Michigan basketball is one game away from making program history.
The No. 2 Wolverines (20-1, 10-1 Big Ten) have tied their best start in their 110-year existence and with a win over Penn State on Thursday, Feb. 5 (6:30 p.m., FS1) at Crisler Center, would have 21 victories through 22 games for the first time.
Advertisement
This will be Michigan’s second matchup with the Nittany Lions and their intention is to play a much cleaner game than the last time around. In the game in Happy Valley last month, U-M allowed a 15-point lead evaporate into a two-point game in the final 30 seconds. Penn State had two looks to tie or take the lead, which included a 3-point heave at the buzzer that clanged off the back iron to allow Michigan to survive, 74-72, at Bryce Jordan Center.
“I heard a coach say it the other day, ‘it’s not who you play, it’s when you play them’,” May said. “The ebbs and flows of the season, where you catch them in their schedule and your schedule, you know those things all matter. We’ve got a Penn State team [coming in] that gave us everything and then some [in our last meeting].”
Michigan also didn’t have to contend with freshman guard Kayden Mingo, Penn State’s leading scorer, who was out in that contest. Mingo enters this game averaging 14.1 points per game and oozing with confidence after he hit the game-winning floater in the final second to beat Minnesota, 77-75, in PSU’s most recent game on Sunday.
Freddie Dilone V, who missed the 3-pointer in the last game that would’ve given Penn State its biggest win in years, also comes in with some juice, having tied a season-high with 25 points against the Gophers.
Advertisement
But the man who U-M likely has honed in on for this scout is Ivan Jurić, the 7-foot Croatian who scored a career-high 20 points vs. the Wolverines last time around and banged home a pair of 3-pointers while stretching the floor and testing Aday Mara’s perimeter defense.
MONARREZ: Tom Izzo, Dusty May jabs show there’s a real rivalry. Ain’t it grand?
Jan 6, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) drives the ball to the basket during the second half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
All of this said, the game is not expected to be particularly close. KenPom gives U-M a 99% chance to win and has a final expected score of 94-67. It’s not hard to see why, given the Wolverines come in having won six straight, five by double figures and two in a row against top-10 teams in the nation.
Advertisement
Yaxel Lendeborg enters off the best game of his U-M career, having put up 26 points and 12 rebounds in an 83-71 win over Michigan State, while freshman Trey McKenney is also trending up. After a three-game slump in mid-January where he scored 14 total points, the former McDonalds All-American from Orchard Lake Saint Mary’s has scored double figures in four consecutive games.
He’s had two other stretches this year with four games of 10 or more in a row, but never done so in five straight.
Jan 6, 2026; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Michigan guard Trey McKenney (1) looks for a way to the basket as Penn State Nittany Lions guard Eli Rice (11) defends during the second half at Bryce Jordan Center. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
“He’s getting better and better, and his role is growing,” May said earlier in the week. “It’s not because he made [two 3-pointers] last game. It’s because of the way we’re functioning when he’s in the game, and because he’s so reliable and dependable.”
Advertisement
Michigan is one of four teams (Arizona, Duke, Iowa State) in the nation to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is why the Wolverines have found different ways to win. Last week against Nebraska, U-M held the Huskers to just 22 points in the second half. Then, Friday in East Lansing, Michigan put up 83 on the previously top-ranked defense in the country.
May’s team has showed up in all the big spots this year, a perfect 7-0 in Quad 1 games and 10-0 away from Ann Arbor, with the one loss in a Quad 2 game vs Wisconsin. It took a nearly perfect shooting night from the Badgers to get it done and while Penn State is not as good as Wisconsin, Michigan must not allow another opponent to lead in the second half in its own building (which has happened in three of its last four games).
“We just got to stick with it,” forward Morez Johnson Jr. said of the team’s Big Ten night-to-night mentality. “We just got to make sure we do what we do and eventually we overwhelm the team.”
Michigan vs Penn State prediction
This is the first time Michigan will have seen the same team twice this year (it will happen again this weekend when Michigan travels to Ohio State) and that figures to be an advantage for U-M. Not only is it a more talented team, but the coaching staff makes elite in-game adjustments and with an entire game to work off of, those tweaks might be even better. Though U-M has five double-digit wins in its past six games, it’s been more than a month since Michigan beat a team by 12 or more. That changes in this one. The pick: Michigan 90, Penn State 69.
Advertisement
Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball game vs Penn State, prediction, tv channel
