When the Duke Blue Devils arrive in Chapel Hill in the early afternoon on Saturday, the program will be without a loss to an ACC opponent for 364 days. Since a 77-71 loss at Clemson on February 8, 2025, Duke has won 20 straight games. Two of those 20 were against the Tar Heels.
In the 266th meeting between these teams, Saturday night’s game is the 88th ranked-vs-ranked game in the series. A third of the games between these programs have been between ranked squads, and it outpaces the next closest rivalry by 47 games.
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At time of writing, the Blue Devils are 5.5 to 6.5-point favorites. What will it take for Carolina to knock off fourth-ranked Duke?
Duke ranks in the top five nationally in both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. From field goal percentage defense to scoring margin, the Blue Devils dominate both ends of the floor.
So far this season, both teams have played Kansas, Michigan State, Florida State, SMU, Wake Forest, Stanford, Cal, and Georgia Tech.
On the bright side, Carolina had a much more convincing win over Georgia Tech in the Thrillerdome than the six-point Duke win in Cameron Indoor, and the Seminoles put up much more of a fight against the Blue Devils than they did against the Tar Heels. But the big contrast was the West Coast swing in January. Duke convincingly beat Stanford and Cal by a combined +45 scoring margin, while UNC dropped both in embarrassing ways. The glaring issue was the Tar Heels’ perimeter defense, as Carolina allowed a combined 23 made three-pointers across those two losses.
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Setting aside the late letdown in the win over Syracuse, though, Carolina is playing some of their best basketball since the loss at Cal three weeks ago.
The focus on the game will be in the frontcourt, and for good reason. This game will boast two lottery picks in the 2026 NBA Draft. Duke freshman Cameron Boozer is tied for second in the nation in scoring with 23.3 points per game and leads the ACC with 9.9 rebounds per game. The son of former Blue Devil Carlos Boozer is the National Player of the Year frontrunner.
Caleb Wilson is now averaging 20 points per game and is just a tick behind Boozer at 9.8 rebounds per game. His ability to grab a board and initiate the break has continued to improve as the season has progressed, and this transition offense will be a key to victory for the Heels. This game will be won or lost in the paint, either through strength, efficiency, attrition, or just plain effort.
Head coach Hubert Davis said this in his Thursday press conference:
We aren’t looking at Duke’s record. We’re looking at how they rebound. They are elite at second-chance points. For us to win on Saturday, we have to finish plays. It’s not enough to play 29 seconds of good defense. You have to get the ball.
Duke ranks in the top five nationally in defensive rebounding percentage per KenPom equivalents, and allows the fewest second-chance points per game in the ACC. This strength ties directly to frontcourt size and quick rotations to close out possessions.
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How does Carolina gain an edge?
First, Henri Veesaar and Wilson must counter Boozer on the defensive end of the court. Boozer is a defensive anchor, but can Veesaar’s range or Wilson’s lateral quickness in space get him out of position?
The next part is Duke’s thin frontcourt. Ifeanyi Ufochukwu had a season-ending injury, so Patrick Ngongba and Maliq Brown are the other pieces up front.
UNC must attack Ngongba. In 13 of 22 games this season, he has finished with three or more personal fouls. This will thin the rotation and force Duke to go smaller.
Ngongba is also Duke’s rim protector, so drawing him away from the basket opens the lane up for high-percentage shots and second-chance opportunities.
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The Blue Devils rank 15th in the ACC in three-point percentage and 198th nationally—not the typical deep threat team that can be expected from Durham. However, the defensive liabilities are still in the back of the minds of Tar Heel fans, so keep an eye on Isaiah Evans, who leads the Blue Devils with 52 made threes in 22 games this season. Seth Trimble will likely get this assignment.
An underrated factor will be Jarin Stevenson. Stevenson’s ability to sub in and allow UNC to play a “switch-everything” defense will be critical if Duke goes smaller or if Wilson or Veesaar need to sit. And if he and Luka Bogavac can outproduce the Duke bench, Carolina will find another area to find some plus margins.
The focus in the frontcourt is also reflected in Duke’s pace. The Blue Devils rank 250th in adjusted tempo. The Tar Heels must force Duke into a high-possession game and exploit the Blue Devils’ lack of bench depth in the frontcourt.
It is looking like a good one on Saturday night. Let’s see if the Tar Heels are ready.
