You can feel it coming right? Well… maybe it’s coming. I mean — it’s probably coming, but is it coming for Notre Dame?
College football is trying to figure itself out again which is nothing new. For decades. programs across the country have tried multiple ways to kind of “game” the system a little bit with their football schedules. All of it was in the hopes of a better record for a better postseason. The different tactics didn’t work for everyone all of the time, but once a pattern was proved to work, more and more fell in line.
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Up until now, these schemes didn’t really negatively affect Notre Dame very much, and to be honest, they likely helped the Irish as programs looked to find one big out of conference game (which was part of a past formula) and Notre Dame was a great option (even when they weren’t good).
The 12 team college football playoff is changing everything. More programs think they have a chance to make the playoff, and are now looking for ways to ensure they have as good of a chance as anyone. And, what is the way?
Just get some wins.
The last three national champions have something more in common than just being from the Big 10. Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana all went through their championship regular season without playing any out of conference Power 4 opponents. While it would seem like an important stat, the committee never talks about the number of Power 4 wins a program has as they rank them. 2024 Ohio State, for example, had a grand total of 7 Power 4 wins during the regular season.
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Curt Cignetti talked about Indiana following the “SEC model” as they dropped OOC games against Virginia and Louisville for “easier” matchups against FCS and G6 schools. It was viewed as weak, and people made fun of it, and yet… they are the current national champions — and programs all over are taking notice.
The thing is though… it leaves far less wiggle room throughout the season, and I’m not sure this is a thing everyone can do. The SEC and Big 10 get preferential treatment by the committee whether they admit it or not. Miami, for example, probably isn’t making the CFP this year if they would have played UAB or Georgia State or some other G6 school instead of Notre Dame in the season opener. Miami would have been a 10-2 team that didn’t play in a conference championship with Pitt, likely, being their best win.
BYU is another school that needed more on its plate to make the playoff as wins over Sacramento State, Stanford, and East Carolina didn’t help them.
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So, yeah, there’s a pattern here but the pattern isn’t for everyone despite them really wanting it to be true. They want it to be true bad enough, that more and more AD’s might try this path.
So where does that leave Notre Dame? The USC Trojans are already running scared for this “path” but the Irish replaced them with a BYU program that needs a game like ND. With the Irish schedule for the foreseeable future being well endowed with quality opponents (2026 not withstanding) I’m not sure how much it really affects them despite the threats.
Take 2027 for example.
Notre Dame has 9 games scheduled with 8 of those games being against a Power 4 opponent. There are 3 spots open, and despite the threats, the Irish could easily fill this schedule with a Shamrock Series game vs a G6 and two away games against a random Power 4 school that would love the chance of the ND circus coming to town (or some different combination).
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Now let’s take a peek at 2028.
HOLY CURT CIGNETTI! The Irish have 3 SEC schools scheduled for 2028. More importantly than who’s on right now, is what’s left. Notre Dame only needs 2 more opponents, and with only 5 home games up there, they could bring a G6 school to South Bend for one, and dangle a neutral sites game in front of a Power 4 random (or another G6).
So we might as well take a look at 2029.
Oh look…. another 10 games scheduled and another chance to easily just bring in 2 G6 opponents to Notre Dame Stadium. Seems fine to me.
Personally I prefer schedules that make the entire season more interesting, and the trend that most are talking about, would likely make things less interesting. Maybe — who knows?
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Of course any number of these non-ACC schools (plus Navy) could decide to use a lawyer to get out of the game, but I kind of doubt it. So for the next four years, there isn’t much to be worried about in terms of scheduling if you’re Notre Dame. While there may be more and more teams looking for an easier path, things change quickly, and CFB over the last 20 years has a knack of overreacting after a century of doing nothing.
No matter what coaches say, there still seems to be as little of a need for Notre Dame to join a conference as ever before. Even if there is a scheduling coup d’etat, the playoff seems likely destined for a 16 team or 24 team format, and makes the actions of the traitors of college football’s regular season even less impactful than right now. Yep… looking right at you Southern Cal.
Cowards.
