Michigan basketball vs Purdue: Three keys and a prediction

The stakes are about as high as they can be for a college basketball game in mid-February.

No. 1 Michigan basketball (24-1, 14-1 Big Ten) travels to No. 7 Purdue (21-4, 11-3) on Tuesday, Feb. 17 (6:30 p.m., Peacock) for a clash between the preseason national title favorite and the current favorite.

Advertisement

A win for the Wolverines would essentially eliminate the Boilermakers from the league race and virtually lock in at least a share of the title for Michigan. A loss, however, and Purdue would be just one game back − with Nebraska and Illinois able move within a game, too, by the end of Wednesday − and make the seasons’ homestretch a lot tighter.

DISTANT REPLAY: What Dusty May remembers from Michigan’s beatdown at Purdue last year

This is the latest in a season Michigan has been ranked No. 1 since 1977, and Purdue’s Mackey Arena is sure to be rocking as it hosts a visit from the nation’s top team for the first time in two decades. So how will it all play out?

Advertisement

Here are three keys that will determine a winner and a prediction for Michigan’s third top-10 matchup of the season.

Rebounding rumble

A game like this is expected to be physical and that will show up on the boards. Michigan is the No. 3 offensive rebounding team in Big Ten play (grabbing 36.9% of its misses) while Purdue is No. 2 on the defensive boards (23.3%). On the flip side, U-M is No. 8 in defensive boards (30.2%) and Purdue is No. 8 in grabbing its own misses (32.2%).

“Our front line has to keep showing up like they did [Saturday vs. Iowa], like they did against Nebraska,” Purdue coach Matt Painter recently told reporters. “They were big time against Nebraska. You’ve got one guy getting 10 offensive rebounds, you’ve got one guy getting 16 defensive rebounds. That pays the bills.”

Advertisement

Michigan has a trio of elite rebounders. Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team at 7.7 per game and has been at his best lately – 11 per game in his past five. Morez Johnson Jr., at 7.2 per game, has been the most consistent, while 7-foot-3 Aday Mara is at seven rebounds per game.

No team has outrebounded U-M during its 10-game winning streak, but Purdue has a fearsome front line. Trey Kaufman-Renn grabs nine a game and Oscar Cluff is at 7.4. Although Daniel Jacobson is averaging a mere 3.9 per game, it seems likely his 7-foot-4 frame will be called upon more frequently in this one.

TOUGH TEST: We’re about to learn how good Michigan basketball really is

Mixing defensive coverages

One of the Wolverines’ strengths is their ability to change form on defense.

Advertisement

Michigan can switch one through four with ease, and in lineups with Johnson at center, that expands to one through five. The Wolverines will utilize drop coverage, hedges and switches on its pick-and-roll defense, and their length and athleticism give them an uncanny ability to recover even when assignments are blown.

But Purdue will be a true test. The Boilermakers rank No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency (128.2), per KenPom, while Michigan is No. 1 in defense efficiency (87.9). The Boilermakers are led by star point guard Braden Smith, who puts up 14.7 points and 8.9 assists a night and has his fingerprints on everything Purdue does.

“He’s dangerous, he has solutions to every, every problem,” Michigan coach Dusty May said. “You just hope maybe our size, strength, speed, athleticism will maybe slow those decisions down a quarter of a second − but we’re not tricking Braden Smith.”

U-M tried to throw “some junk at the wall” last year in the teams’ first meeting, in West Lafayette, in hopes it would confuse them, but instead it was U-M running unfamiliar schemes, exacerbating a blowout. Michigan used a 2-3 zone for a while last season in the Ann Arbor rematch, causing Purdue to miss enough 3-pointers to allow U-M back in the game.

Advertisement

The Wolverines will need to throw a bit of everything at Purdue until it finds what works.

Making shots

THE BIG THREE: How Michigan basketball built nation’s biggest and best frontcourt

After a mostly cold January beyond the arc (29.1% on 3-pointers over nine games), Michigan’s February has been a touch warmer − shooting 40% in 100 attempts over four games in February. That brings U-M up to 35.4% on 3s for the season, good for No. 89. Then again, Purdue is hitting 37.8& from deep, ranking No. 23.

It might come down to Johnson or Lendeborg needing to bang home a couple 3s, but expect the Wolverines to continue to run off-ball screens to get looks for Nimari Burnett, Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney.

Advertisement

For Purdue, it’s all about Smith (41.5%) and Fletcher Loyer (38.8% on nearly seven attempts a night). Watch out for Jack Benter (44.5%) off the bench, as well as C.J. Cox (35.8%), who isn’t afraid to take and make big shots in big spots.

Michigan basketball vs Purdue prediction

This matchup has everything one could want: Elite offense, elite defense, proven coaches and a raucous environment. The difference will be, as it has been so many times this season, Lendeborg. Purdue doesn’t have a wing who can physically keep up with him. Expect to see Johnson, Lendeborg and Mara on the floor at once, and not just in the opening four minutes of each half and expect Lendeborg to feast on the boards. He could finish with 20 points and 10 rebounds. The pick: U-M 80, Purdue 74.

Tony Garcia is the Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs Purdue: Three keys and a prediction