Fueled by a 14-3-3 run since Christmas break that ranked second in the NHL, the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves sitting pretty in the Eastern Conference’s playoff picture when the NHL took its pause for the Olympics.
Pittsburgh’s season so far can be neatly broken into three segments; there was the hot 8-2-2 start that got them off to a strong footing followed by a period from Halloween to Christmas where they struggled to a 7-10-7 record that put them around the bottom of the league in that stretch, followed by the return to the top up to the Olympics from the period of Christmas onward.
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That does leave one to wonder what will come next in the upcoming unofficial fourth segment of the season when games resume. Unfortunately for the Pens, it’s going to be a tough path to travel. They have the NHL’s toughest remaining strength of schedule based on quality of opponent. From Tankathon:
The Pens still have a lot of obstacles in their path in what looks like a brutal slate in March. The Pens will play 17 games in the month, tough enough as that may be it’s even more daunting seeing 14 of those 17 opponents currently in a playoff position. Seven of those games come against teams that are currently first in their division. That will be highlighted with three March games against Carolina, the team the Penguins find themselves eight points behind for first place in the Metropolitan Division.
Despite the upcoming brutal path, most models are bullish on the Pens’ chances to make the playoffs due to the strong work they’ve put together to this point. The Athletic is projecting a season finish of 95.8 points, Hockeystats.com is at 98. The Pens’ current statistical pace is 103 points based off how they’ve done so far. The team already has 70 points with 26 games to go, meaning both models are expecting close to a .500 finish in the games that remain. That could be something to keep in mind, if the Pens can over-perform that figure then their projections will shift up, and the opposite will hold true if the losses and regulation losses start stacking up again.
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Even though it can be seen as a tough development to take a pause while the team has been among the NHL’s best in the last six weeks, the Olympic break likely still comes at a good time for the Pens overall. The break gives Kris Letang a chance to heal his broken foot without missing as many games. Evgeni Malkin was gutting through a shoulder problem that gets the benefit of added time off. Stuart Skinner was going into a slide and gets an opportunity for a reset. Pittsburgh will need all three veterans to play well down the stretch, the break provides them all a better chance compared to if the NHL season kept rolling on like it would in a non-Olympic year.
The NHL season is nearing 70% done, the Penguins have an impressive body of work through that time. It’s set them up for a very realistic chance at doing what many thought couldn’t be done to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2022. There’s still a way to go and a short time to get there, which their fate will ultimately be determined by playing a very tough schedule when the games pick back up. That’s what meaningful hockey this time of year is all about.
