The win over Kansas was an exciting one for Iowa State men’s basketball, but the Cyclones are already on to the next one.
There was hardly any time to soak in the Saturday, Feb. 14 victory over the ninth-ranked Jayhawks, as there will be a quick turnaround into another marquee matchup.
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Iowa State will host No. 3 Houston on Monday, Feb. 16. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. CT and will be broadcast on ESPN as part of its “Big Monday” showcase.
The Cyclones (22-3, 9-3 Big 12 Conference) enjoyed a resounding 74-56 win over Kansas in a rematch, after dropping the earlier meeting against the Jayhawks on Jan. 13.
Reigning Big 12 regular-season and tournament champion Houston (23-2, 11-1) enters with a six-game winning streak and is currently in first place within the conference standings. The Cougars defeated Kansas State in their previous game on Feb. 14. At one point, they had a 28-4 run to finish the first half and went on to win 78-64.
Here are three things to watch for in Monday’s game:
Houston freshman Kingston Flemings, one of the biggest stock risers
Kingston Flemings certainly wasn’t an unknown coming out of high school.
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The top-ranked recruit from Texas in his class, Flemings entered college as a five-star guard and the No. 16 overall prospect, according to 247 Sports.
However, he wasn’t on any NBA mock drafts before the start of the 2025-26 college basketball campaign, or even in the early parts of the season.
All that has quickly changed over the course of his freshman year.
Flemings has turned plenty of heads with his play this season. The 6-foot-4 guard is averaging 16.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.8 steals per game, while shooting 50.7% overall and 36.5% from deep.
A shifty, speedy guard, Flemings is a weapon in transition, but he also has the quick burst to get past his defender in half-court sets. He is a crafty and smart guard who is calculated when it comes to pulling up in the mid-range or taking shots at the basket. He is a good facilitator and can occasionally take-and-make 3-pointers when left open.
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His best showing came in a 42-point outing in a 90-86 loss at Texas Tech on Jan. 24. He also had six assists, two steals and two turnovers.
His speed and quickness seamlessly translate over to the defensive end. He is a perfect fit in Sampson’s scheme and he has the quick hands and physical tools to wreak havoc on that end of the court.
Houston’s dominance on both sides of the ball
There might not be enough words to describe the continuity and success that Kelvin Sampson has been able to establish at Houston, especially since the start of the decade.
The Cougars were dominant in the tail end of their stay in the American Athletic Conference, and they never missed a beat since coming to the Big 12. They’ve reached at least the Sweet 16 in each of their last six NCAA Tournaments, with two Final Four appearances, including a national runner-up finish last year.
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A large part of that success is attributed to its defensive style of play under Sampson. However, in each of the last six years, the Cougars have exceled on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, they’ve ranked in the top 20 for both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Houston ranks No. 12 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 for defensive efficiency.
Guards Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler are key returners from last year.
Tugler, a 6-foot-8 forward, is a defensive stalwart. The reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year is contributing a tad more on the scoring end, but he remains a hard-working player on the court.
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Sharp, a three-year starter at Houston, has built off of his postseason success last season – which included Big 12 Tournament MVP and NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Most Outstanding Player honors – with his best year yet. He is averaging 16.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game.
Uzan remains a productive starter for the Cougars, but his shooting percentages have dropped since last season. He is averaging 11.2 points and 3.9 assists per game, but he is shooting 38.0% overall and 32.6% from deep.
Aside from Flemings, Chris Cenac Jr. has also carved out a starting role as a freshman. The 6-foot-11 New Orleans native is averaging 9.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Former five-star recruit Isiah Harwell is one of the Cyclones’ go-to players off the bench. He’s still raw, but the Cougars believe in the freshman guard’s upside.
The turnover, rebounding battle
Houston and Iowa State are two defense-first teams that take great pride in their all-out effort and physical style of play. They both try to wear their opponents down, be disruptive, and generate turnovers.
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Both teams have also exceled on the offensive glass this season. The Cyclones and Cougars are in the top 20 nationally for offensive rebounding rate. Iowa State secures 37.3% of offensive rebounding chances, while Houston is right behind at 37.0%. Tugler and Cenac are both strong rebounders for the Cougars. Cenac is tough on the glass on both ends, while Tugler is one of the top offensive rebounders in the country. He has the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the Big 12.
The Cyclones rank No. 5 in defensive efficiency. In their recent win over Kansas, they returned to form on the defensive end by keeping Kansas to a season-low 56 points. They set the tone early with their ability to generate turnovers. Perhaps Hilton Magic played a role, but they were able to pressure the Jayhawks, make them uncomfortable and create scoring opportunities off turnovers.
Iowa State generates turnovers on 22.4% of opponents’ possessions, the eighth-highest rate in the country.
Houston is stingy across the board, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.0% this year. Houston remains one of the most disruptive teams around, with a turnover rate of 22.6%, the fifth-best mark in the country. The Cougars also take great care of the ball, with the second-lowest turnover rate.
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Iowa State basketball vs. Houston prediction
Home-court advantage will help the Cyclones, but they’ll need to execute against a team that prides itself on making opponents uncomfortable. The team that can get defensive stops and create more extra possessions will be in better shape to win this Big Monday marquee matchup. If you like grit and grind, there will be plenty of that when Iowa State-Houston squares off. Prediction: Iowa State 69, Houston 65
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State basketball vs. Houston prediction, 3 things to watch
