On Thursday night, Northwestern (10-15, 2-12 B1G) heads to Lincoln to face the No. 7 Nebraska Cornhuskers (21-3, 10-3 B1G), just three days after its brutal 87-75 loss to No. 2 Michigan. On Wednesday, the ‘Cats led for most of the game until Michigan went on a 45-17 run starting at 14:03 in the second half, coming back from down 16 to win at Welsh-Ryan.
At Nebraska, Northwestern will look to avenge its January loss to the Cornhuskers and snap its four-game losing streak. Here are three keys for Northwestern against Nebraska:
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Stay quick
When the ‘Cats faced off against Nebraska earlier this year, the Cornhuskers ran them off the floor, shooting 51% from the field and 42% from the perimeter to turn in 77 points.
For much of the game, Nebraska head coach Fred Hoiberg played a brand of hybrid small-ball that has made Nebraska so lethal this season, with European bigs Rienk Mast and Berke Buyuktuncel playing for only a combined 48 minutes. Cornhusker small ball centers around four key players: coach’s son Sam Hoiberg, Pryce Sandfort, Jamarques Lawrence and Braden Frager.
Really, with the core four on the floor alongside Mast or Buyuktuncel, the Cornhuskers aren’t actually “small,” with Sandfort standing at 6-foot-7 and the Euro bigs both being a tall 6-foot-10. Rather, I use the term “small-ball” as a way to indicate how Nebraska attacks teams when its core four is on the floor.
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Hoiberg, Sandfort, Lawrence and Fraser are all quick and can beat you to the basket. Yet, on top of that, they all shoot the three-ball well, with each player averaging over 36.5% from deep. With those guards on the floor, Nebraska becomes extremely versatile offensively, playing five guys out on the perimeter and trusting that every player can win off the dribble, is smart enough to be a playmaker and can hit a three-point shot if left open behind the arc.
In January, Northwestern was overwhelmed by the quickness of Nebraska’s core four. Wildcat coach Chris Collins should turn to players like Tyler Kropp, Jordan Clayton and Jake West over guys like Max Green, Jayden Reid and Arrinten Page, who aren’t great one-on-one defenders and have proven to be easily burned by quicker, more skillful guard-play. Northwestern will need to make sure it has no defensive “weak link” on the floor, as Nebraska has the offensive versatility to exploit individual players and run them off of the court.
Win the rebounding battle
Can we stop talking about rebounding?
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Unfortunately, no.
Similarly to Northwestern, Nebraska is not a great rebounding team. In each of the Cornhuskers’ three losses this season, they’ve been outrebounded by double digits, most recently surrendering 54 rebounds in an overtime 80-77 loss to Purdue.
Nebraska averages 35.4 rebounds per game, just 3.3 more than Northwestern’s 32.1 rebounds per game, while surrendering 35.5 rebounds per game, just 0.5 fewer than Northwestern’s 36.0 opponent rebounds per game. Fred Hoiberg’s squad ranks 14th in the Big Ten in rebounding differential, while Collins’ squad ranks dead last.
The ‘Cats have paced the bottom of the conference in rebounding this season, but Nebraska is one of the only teams in the conference against whom they can compete. In fact, the ‘Cats outpaced the Cornhuskers 30-28 on the glass in their meeting earlier this season despite losing by 19.
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Against most teams, Northwestern matches up on the smaller side, with just one 6-foot-10-plus player who sees significant playing time in Arrinten Page. Yet, Nebraska is not that big either, with just two 6-foot-10-plus players in Mast and Buyuktuncel. The rest of the way, Northwestern actually has a size advantage, with Martinelli, Singleton and Kropp being bigger than Sandfort and Frager.
Against an efficient offensive unit like Nebraska, it’s unlikely the ‘Cats are able to shoot a higher percentage from the field than the Cornhuskers. However, if Northwestern can win the rebounding battle, and hopefully gain some extra possessions via offensive rebounds, it can still have a mathematical chance to win this game.
On Tuesday, Purdue shot just 37% from the field to Nebraska’s 44% but won the game due to its dominance on the boards. A key for Northwestern will be using this same recipe for success, winning the rebounding battle to find more cushion in terms of offensive efficiency.
Martinelli masterpiece
Over the ‘Cats’ recent four-game losing streak, Nick Martinelli, the Big Ten’s leading scorer at 22.5 points per game, has struggled. Martinelli has averaged just 15.5 points per game on 19-of-65 (29.2%) shooting from the field, well below his season average of 50.5%.
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Granted, Northwestern has played some of the conference’s best defenses as of late. Iowa, Michigan and Illinois rank one, four and five, respectively, in opponent points allowed per game in the Big Ten. Though Washington typically allows more points, it’s no slouch either, ranking top 50 on KenPom.com in adjusted defensive efficiency.
However, Nebraska is a matchup where Martinelli can find his footing.
When the ‘Cats faced off against the Cornhuskers in January, Martinelli scored 22 points on 9-of-22 shooting, grabbing 10 rebounds to go along with his efficient scoring performance. Intentionally, Nebraska played small ball for most of the game, with Mast playing just 2o minutes. Though limiting Mast’s minutes gave the Cornhuskers the added guard speed and athleticism to really work the ‘Cats’ on offense, it gave Martinelli room to be effective.
As a result of Mast playing just half the game, Nebraska oftentimes had just one player over 6-foot-8, 215 pounds on the court at the time, allowing the long, 6-foot-9 Martinelli to have favorable matchups in the paint. If you have access to Big Ten Plus, watch Martinelli’s highlights for the Nebraska game. NU’s star scored a lot of his buckets winning one-on-one matchups, playing either too quick for Mast or Buyuktuncel or too big for Sandfort or Frager.
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Up against Fred Hoiberg’s small, quick rotation, the ‘Cats need to use size to their advantage while working even more to give Martinelli isolation opportunities. Realistically, facing one of the nation’s best teams, the ‘Cats’ odds will be slim without a masterpiece from their star.
