Purdue Basketball: Nebraska Preview – Stats, Analytics, Analysis

Nebraska 2025-2026 Season

Overall Record: 21-2

Big 10 Record: 10-2

Previous 3 Games

2/7: W – 80 – 68 vs Rutgers @ Away

2/1: L – 69 – 78 vs Illinois @ Home

1/27: L – 72 – 75 vs Michigan @ Away

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Nebraska Personnel

Starters

Bench

Key Analytics

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())

KenPom Ranking – 12

Offense

Adjusted Efficiency: 121.6 (29) – Big 10 Only: 117.3 (5)

Adjusted Tempo: 66.8 (204) – Big 1o Only: 65.8 (7)

Average Possession Length: 16.9 (104) – Big 1o Only: 19 (17)

Effective Field Goal%: 56.3 (25) – Big 1o Only: 50.2 (6)

Offensive Rebound%: 25.9 (328) – Big 1o Only: 23.1 (18)

Three Point%: 35.7 (81) – Big 1o Only: 38.2 (1)

Two Point %: 59.3 (25) – Big 1o Only: 57.1 (4)

Defense

Adjusted Efficiency: 93.7 (11) – Big 1o Only: 101.2 (3)

Adjusted Tempo: 66.8 (204) – Big 1o Only: 65.8 (7)

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Average Possession Length: 18.4 (341) – Big 1o Only: 19 (17)

Effective Field Goal%: 47.5 (38) – Big 1o Only: 50.2 (6)

Offensive Rebound%: 27.1 (41) – Big 1o Only: 27.4 (4)

Three Point%: 30.2 (228) – Big 1o Only: 30.4 (3)

Two Point %: 49.6 (141) – Big 1o Only: 54.3 (8)

Key Stat for Purdue

Offense

(Per KenPom.com – Big 10 Rank in ())

Effective FG%

Purdue Offense: 57.6 (2)

Nebraska Defense: 50.2 (6)

Thoughts:

Purdue’s offense has to dominate this game. Nebraska can be a streaky shooting team; if the Boilermakers can be steady on offense, there will be opportunities to build a lead or get Nebraska back in after they go on a run. Conversely, if the Boilermakers hit a dry spell and Nebraska hits one of its patented three-point barrages, the game could get out of hand.

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Either way, Purdue needs to put the ball in the basket.

Defense

Three Point%

Purdue Defense: 34.6 (12)

Nebraska Offense: 38.2 (1)

Thoughts:

Purdue struggles to contain three-point shooters. Purdue overhelps and over-switches on defense (in my humble opinion), which leads to open outside shots. Any drive that threatens the lane opens up multiple outside shooters. Purdue’s guards go under screens or switch everything.

Best-case scenario? Nebraska is cold because they’re going to get plenty of opportunities.

Brief Thoughts

Can Purdue avoid the big Nebraska run?

The Cornhuskers are going to put together a few runs because of their shooting. Purdue can handle a couple of 10-to-3 runs because Nebraska can also go cold. What they can’t handle is a 15-3 run that allows the Cornhuskers to play in clean air. Purdue has to stay attached to this team’s hip and hope to outplay them down the stretch.

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Nebraska doesn’t have much depth. Maybe Purdue finally decides to play big boy ball in the paint instead of flipping shots at the rim? Getting Mast in foul trouble would be much appreciated.

Fletcher Loyer is 10-14 from three over the last two games. If anyone can match Nebraska shot-for-shot, it’s a red-hot Loyer. I’d like to see Purdue run some offense for him early and see if they can get him going. He’s been using his ability to draw fouls and get to the line to calibrate his deep shooting. I’d like to see him aggressive early.

Predictions

KenPom

Purdue: 71

Nebraska: 74

Drew

Purdue: 68

Nebraska: 67

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Looking Into the Crystal Ball

Look, I’m a homer. If you’re looking for an unbiased prediction, a team blog probably isn’t the best resource. Illinois and Michigan beat up Nebraska on the inside. Purdue turns back the clock, allows TKR to work in the paint, and softens up the Cornhusker interior early. It’s a back-and-forth game. Purdue has the ball last, and Loyer finishes off his career day with a dagger 3 over Hoiberg.

(As an admitted homer, even I’m a little embarrassed by the above paragraph…unless it happens, of course…then you heard it here first.)