Who: Buffalo Sabres (32-18-6, 70 points, 3rd place Atlantic Division) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (28-15-12, 68 points, 2nd place Metropolitan Division)
When: 7:00 p.m. eastern
How to Watch: Locally broadcast on Sportsnet Pittsburgh and MSG-B, streaming on ESPN+
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Pens’ Path Ahead: The path for most of the players is an enviable one to spend some time with their families in tropical confines during the NHL’s three-week Olympic break that starts after tonight. The Pens don’t play again until three weeks from tonight at home against New Jersey (Feb 26) leaving for a lot of R&R in the future for most of the team.
Opponent Track: The Sabres have slowed down recently, if ever-so-slightly. They’ve traded wins and losses in the last four outings (beating LA, losing to Montreal, beating Florida and losing to Tampa [OT]) and are 6-2-2 in their last 10. That’s pretty decent, but then again they were 8-2-0 in the prior 10 game stretch and 8-3-0 before that. Since Thanksgiving, Buffalo’s 23-8-2 record is the best in the NHL.
Season Series: The Penguins won 4-2 back on November 26th, dropping Buffalo to 29th place in the NHL with a 9-10-4 record. That wasn’t quite rock bottom for the Sabres (they would lose 5-0 to NJ in the next game) but it was close. After tonight’s game, Buffalo makes one more trip to Pittsburgh on March 5th to close out the three-game season series.
Hidden Stat: Pittsburgh has points in five-straight road games (4-0-1) and are 7-1-1 in their last nine road games, per Pens PR.
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Getting to know the Sabres
Projected lines
FORWARDS
Peyton Krebs – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch
Jason Zucker – Ryan McLeod – Jack Quinn
Josh Doan – Noah Ostlund – Konsta Helenius
Isak Rosen – Tyson Kozak – Brock Malenstyn
DEFENSEMEN
Mattias Samuelsson / Rasmus Dahlin
Bowen Byram / Owen Power
Zach Metsa / Jacob Bryson
Goalies: Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis
Potential scratches: Zach Benson, Jordan Greenway, Michael Kesselring
Injured Reserve: Josh Norris, Justin Danforth, Jiri Kulich, Josh Dunne, Connor Timmins, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
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Norris, who last played on Jan 14, was nearing a return. It remains unknown as of now if he’ll be able to comeback for this last game before the break or if they will keep him to the side until afterwards.
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The break is coming at a good time for Buffalo, Benson and Greenway are also dealing with injuries and starting goalie Luukkonen unfortunately had to pull away from Team Finland due to his injury.
Season stats
via hockeydb
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The man dubbed the ‘Lyon King’ has been instrumental in Buffalo’s turn of play. Alex Lyon is 11-1-0 with a 2.08 GAA and .930 save% since December 7th when the Sabres started making their big turnaround. Ellis played on Tuesday against Tampa, so presumably the net will be Lyon’s tonight.
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Many others, of course, have been stepping up too. Thompson has 36 points (17G+19A) in the last 28 games. Dahlin (10G+19A) has been amazing as well. McLeod (6G+20A) has been stacking up points. Tuch (13G+11A) in his last 27 is playing his way into a big ticket in his contract year.
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It’s a big shame that Norris (who has played 8, 50, 56 and now 19 games this season) can’t stay off the IR. His talent is right there but his availability has not allowed him to unlock it.
Key to the game: Which offense comes through?
This game features the two hottest offenses since Christmas, with Pittsburgh and Buffalo tied at exactly 4.05 goals/game. The better question could be reversed for which defense and goaltending can stand up to those offenses but it does stand to reason that the winning team is going to need (at least) four goals tonight.
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Another key will be the first period. The Penguins are tops in the NHL with 28 total goals in the first periods since Christmas, the Sabres aren’t far behind with 26. Pittsburgh has been stingier by only allowing 11 first period goals, compared to 20 by Buffalo. A strong first is a great base to have for the rest of the game, the Penguins can’t rest on that alone since Buffalo has been great in the second periods (outscoring opponents by a combined score of 26-13). As a result, the Sabres have only been trailing in one game out of their last 20 after the second period mark.
A troubling statistical outlook shows the Sabres as a team that gets stronger as the game goes along (29 third period goals). The third has been the weakest for the Pens, giving up 20 goals. This likely will not be a comfortable game if the Pens are clinging to a late lead, but that situation is often times better than the alternative.
And now for the Pens
Projected lines
FORWARDS
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Rickard Rakell – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Egor Chinakhov – Tommy Novak – Evgeni Malkin
Anthony Mantha – Ben Kindel – Justin Brazeau
Connor Dewar – Blake Lizotte – Noel Acciari
DEFENSEMEN
Parker Wotherspoon / Erik Karlsson
Brett Kulak / Ryan Shea
Ilya Solovyov / Connor Clifton
Goalies: Arturs Silovs and Stuart Skinner
Potential Scratches: Rutger McGroarty, Kevin Hayes, Ryan Graves
IR: Kris Letang, Filip Hallander, Caleb Jones (suspended), Jack St. Ivany
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The Penguins had an off day yesterday as they finish out this stretch.
Mantha has been red hot lately, almost a shame the break is coming up to stop his recent tear. It’ll be interesting to see how the Pens’ productive second line stacks up against a Buffalo team that can roll two solid defensive pairs in the matchup category there.
