BYU picked up a much needed signature win Saturday when they beat Iowa State in Provo. The committee released its top 16 seeds earlier in the day, and Iowa State was the #4 overall seed and the final 1 seed.
Three weeks out from Selection Sunday, BYU’s resume has mostly taken shape with some opportunities ahead to still beef it up.
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Resume Numbers
BYU Record: 20-7
NET: 20
KenPom: 21
WAB (wins above bubble): 19th — The committee made a point over the weekend that this is an important metric in the selection process. It measures the number of wins a team has against its schedule relative to how an average bubble team would fare against that same schedule.
NET SOS: 24
NET OOC SOS: 50
Quad 1: 6-6
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3: 3-0
Quad 4: 5-0
Strengths of BYU’s Resume
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Non-Conference Schedule. BYU’s non-conference slate dragged it down last year. BYU had zero notable wins and its non-conference SOS was sub 300. That is completely flipped this year. BYU has Four Quad 1 non-conference wins and a NET non-conference SOS that ranks 50. The committee likes to see teams challenge themselves in non-league play, and BYU did that. BYU’s four Q1 wins Villanova, Wisconsin, Miami, and Clemson all currently project as tournament teams.
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Quad 1 and 2 Wins. This is a bit relative. If you’re talking about a top 3 or 4 seed, then BYU hasn’t done enough to merit that. But BYU is one of 15 teams with 12 or more combined Q1/Q2 wins. BYU only has one Quad 1A win (more on that later) but five of its six Q1 wins are against projected tournament teams. Iowa State is on the one or two line and is the signature win.
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No bad losses. Oklahoma State has lost five in a row since their win over BYU and has fell from a Quad 1 to a Quad 2 loss. While not ideal, that is BYU’s only loss outside of Quad 1. BYU has zero Q3/Q4 losses, which are in the bad loss category.
Weaknesses of BYU’s Resume
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Lack of Q1A wins. Quad 1A wins are those top-tier Quad 1 wins. A Quad 1A game is considered a game versus a top 15 NET team at home, top 25 team on a neutral floor, and top 40 on the road. BYU is 1-6 in those and Iowa State was the first. As of now, Texas Tech is the final remaining Q1A game. They are 14 in NET and need to stay in the top 15 to remain Quad 1A. The Red Raiders are without JT Toppin now, so it will tougher for them to hold steady.
The Road Ahead
BYU has four remaining regular season games. UCF at home is a Quad two game, and then BYU ends with three Quad 1 games at West Virginia, at Cincinnati, and Texas Tech at home. UCF is a Quad 2 game, but they are a projected tournament team and would be another nice win. Texas Tech is a tourney lock even without Toppin, and Cincinnati has won four in a row (including a decisive road win at Kansas) and are fighting to get on the bubble.
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BYU last year had seven Q1 wins before the Big 12 tournament and got an eighth in the Big 12 tournament. BYU has six right now and can get up nine Q1 wins before heading to Kansas City.
BYU’s first opponent in Kansas City would likely be a Quad 2 game, after which BYU would likely have Quad one opportunities. Getting bounced early in Kansas City wouldn’t be the worst thing. I wouldn’t love to see three-plus consecutive days of BYU’s top players playing heavy minutes.
What Could BYU’s NCAA Tournament Seed Be?
A 6 seed seems like a realistic floor after the Iowa State win. Two or three more wins should ensure that. I see a 4 seed as the ceiling and 5 seed as a more realistic outcome if BYU finishes strong. A 4 seed would probably require winning out (which BYU could do; KenPom favors BYU in their four remaining games) and then take into account what other teams around BYU do. If BYU finished 3-1 and got a win in the Big 12 tournament, I think a 5 seed is possible.
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Due to Sunday play, BYU can only be in the South or West regions. Barring disaster, Arizona is a near lock to be the 1 seed in the West. The South region is much more murky. That will likely be the fourth and final 1 seed. Iowa State, UConn, and Houston are all in play for that final one seed. If I were to choose now, I wouldn’t complain with a 5 seed for BYU in the South region with Iowa State as the 1 seed.
