NBA betting: Our favorite bets going into the second half of the season

Which teams will make the playoffs? Who will win MVP? With the NBA All-Star break now in the rearview mirror, we asked Andre Snellings and Eric Moody to reevaluate teams and offer their bets heading into the second half of the season.

Snellings made picks for the Eastern Conference, and Eric Moody did the same for the Western Conference.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

Jump ahead
East: Hawks | Celtics | Hornets |
Cavaliers | Pistons | Heat | Bucks |
Knicks | Magic | 76ers | Raptors
West: Nuggets | Warriors | Rockets | Clippers |
Lakers | Timberwolves | Thunder |
Suns | Trail Blazers | Spurs | Jazz

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks

Jalen Johnson to win Most Improved Player (+220)

Johnson has the second-shortest odds to win this award behind Deni Avdija (-120), both well ahead of Keyonte George (+800) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (10-1). Of the two favorites, Johnson is still plus-money, so he has more reward for, in my opinion, at least an equal chance to win. Avdija’s statistics have plateaued, or in the case of assists, decreased as his point guard teammates have gotten healthy. Johnson’s stats, on the other hand, have been on the rise after the Hawks traded away point guard Trae Young. Johnson is a walking double-double, and if both continue at current trends, Johnson could have the more compelling statistical argument by the end of the season.

Boston Celtics

Win Atlantic Division (+115)

The Celtics are locked in a tight race with the Knicks (-135) to win the Atlantic Division, with the Celtics entering the All-Star break a half-game ahead in the standings. Many expected the Celtics to have a down season in the wake of Jayson Tatum‘s Achilles injury, but Jaylen Brown has played like an MVP candidate and led the team to a roughly similar record to last season. According to BPI, the Celtics have the fourth-lowest strength of schedule remaining (Knicks are 11th), positioning them for a strong finish. And while there is no guarantee that Tatum returns this season, he has begun 5-on-5 scrimmaging with the Celtics’ G-League affiliate, so there is at least long shot potential he could be a late addition to the team down the stretch.

Charlotte Hornets

Make the playoffs (-145)

The Hornets enter the All-Star break as hot as any team in the NBA, winners of 10 of their past 11 games, with recent wins over powers such as the Spurs, the Rockets and Nuggets. The young talent on the team has really come together, with Rookie of the Year candidate Kon Knueppel joining Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges as impact players. They also recently traded for Coby White, giving them even more firepower once he is healthy and worked into the rotation. The Hornets’ winning ways have brought them up to the ninth seed in the East, well within the play-in range, and if they keep winning they could move up further before the season is out with a good chance of winning in the play-in to move into the playoffs.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Win 55+ regular-season games (+230)

The Cavaliers had the best record in the Eastern Conference last season with 64 wins but got off to a slower start this season as they navigated prolonged injury losses to key players. They particularly had difficulty reintegrating point guard Darius Garland to the lineup after his injury and were only 13-13 in games Garland played versus 21-8 in games he did not play. After trading Garland for James Harden, the Cavaliers are 3-0. They have won nine of their past 10 games overall. Evan Mobley is also expected to return from his calf injury after the break, making them even more formidable down the stretch. They would need to finish the season with a record of 21-6 or better to reach the 55-win mark, a challenging but reasonably doable proposition at plus money.

Detroit Pistons

Most regular-season wins (+270)

The Pistons have been the top seed in the Eastern Conference all season, but the general consensus seems to be that they are still a good “upstart” team than the blue-blood contenders. But while the Thunder (-310 for most wins) were by far the best team for the first couple months of the season with a 24-1 record as of Dec. 10, they have really slowed down in recent months to the tune of an 18-12 record since. The Pistons, on the other hand, are 21-8 in that same span and have overtaken the Thunder for the best record in the league. The two teams have similar strengths of record for the remainder of the season, so if recent trends continue, the Pistons have a strong chance to hold their lead for the rest of the season.

Miami Heat

UNDER 43.5 wins (+100)

The Heat entered the break with a 29-27 record and on pace for 42 wins. Their play has trended slightly downward of late, with a 9-11 record in their last 20 games that would be a 37-win pace for a full season. Per BPI, the Heat have played the ninth-easiest strength of schedule in the NBA thus far but have the single most difficult schedule in the NBA for the rest of the way. This all projects to the Heat having more difficulty even maintaining their pre-break pace, and they would need to improve on their pre-break win percentage to notch 44 or more wins.

Milwaukee Bucks

Make the play-in tournament (+500)

There has been a buzz all season that Giannis Antetokounmpo might be traded before the deadline, but the Bucks held on to their superstar. Giannis has been out since late January with a strained calf, and many seemed to assume that he might be shut down so the Bucks could lose enough to get a better draft pick. However, ESPN’s Jamal Collier reported that neither Giannis nor the Bucks have any intention of shutting him down, and in fact he is looking to come back on the shorter end of the 4-6 week timeline he gave after his injury. The Bucks added Cam Thomas from the free agent market and he is proving to be an impact player. The team has won five of their last six games and only trail the Hawks by 1.5 games for the 10th seed and final play-in spot. If Giannis does play the majority of the remainder of the season they have a great chance to make the play-in, and at +500 there is solid juice if they do.

New York Knicks

OVER 52.5 wins (+110)

The Knicks enter the All-Star break with a record of 35-20, so they would need to win 18 of their remaining 27 games (66.7% win rate) to reach 53 wins. The Knicks started the season 19-7 (73.1% win rate), then had a multi-week swoon after winning the NBA Cup, going 6-11 from Dec. 19 through Jan. 19. They have since righted the ship, though, going 10-2 in their past 12 games before the break. Anecdotally, all three NBA Cup winners had losing stretches after winning the Cup, so if we assume the Knicks’ struggles were a short-term fluke, then the team moving forward should be more similar to the one that started the season and entered the break with a combined 20-9 record and won the Cup. If they exit the break playing at anywhere near that level, they have a strong chance to get at least 53 wins, which is solid value at plus money.

Orlando Magic

Win Southeast Division (+100)

The Magic hit the All-Star break with a half-game lead over the Miami Heat and a three-game lead over the Hornets to lead the Southwest Division, a remarkable accomplishment considering they’ve already had to deal with a combined 55 missed games from stars Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. However, the Magic entered the break with no injury designation to any of their main rotation players, will have had the week off for their guys to recover and have a chance to really put together their best ball of the season moving forward.

Philadelphia 76ers

Make the play-in tournament (+105)

The 76ers entered the All-Star break with a 1.5-game lead over the Magic, a two-game lead over the Heat and a 4.5-game lead over the Hornets to hold the sixth and final non-play-in seed in the East. But so much of their outlook depends on the continued health and presence of Joel Embiid. Since Dec. 30, the 76ers are 8-4 in 12 games Embiid has played and 1-5 in six games he has sat. If those trends of Embiid’s availability and the team’s levels with and without him hold, they would be on pace to win about 45 games (-110 odds to win over 45.5 games is another bet worth considering for those more bullish on the 76ers). Embiid missed the last two games going into the break due to continued maintenance for his chronic knee issues, and his availability will always be in question. Per BPI, the 76ers, Heat and Magic all project to finish the season within one game of each other, and if any of the Southeast Division teams overtake the 76ers, Philly would very likely end up in the play-in.

Toronto Raptors

OVER 46.5 wins (-115)

The Raptors entered the All-Star break with a record of 32-23, a 48-win pace. Their performance is trending upward, with a 12-8 record in their past 20 games, which would be a 49-win pace. Per BPI, the Raptors have played the ninth-most-difficult strength of schedule to date, which is more intense than they will face for the rest of the season. The Raptors also are as healthy as they have been all season, with none of their rotation players sporting injury designations, so they appear poised to play better after the break than before when they were already on pace to win more games than this threshold.

Western Conference

play

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Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic to win regular-season MVP (+300)

He averages 28.7 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 10.7 APG while shooting 59.0% from the field. Before missing 16 games with a hyperextended left knee, Jokic was the MVP favorite. To remain eligible, he can afford to miss just one more game. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined by an abdominal strain and the Thunder cooling off from their hot start, Jokic’s statistical edge makes this price appealing.

Golden State Warriors

OVER 43.5 wins (+105)

The Warriors’ outlook changes dramatically after the All-Star break. Stephen Curry is expected back from knee soreness, and Kristaps Porzingis is trending toward his debut, giving Golden State elite floor spacing and a true matchup nightmare at center. Even without Jimmy Butler III, a healthy Curry plus Porzingis adds size, shooting and offensive versatility. If they stabilize defensively and stay healthy, this roster would be well positioned to surpass the listed win total.

Houston Rockets

Finish as the No. 4 seed (+175)

The Rockets have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, though bettors may worry about their inconsistent play and the season-ending injury to Steven Adams. However, the Timberwolves face one of the toughest remaining schedules, which could give Houston the edge in a tightly contested Western Conference race.

LA Clippers

UNDER 41.5 wins (+100)

The Clippers traded away James Harden and Ivica Zubac, leaving Kawhi Leonard to shoulder an unsustainably heavy offensive load. While Leonard has produced this season, his injury history makes that volume risky over a full stretch run. Although LA added Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin, who should return soon, the roster remains in transition and the depth is uncertain. Even with a manageable schedule, relying this heavily on one star in a competitive division makes the under appealing.

Los Angeles Lakers

Make the play-in tournament (+210)

After a 15-4 start, they’ve struggled since and rank 16th in net rating and 23rd in defensive rating. The Timberwolves and Suns profile as stronger, more balanced teams based on advanced metrics. The Lakers rely heavily on clutch wins, which can be a double-edged sword. Even slight regression could push them into the 7-to-10 range in the Western Conference.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Naz Reid (+190) to win Sixth Man of the Year

After capturing the award in 2023-24, Reid could become just the sixth player in league history to win it multiple times. He’s playing some of the best basketball of his career and is someone head coach Chris Finch trusts in clutch minutes because of his versatility and two-way impact. From a statistical standpoint, both Minnesota’s top offensive and defensive lineups feature Reid.

Oklahoma City Thunder

OVER 61.5 wins (-115)

The Thunder will want to lock down the No. 1 seed, especially with the Spurs not far behind in the Western Conference standings. Health will be Oklahoma City’s top priority, particularly with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined by an oblique injury. Still, the roster is deep enough that even if the team is cautious with SGA, Oklahoma City should have no trouble surpassing this win total.

Phoenix Suns

Win Pacific Division (+165)

The Suns’ offseason makeover has exceeded expectations, and they’ve built one of the more balanced rosters in the division. The addition of Dillon Brooks has strengthened their defensive identity, and Phoenix now ranks 10th in defensive rating. They’re neck and neck with the Lakers in the standings, but Los Angeles sits well outside the top 20 defensively. Defense tends to be more sustainable down the stretch, giving the Suns a more stable profile in a tight division race.

Portland Trail Blazers

UNDER 41.5 wins (-140)

The Trail Blazers are trending upward, but their position is more fragile than it appears. Sitting ninth, they’re likely headed for the play-in tournament. While Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan have fueled major improvement, Portland remains a young, developing team. They also face one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league. Given those factors, they could hover near the number but ultimately finish slightly under their win total. -Moody

San Antonio Spurs

Win Western Conference (+850) and NBA Finals (16-1)

The Thunder have been favorites all season, but the Spurs went 4-1 against Oklahoma City. Matchups matter, and San Antonio has shown it can disrupt OKC’s rhythm. The Spurs rank fifth in net rating and feature one of the league’s most versatile players in Victor Wembanyama. At these odds, San Antonio is a legitimate postseason threat.

Utah Jazz

Keyonte George (+800) to win Most Improved Player

George has been one of the few bright spots for a Jazz team enduring another rebuilding season. In his third year, he is posting career highs in points (23.8), rebounds (3.9), assists (6.5), field goal attempts (16.3) and field goal percentage (45.8%). While Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson are putting together strong campaigns, George shouldn’t be overlooked.