The Illinois Fighting Illini are the hottest team in the Big Ten as they visit the reeling Michigan State Spartans on Saturday, February 7.
The Fighting Illini have won 12 in a row, their longest winning streak since 2013. The Spartans, meanwhile, have lost back-to-back games, doubling their season total for defeats.
Michigan State needs a win in the worst way. And in the heat of conference season, the victory usually goes to the team most desperate for one.
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That’s why my Illinois vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks call for the Spartans to get the win.
Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Breslin Center in East Lansing, with the game airing on FOX.
Illinois vs Michigan State prediction
Illinois vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State moneyline (-125)
The Illinois Fighting Illini have been nearly flawless in 2026, riding the nation’s most efficient offense and a 12-game winning streak. The cracks appear against elite competition. While the Illini dominate lower-tier opponents, Quad I teams have consistently scored more efficiently, especially inside the arc and from three.
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Illinois’ two-point defense slips sharply against top opponents, and the same pattern shows up beyond the arc, where winning teams have shot well above its season averages. The Michigan State Spartans fit that exact profile.
Over its last nine games, including two recent losses, the Spartans have converted at an elite rate on two-pointers, far exceeding their season norms and exposing the same weaknesses that have already beaten Illinois.
Illinois vs Michigan State same-game parlay
This game will be a rock fight.
Michigan State has the No. 4 defense in the country, and Illinois is No. 20. Michigan State has the No. 1 offensive rebounding rate. Illinois is No. 19. Both teams rank below No. 250 nationally in tempo, and neither has gone Over the game total in seven of their last 10 games.
Jeremy Fears has been the center of the storm at Michigan State. Once Fears sees the floor, however, expect him to be focused and fiery. He scored 14 or more in 10 straight games, averaging 19.8, before his 10-point stinker at Minnesota.
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Illinois vs Michigan State SGP
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Jeremy Fears Over 13.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Have no Fears!
Jaxon Kohler averages 9.1 rebounds this season, but his output drops by a full rebound per game against Quad I opponents. In the last six, his average dropped to 6.3 rebounds per game.
Illinois vs Michigan State SGP
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Jeremy Fears Over 13.5 points
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Jaxon Kohler Under 7.5 rebounds
Illinois vs Michigan State odds
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Spread: Illinois +1.5 (-115) | Michigan State -1.5 (-105)
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Moneyline: Illinois +100 | Michigan State -120
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Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-110) | Under 144.5 (-110)
Illinois vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Illinois vs Michigan State
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Location |
Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
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Date |
Saturday, February 7, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
8:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
FOX |
Illinois vs Michigan State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
