AFL Origin is back after nearly three decades, but with its return comes big questions. Is this just a one-off novelty, or the start of something bigger? Will the players actually care?
Here are three key concerns hanging over Origin’s long-awaited return, and what to look out for when Western Australia hosts Victoria at Optus Stadium.
Is this a one-off novelty, or the start of something bigger?
When the AFL confirmed the return of ‘State of Origin’ late last year, CEO Andrew Dillon said players and clubs were extensively courted about the idea, and the feedback was overwhelmingly positive. That alone suggests there is genuine appetite for the concept, but it doesn’t change that right now, in 2026, this still is just a one-off preseason game.
That’s the way it feels, but that’s inevitable, a game played during preseason carrying the perception of a ‘warm-up’ and a chance to blow out the cobwebs no matter what these state rivalries used to mean. It feels like that because players will be on managed minutes, there could be a natural will to avoid injury, there’s no round-robin, or a multi-game series, and no immediate commitment from the league beyond Saturday night’s match at Optus Stadium.
The concerns of this being a glorified exhibition game are only natural, but that doesn’t automatically mean the players won’t care or there won’t be any intensity at the contest, or that the sold-out crowd won’t embrace it.
If this is to become a fixture fans circle on the calendar each year, everything has to go right. The players must buy in, clubs need to be comfortable, fans must engage, and the AFL needs to work with all parties to evolve the concept into something that works. After all, it was concerned players and clubs — who often cited injury fears and prioritising the premiership season — who helped end Origin in 1999.
Everyone remembers the short-lived AFLX concept, which brought the hype, but lasted just two years in two different formats.
For now, Origin is a one-off, but what it becomes depends on what ensues this weekend.
What will Origin’s success actually look like for the AFL?
Ultimately, success will be measured by overall buy-in and numbers. Player engagement, match intensity, crowd attendance, TV ratings, and the post-match feedback is what will be factored in. The AFL already has one huge tick — a sold-out crowd — and with the season just around the corner, the appetite for footy is sky-high which means a mammoth TV audience — yes, even from those fans who say they “don’t really care”. You think they’re not gonna tune in even if only out of curiosity?
Bums on seats and television eyeballs is the modern reality and what will carry the most weight. Managed minutes to conserve player workloads and even a lopsided scoreline shouldn’t hurt the concept in the short-term. From the AFL’s perspective, you have to expect that if the numbers stack up then the experiment will be deemed worthwhile.
There needs to be some skepticism about the crowd, however. With all respect to fans out west, they could sell out watching paint dry. It’s the perfect location for this Origin concept, but would the result be the same in Melbourne? Or Adelaide? Certainly not Sydney or Brisbane.
Whether the Perth crowd (and TV numbers) is enough to justify long-term commitment to the concept is the big question. One year of this might not be a big enough sample size. And what the player feedback is will matter, too.
Could one bad injury derail the concept instantly?
Yes.
As we mentioned above, injury fear was one of the reasons State of Origin in the AFL ended before the turn of the century, with players prioritising the premiership season over state representation — something that was once seen as a major feather in the cap and one of the game’s biggest achievements outside of lifting the cup in September.
Are injuries an unavoidable part of football? Also yes. They happen at training, during practice matches, and throughout the season. Sometimes, it’s just bad luck. But this is where perception matters a lot. A minor soft-tissue injury shouldn’t — and won’t — be enough to kill the concept completely. The short-term setbacks like hamstring and calf strains, and bad corkies, are just part of the game.
But if a star player suffers a (touch wood) season-ending injury, rightly or wrongly, that’s the moment and the storyline that will dominate the narrative. Could one single incident really derail Origin? Again!? Given its history, it is possible. But it shouldn’t, really. Not yet anyway. High-speed, heavy-contact football carries risk, and expecting a meaningful match played without it is too unrealistic. If Origin is to survive, that reality needs to be accepted, even if the worst case scenario happens.
