Notre Dame women’s basketball might be destined to head to the city of angels in March.
In ESPN’s latest NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament mock bracket, Notre Dame’s loss to Virginia on Sunday, Feb. 8, affected the Cavaliers a whole lot more than it did the Irish. The Tuesday, Feb. 10 “Bracketology” update from Charlie Creme has Notre Dame as a No. 8 in the No. 1 seed UCLA Bruins’ Los Angeles host site, while Virginia (17-7, 9-4 ACC) is the “last team in.”
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In this scenario, the Irish (15-9, 7-6 ACC) would face nine-seeded Mississippi State (16-8, 3-7 SEC).
This would be just the third time Notre Dame squared off against the Bulldogs, all in the NCAA Tournament. The most recent game came in March 2023 when the Irish won 53-48 in the second round. The more notable contest was the 2018 National Championship when Notre Dame triumphed 61-58 on a buzzer-beating ‘3’ from Arike Ogunbowale.
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Other Tournament projections for Notre Dame women’s basketball
The NCAA’s latest mock bracket from Autumn Johnson was published Wednesday, Feb. 4, before Notre Dame’s win against Virginia Tech and loss to Virginia. However, the projection was nearly identical to ESPN’s six days later, but the Irish were a nine seed while Mississippi State held the eight still in Los Angeles.
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CBS Sports has not released a mock bracket since Jan. 27. At that time, Notre Dame was 13-7 heading into a West Coast road trip in which the Irish went 1-1. Yet, CBS’ Connor Groel also projected Notre Dame as an eight seed in Los Angeles, this time facing No. 9 Oregon (18-8, 6-7 Big Ten).
The only time the Irish have ever faced the Ducks was in an 84-74 Elite Eight victory in 2018.
All three of these projections would be the Irish’s lowest seed in an NCAA Tournament since going into the 2007 field as a nine seed.
Why Notre Dame isn’t a bubble team (yet)
With just five games left in the regular season, the Irish are ninth in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) standings and already have their most losses since the 2021-22 season. Virginia is sixth in the ACC standings and boasts a win over Notre Dame, yet the Cavaliers sit as a bubble team while the Irish don’t.
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In fact, all of ESPN’s last four teams to make the tournament are ACC squads, and three of them are above Notre Dame in the standings. The Irish are 2-2 against the group as a whole, with wins against Virginia Tech (18-7, 8-5 ACC) and Stanford (16-9, 5-7 ACC), and losses to Virginia and Clemson (17-8, 8-5 ACC).
Why Notre Dame isn’t sweating its chances to make the NCAA Tournament yet is due to its strength of schedule, and the quality of both its wins and losses. In 10 Quad 1 games this season, the Irish are 3-7, but four of those losses came against teams in the NET rankings’ top nine.
In four Quad 2 games this year, Notre Dame is 2-2. Of the Irish’s five remaining regular season games, three of them are against Quad 1 opponents, including a projected No. 2 seed in Louisville (22-4, 12-1 ACC).
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It certainly doesn’t hurt Notre Dame’s case that it features one of the nation’s best players in Hannah Hidalgo. The junior is the third-highest scorer per game in the country (24.9) and the leader in steals per game (5.4) with a 44-point, 16-steal performance against Akron Nov. 12 that broke the single-game NCAA steal and Notre Dame scoring record.
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Senior Cass Prosper has also stood out as one of the country’s best forwards and most improved players, averaging 15 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
If the Irish can win even one of their three upcoming Quad 1 contests, beat two Quad 3 teams on the road and win a couple of games in the ACC Tournament, these recent projections should hold.
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Kyle Smedley is a sports reporter at the South Bend Tribune. Contact him via email at ksmedley@usatodayco.com or follow him on X @KyleMSmedley.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: NCAA Tournament brackets have Notre Dame women’s basketball at UCLA
