Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira prediction: Small cage chaos

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 266’s main event featherweight title fight between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira.

Mario Bautista UFC Fight Night 266 preview

Mario Bautista, UFC Fight Night 266 media day interview

Staple info:

Record: 16-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC
Height: 5’9″ Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 72″
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing

Supplemental info:

Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
Consistent pace and pressure
^ Good cardio and conditioning
Improved overall striking
^ Jabs, footwork, bodywork
^ Offensively and defensively
Good transitional grappling
^ Can work from top or bottom
+/- 4-1 in the Apex (5-1 overall in UFC small cages)

Vinicius Oliveira UFC Fight Night 266 preview

Vinicius Oliveira, UFC Fight Night 266 media day interview

Staple info:

Record: 23-3 MMA, 4-0 UFC
Height: 5’9″ Age: 30 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
Camp: Sombre Team (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai

Supplemental info:

Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
Aggressive pace and pressure
+/- favors low-handed defense
^ Likes to slip and rip punches
^ coming forward and off the counter
Serviceable wrestling ability
+/- 1-0 in the UFC Apex (2-0 counting DWCS)

Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira point of interest: Striking inside the small cage

Jun 29, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Ricky Simon (red gloves) fights Vinicius Oliveira (blue gloves) during UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The main event inside the Apex is a bantamweight banger between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira.

Hailing from the well-respected MMA LAB, Bautista has proven to be a product of his environment, given his consistent skills progression.

Bautista’s dynamism and potential were clearly apparent early on in his UFC career, but the Nevada-born fighter steadily sharpened and focused on fundamentals after a setback opposite Trevin Jones. Since then, Bautista has improved significantly at staying balanced and disguising his entries and shifts behind the appropriate offense.

Whether he’s working behind proding feints or committed jabs, Bautista is good about varying his offense to the body. And when Bautista does look to shift his stance coming forward, he does well at advancing behind dangerous knees and kicks.

Bautista is also good at circling off attacks with diligent footwork, but still needs to be extra mindful about what’s coming back at him this Saturday.

Enter Oliveira.

Don’t let the Brazilian Bobby Green impersonation fool you: there’s a clear method to Oliveira’s low-handed madness.

A counter-fighter at heart, Oliveira loves to lure opponents in so that he can counter in combination. A fan of the ‘slip and rip,’ Oliveira is good at counterbalancing defense into offense.

When feeling in stride, Oliveira will unload everything from flying knees to Mortal Kombat-like combinations along the cage. Straight punches and body attacks appear to be a potent two-way street for Oliveira’s style, but he’s shown the ability to power through adversity when he needs to.

Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Considering the kind of chaos that the smaller octagon of the Apex tends to encourage, no one should be shocked if this fight ends up on the floor.

Although Oliveira carries a slightly higher average of takedown attempts in his career, I suspect that Bautista will be the more willing grappler this weekend.

Coming from an excellent jiu-jitsu and MMA grappling gym, Bautista has quietly developed one of the more well-rounded styles in his weight class. Not only is the longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt a solid submission grappler, but Bautista has smartly sharpened his wrestling skills over recent years.

Whether he’s working from the clinch or changing levels in the open, Bautista demonstrates a more than serviceable wrestling acumen.

Even when taken down, Bautista is a top-level scrambler who is able to stay urgent while staying safe (which is much harder than it sounds). That said, if Bautista does elect to grapple with Oliveira, it will be paramount for him to be in a positive position.

A dogged grappler through and through, “LokDog” has shown that he’s not afraid to walk through the fire in order to make his opposition feel his weight and power.

Often finding himself in the clinch, Oliveira works well from double underhooks, utilizing the position to secure takedowns along the fence. Once topside, Oliveira’s pressure continues in the form of punishing strikes to positional advances.

Oliveira also shows solid first-layer takedown defense, but has shown some struggles when he’s unable to scramble out from negative positions.

Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the higher-ranked fighter, listing Bautista -170 and Oliveira +138 via FanDuel.

Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira prediction, pick

Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, it’s difficult deny Oliveira as a live underdog.

Aside from the sheer size and athleticism he brings to the table, Oliveira has proven that he can fight and win through injury and fatigue alike. And even if there are serious questions about how his stamina and style will hold up over a potential five frames, “LokDog” appears to be a fighter who can gain momentum over time.

Still, there are no biological free lunches in life, so I expect the 30-year-old Brazilian to hit a point of diminishing returns sooner rather than later, considering both his age and the amount of weight he is cutting to make the bantamweight limit.

Moreover, Oliveira, who is incredibly offensively minded, has some defensive holes that are hard to overlook.

From his sometimes lackadaisical defense to his propensity to eat straight and body shots alike, it’s hard not to see a disciplined striker like Bautista winning massive minutes of this fight behind his educated lead hand and footwork. I also believe that Bautista is the better wrestler and submission grappler of the two, something that I suspect the smaller octagon of the Apex will suss out.

Bautista is also one of the few fighters who can match Oliveira’s size and stamina (if not exceed him on the latter), so I’ll side with the more proven product here.

I expect John Crouch and company to have a good game plan for Bautista, seeing as how this will be the MMA LAB’s second consecutive swing at bat against Oliveira after Kyler Phillips came up short last year. Oliviera will be live for a stoppage in the first few rounds, but I’ll bank on Bautista staying ahead of him and pulling away down the stretch.

Late stoppages could be live, but I’ll officially pick Bautista to win a competitive but clear decision on the scorecards.

Prediction: Bautista by decision

Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira start time, how to watch

As the main event, Bautista and Oliveira are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:35 p.m. ET. The fight airs on Paramount+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira pick, odds, time: UFC Vegas 113

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