The struggling Clemson Tigers must hold serve at home against the red-hot Florida State Seminoles to avoid their season going into a tailspin.
Florida State Seminoles 13-13 (6-7) at Clemson Tigers 20-7 (10-4)
When: Saturday, Feb 21, Noon
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC
TV: CW
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Temperature Check on Clemson
Clemson has lost three games in a row and dropped from 28th in KenPom at the start of the month to 35th. They were projected as a 6-seed and are now more in the 8/9-seed range. If they keep losing they could find themselves on the bubble.
Fortunately for now, they are sill 33rd in the NET rankings. The losses at Wake Forest and at Duke were both quad 1 losses which doesn’t hurt so much. They’re 4-5 vs. quad 1. The home loss to VT that started the losing streak was a quad 2 loss. They’re 6-2 in quad 2 while posting a perfect 10-0 record against quads 3 and 4 combined. Despite FSU being red-hot right now, this is a quad 3 game for the Tigers making a win even more imperative.
The Tigers’ struggles have been driven by poor guard play. Dillon Hunter became a stabilizing force mid-way through last year. His return this season brought much of the same steady leadership and reliable presence. His 3-point shooting had improved and he was a key part of Clemson’s success. Recently we’ve seen a major regression though. He is averaging just 2.5 points per game on 21% shooting over the past six games.
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Jestin Porter, who has 19 more made 3-pointers than anyone else on the team, is just 2-15 from 3 over the last 3 games. Ace Buckner has been great (averaging 11 points over the last 8 games). That’s kept the guard play from being completely terrible, but the two starters must get back to form quickly.
The Red-Hot Florida State Seminoles
If Clemson had played the Seminoles a month ago, this would have been a cheap ACC win much like Boston College, Georgia Tech, or Pittsburgh. FSU was 7-11 (0-5). Since then, over the past 30 days they have gone 6-2 including wins over Miami and Virginia Tech.
There is good news for Clemson though. The losses to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest were in part due to their opponents’ incredible, almost unrealistic hot shooting. VT shot 52.4% from 3 while Wake Forest finished 45.5% from 3 vs. Clemson. There is a lot of luck involved in that, but both are at least decent 3-point shooting squads. Florida State is not. FSU is shooting just 31.7% from 3 on the year. It is up to 34.9% in ACC play, but even with that they’ve only had one game in the past 30 days where they shot 45% or better from deep. Surely the Tigers can’t get bit with insane hot shooting again? Right? It is at least highly improbable here.
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6’4” Senior PG Robert McCray is FSU’s star player — all the more reason Clemson guards need to elevate their play. He is averaging 15.2 ppg and 6.0 apg. He is hot right now too, scoring 27 against Boston College on Tuesday.
FSU’s second-leading scorer is Chauncey Wiggins, the former Clemson player who departed this offseason via the portal. Despite being 6’10”, he still doesn’t rebound much, but his 3.9 per game is one more than last year and his scoring is up from 8.3 ppg to 12.6. His 3P% is surprisingly slightly down this year, it is his 2P% which has jumped by more than 10-percentage points. He is finishing inside the arc rather than being overly soft as was a criticism at Clemson. One of the more frustrating Clemson players in recent Tiger basketball will come to Clemson looking to frustrate Tiger fans once again.
Overall
KenPom gives Clemson a whopping 81% chance to win this game. That is quite generous, but mostly boosted by each team’s play in the first half of the season. I view this as much more of a toss-up. Florida State took Virginia to the wire and beat both VT and Miami on the road. They play with a lot of tempo and have reached the 80-point mark in four of their last five games.
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Clemson hasn’t shot 33% or better from 3 in any of their past 3 games. They need to control the tempo, make open looks, and get just reasonable guard play. If they can pull Florida State into their beautiful slog, low-tempo game, they can get back on track. The Tigers aren’t immensely talented, but they’re the better team and they’re at home. While I’m not nearly as confident as KenPom, I believe the cold shooting ends and they get back on track with a crucial home win over the surging Seminoles. If I am wrong, they’ll have four losses in a row with a visit from Louisville next and a trip to North Carolina looming. That’s collapse territory. This is a must-win game for Clemson and I believe they pull it out.
