5 wins
Current projection: 52.3 wins
Why a B-plus for the Rockets, who are on track to finish almost exactly at their preseason line? First, I thought that expectations were inflated for Houston in the wake of Fred VanVleet‘s September ACL tear, which left the Rockets without any proven point guard options. As Houston hoped, recent lottery picks Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard have solidified the position, with Sheppard making a leap in his sophomore campaign. And Kevin Durant has been the difference-maker the Rockets hoped, leaving Houston top-five in offensive rating despite a recent slump.
Second, the Rockets have been one of the league’s unluckiest teams thus far. Houston’s record (25-15) is fifth in the West by virtue of a 9-12 record in games that qualify by the NBA’s definition of clutch time (within five points in the last five minutes of regulation). The Rockets are 24th in clutch defensive rating, which seems unlikely to persist given their talent at that end.
Preseason projection: 42.5 wins
Current projection: 45.5 wins
Despite having Joel Embiid and Paul George together for just 15 games, the Sixers are battling for a top-four spot in the East. That’s reflective of Philadelphia’s growth around the backcourt of Tyrese Maxey, who’s playing at an All-NBA level, and exciting rookie VJ Edgecombe. Dominick Barlow has also emerged as a starting power forward for the Sixers while playing on a two-way contract.
1:18
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Game Highlights
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Game Highlights
Preseason projection: 33.5 wins
Current projection: 39.0 wins
Given their long injury list, the Blazers have perhaps overachieved more than their preseason line would indicate. Portland has yet to get guard Scoot Henderson on the court, played nearly two months without Jrue Holiday and also saw reserve guards Matisse Thybulle and Blake Wesley simultaneously sidelined. Deni Avdija has filled the void by emerging as the Blazers’ primary ball handler and performing at an All-Star level, averaging 26.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 6.9 APG.
Oh, and Portland has done it all after its head coach, Chauncey Billups, was arrested as part of an FBI investigation into gambling, with Tiago Splitter seamlessly sliding into the role of acting head coach. The only quibble is that the Blazers’ minus-1.9 point differential isn’t quite as strong as their record.
1:14
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers: Game Highlights
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers: Game Highlights
Preseason projection: 38.5 wins
Current projection: 44.1 wins
I was higher on the Raptors than their line, but even a rosy outlook didn’t include Toronto in a top-four spot in the East at midseason. The Raptors’ four perimeter starters have fit together better than expected, paced by Scottie Barnes playing at an All-NBA level. Plus, they’ve shrugged off an injury to center Jakob Poeltl (who hasn’t played since Dec. 21) with rookie Collin Murray-Boyles stepping into the starting five. Toronto might come back to its plus-1.3 differential, having gone 15-7 in clutch games, yet should still blow expectations away.
Preseason projection: 19.5 wins
Current projection: 25.8 wins
Evaluating rebuilding teams is challenging because their goals aren’t based on wins and losses. The Nets, who don’t control their first-round pick after this season, won’t want to win too many games. So far, they seem to be threading the needle well. Brooklyn is still in the mix for a bottom-four record but has been more competitive than the league’s other rebuilding teams with a minus-4.8 point differential. That’s largely thanks to Michael Porter Jr., who has elevated his trade value by playing like an All-Star for the Nets. Dealing Porter before the deadline could help Brooklyn sink in the standings while sending him to a team with greater aspirations.
Preseason projection: 26.5 wins
Current projection: 32.1 wins
The Hornets have looming questions about LaMelo Ball‘s future with the team after another uneven start, as well as Brandon Miller‘s potential with the former No. 2 pick shooting below 42% from the field for a third consecutive season. Still, those issues have been overshadowed by the production Charlotte has gotten from a franchise-altering draft class. No. 4 pick Kon Knueppel looks like a future star with his historic 3-point shooting (43.4%), and second-round picks Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner have both been capable as starters. For a Hornets team in need of hope, the rookies have provided just that.
Preseason projection: 38.5 wins
Current projection: 45.4 wins
Evaluating the Heat requires looking past their 22-20 record, which puts them eighth in the East. Miami’s plus-1.6 differential, along with the league’s easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI, inspires confidence that the Heat have a good shot at avoiding the play-in tournament. For all the focus on Miami’s unorthodox new offense, which eschews pick-and-rolls in favor of driving and dishing, the Heat have stayed afloat primarily because of a top-five defense. If they can pair that with more offensive production and a healthy Tyler Herro after he missed 30 games, Miami will finish the season strong and improve this grade.
1:08
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat: Game Highlights
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat: Game Highlights
Preseason projection: 49.5 wins
Current projection: 50.3 wins
A 51-win pace obscures concerns for the Timberwolves, who have played the second-easiest schedule thus far among West teams, according to BPI. Minnesota has also generally been healthy, with its preferred starters together for 31 of 43 games. That’s important because 2024 first-round picks Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. have been unable to fill the void left by Nickeil Alexander-Walker‘s departure in free agency, with Bones Hyland emerging as Alexander-Walker’s primary replacement. Keep an eye on how injuries could expose the Timberwolves’ shaky depth.
Preseason projection: 53.5 wins
Current projection: 49.1 wins
The Knicks’ grade would have been higher on New Year’s Eve, when they’d pulled within a game of Detroit in the East standings in the wake of an 11-2 stretch that included winning the NBA Cup. Losing a second-half lead at San Antonio in a rematch of the Cup final began a four-game slide for New York, the team’s longest since Feb. 2024. The Knicks now find themselves clear underdogs to finish atop the East, according to simulations using BPI. Perhaps more troubling, New York’s plus-3.5 differential ranks just third in the conference. However, there’s plenty of time for the Knicks to recapture their NBA Cup form in the second half.
Preseason projection: 20.5 wins
Current projection: 19.1 wins
The Wizards’ 7-5 record in a 12-game stretch to end December and begin January sparked concern that they might win too many games to keep their first-round pick, which they owe to the Knicks if it lands outside the top eight. That was probably overstated. Washington’s 1-15 start and combination of blowout losses and close wins mean the team’s minus-11.2 point differential is still the worst in the NBA. The Wizards appear to be unwilling to take any chances, keeping newly acquired guard Trae Young out of the lineup despite the fact that he was nearing a return before the trade.
Preseason projection: 33.5 wins
Current projection: 33.9 wins
A 5-0 Chicago start was predictably short-lived, and the Bulls are no longer on pace to substantially exceed their modest preseason line. Although Chicago remains near .500, the team’s minus-3.4 differential ranks a distant 12th in the East. There are positives here, including the continued success of Josh Giddey as a primary ball handler and the development of second-year forward Matas Buzelis, but there is no sense that the Bulls are building toward anything much bigger than an annual spot in the play-in tournament.
Preseason projection: 46.5 wins
Current projection: 46.3 wins
After spending much of December below .500, the Warriors are suddenly on track to hit their over/under total thanks to a 10-4 record in the last month.
That stretch has coincided with the return to the lineup of veteran center Al Horford, who struggled with his shooting early on before missing 11 games due to sciatic nerve irritation. Although keeping the league’s second-oldest roster healthy will always be a concern — and Jimmy Butler III and Stephen Curry have played as well as could reasonably be expected — Golden State can hope help is coming via trade sending out Jonathan Kuminga, who hasn’t played since Dec. 18, amidst an inevitable trade request.
Preseason projection: 40.5 wins
Current projection: 39.5 wins
The slow-motion breakup between the Grizzlies and star Ja Morant has overshadowed anything else that’s happened on the court this season. There’s reason to believe Memphis is building a core that can succeed without Morant, having gone 11-10 in his absence despite playing most of the season without starting center Zach Edey. The Grizzlies were 7-4 in Edey’s 11 games as he averaged 13.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG on 63% shooting. Fellow 2024 draft pick Cam Spencer has been a revelation at point guard, and rookie Cedric Coward looks like a building block for Memphis on the other side of the Morant saga.
Preseason projection: 51.5 wins
Current projection: 45.8 wins
Health is the optimistic explanation for why the Magic are falling short of high expectations after adding Desmond Bane last summer. In 19 games with both Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, Orlando went 12-7 and outscored opponents by 5.7 PPG, looking very much like a contender. Wagner recently returned from a high ankle sprain that cost him All-Star consideration, while Suggs is dealing with an MCL contusion. The concern is that the Magic didn’t find more success building their offense around Bane and Paolo Banchero, who is averaging 21.1 PPG, down from 25.9 a year ago.
Preseason projection: 19.5 wins
Current projection: 24.5 wins
Behind a breakthrough third season from guard Keyonte George, the Jazz started 10-15 and beat Detroit and San Antonio on consecutive nights in late December. Great news, right? Maybe not if you owe a first-round pick to Oklahoma City if it falls outside the top eight — particularly because the Jazz won’t have to give up anything at all if they keep the pick this year. Despite the new president of basketball operations, Austin Ainge, saying “You won’t see that this year” when asked about veterans sitting out games late in 2024-25, Utah is already regularly resting star Lauri Markkanen, as well as centers Kevin Love and Jusuf Nurkic.
The biggest challenge for the Jazz is finessing their season just right to stay competitive while keeping their pick. They recently overcorrected in a 55-point loss at home to Charlotte before winning their next game at Cleveland.
Preseason projection: 38.5 wins
Current projection: 22.9 wins
No team might fall short of its preseason line more than the Pacers, who were still expected to contend for a play-in spot entering the season after losing Tyrese Haliburton to an Achilles rupture and Myles Turner in free agency. Certainly, that doesn’t reflect well on Indiana’s holdover players, with recent first-round picks Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker struggling to step into larger roles. However, the cascade of early Pacers injuries — with starters Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith missing extended stretches, and key reserve Obi Toppin lost for the season — quickly shifted focus to adding a lottery pick to the mix. Indiana looks headed for one of the NBA’s worst records without getting blown out as frequently as the league’s rebuilding teams.
1:38
Why Stephen A. won’t ignore Rich Paul’s take on Austin Reaves
Stephen A. Smith explains why LeBron James is separating himself from Rich Paul’s take that the Lakers should trade Austin Reaves to the Grizzlies for Jaren Jackson Jr.
Preseason projection: 46.5 wins
Current projection: 44.7 wins
The Lakers’ projection is right in line with what was expected coming into the season. That qualifies as troubling news because it required the Lakers to win their first 13 clutch games. The Lakers’ minus-0.8 point differential ranks eighth in the West, and closer to 11th (Portland) than seventh (Golden State). Led by a resurgent season from Luka Doncic, the Lakers are near the NBA’s top 10 in offensive rating despite rarely having both LeBron James and Austin Reaves healthy to support him. But the Lakers’ 26th-ranked defense looks more like a rebuilding team than a contender.
Preseason projection: 46.5 wins
Current projection: 41.1 wins
The hope in Atlanta is that this grade reflects Young’s poor fit with the current group before being traded to the Wizards. The Hawks went just 2-7 in the nine games Young played with the team and are above-.500 without him. It’s too early to evaluate how Atlanta looks with newcomers CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert in place of Young, but we can say with confidence that Jalen Johnson is ready to be Atlanta’s go-to guy on offense. Johnson has averaged 22.1 PPG, 10.5 RPG and 8.2 APG in games Young hasn’t played.
Preseason projection: 56.5 wins
Current projection: 47.7 wins
It’s hard to believe now that only Oklahoma City had a higher preseason total than the Cavaliers’ 56.5 wins. We knew Cleveland would be without starting point guard Darius Garland to open the season and starting wing Max Strus for an extended period, but Garland’s play has been affected since he returned from toe surgery. The Cavaliers have played just 11 games with their starters besides Strus healthy, going 7-4.
Cleveland should have a better record in the second half, but must battle to get home-court advantage in the first round after finishing atop the East last season.
Preseason projection: 40.5 wins
Current projection: 32.7 wins
Ah, preseason, when one of the concerns was whether Dallas would have enough playing time at center for Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. Lively already underwent season-ending right foot surgery, and Davis will be sidelined at least six weeks after playing just 20 games (during which the Mavericks went 10-10). Add in Jason Kidd beginning the season with Cooper Flagg at point guard in place of the injured Kyrie Irving, and Dallas never stood a chance of reaching the postseason.
Flagg’s growth back at the forward spots has been a bright spot from the Mavericks’ season, and they’ll add a lottery pick before losing control of their first-rounders from 2027 through 2030. Everything else about this campaign will be forgettable, outside of former general manager Nico Harrison’s November firing.
Preseason projection: 47.5 wins
Current projection: 41.0 wins
The Clippers have been one of the league’s hottest teams, bouncing back from the bottom of the West after starting the season 6-21 in the shadow of an NBA investigation of salary-cap circumvention, and they’re back in play-in territory. Nonetheless, they’ve fallen far short of expectations that they’d compete for a top-six spot in the West. Not only are the Clippers not in a position to benefit if they miss the playoffs — the Thunder own their draft pick, the final piece of the Paul George trade — their issues seem largely of their own making.
It would be one thing if the Clippers were struggling because Kawhi Leonard was injured. Instead, both Leonard and James Harden are playing at an All-NBA level, and yet the Clippers don’t have anyone else in the top 150 in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric.
After a strong 2024 offseason in which they replaced George with better values, the Clippers doubled down on veterans and busted. Bradley Beal played just six games before season-ending hip surgery, while Chris Paul has been exiled after clashing with the coaching staff. Meanwhile, Norman Powell has been better than ever in Miami after the Clippers gave him away in a regrettable move. The Clippers have improved enough to avoid the league’s worst grade midseason, but still have far more work to do.
Preseason projection: 30.5 wins
Current projection: 22.3 wins
The Pelicans stand alone among the teams at the bottom of the standings by not benefiting from a 2026 lottery pick. New Orleans sent that pick to Atlanta in the draft-night deal to move up and take center Derik Queen, whose versatile production has been a highlight of this season. Both Queen and fellow lottery pick Jeremiah Fears have been productive for rookie starters, and Zion Williamson has had good moments. However, the Pelicans don’t shoot well enough (29th in made 3s) or protect the rim well enough (29th in opponent 2-point percentage) to be competitive, which cost coach Willie Green his job in November. Things have improved only marginally under James Borrego.
1:30
Pelicans hold on late to knock off Nets
Trey Murphy III leads the way with 34 points as the Pelicans defeat the Nets.
Preseason projection: 34.5 wins
Current projection: 26.0 wins
The Kings’ desperate attempts to remain competitive — adding Zach LaVine as part of last year’s trade that sent De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio and acquiring Dennis Schroder last summer — look foolish as they’ve sunk to the bottom of the standings without injured center Domantas Sabonis. The good news? Sacramento can no longer ignore the need to rebuild its roster, which atrophied after the Kings won 48 games and returned to the playoffs three seasons ago. The bad news is Sacramento won’t likely get lucrative packages in return for its veterans.
Preseason projection: 42.5 wins
Current projection: 35.4 wins
With renewed questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s future in Milwaukee as a backdrop, the Bucks face a battle just to make the play-in, let alone reach the playoffs or win a series for the first time since 2022. To some extent, that’s to be expected with Antetokounmpo missing 14 games, during which Milwaukee has gone 3-11. But the Bucks haven’t been as effective as they hoped with Giannis healthy, getting outscored by 1.1 PPG in those games. Milwaukee’s rotation has been impacted by too many below-par performers and a deadline trade won’t likely do enough to rectify that problem.
