Those of us who follow UW Men’s Basketball have spent weeks talking about how the schedule will eventually get softer and the Dawgs could make a run. Seven of their last 10 opponents have been ranked in the top 26 in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank (similar to KenPom, but free!). The Dawgs beat the three non-elite teams and lost to numbers 1, 4, 9, 11, 13, 18, and 26. While UCLA doesn’t exactly represent a softening in the schedule (#37, still a Quad I game), it’s at least a little less lopsided than some of those matchups. If the Dawgs can get the win at Pauley Pavilion, T-Rank has them as a favorite in each of their last seven games, so it could be very meaningful come Selectin Sunday.
The Bruins come into the game having won four of five, including a statement victory over Purdue at the start of that run. They have been very good at home all year, but lost two games ago to Indiana in double OT. Like Washington, they are decent at both ends of the court (44th offense, 50th defense), but great at neither. Unlike Washington, they get to a decent offense mostly through great shooting- they rank 18th in the country in 3P accuracy vs. 262nd for the Dawgs. They are led by several transfers who were at least tangentially connected to UW at some point. The Dawgs went after Kennewick native Tyler Bilodeau when he transferred from Oregon State, and he has surged to 18.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 45% shooting from three as a senior. PG Donovan Dent was a prized target when he left New Mexico after last year. His 13.5 points and 7.0 assists are excellent, but his shooting has been a problem (41.9% overall, 21.1% from outside after 40.9% last year). Skyy Clark, a former borderline 5-star prospect who started at Illinois, has missed time with an injury, but is shooting 48.6% from the perimeter.
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UW will need to defend Dent will in the pick and roll because his drives are key to unlocking the four rotation players shooting over 40% from outside. UCLA stretches the floor, which translates into some weakness on the glass. The Huskies’ double big lineups should be able to add some extra possessions on the glass. If the Huskies can shoot in the mid-30s from the perimeter instead of the 20s, they should be able to stay in the game.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM PT and will air on FS1. Tony Castricone and Jason Hamilton will call the game for KJR-FM.
Go Dawgs!
