After the biggest win of the season over Iowa State, BYU stays home when UCF comes to the Marriott Center late Tuesday night.
UCF is approaching lock status for the NCAA Tournament, and a road win over BYU would just about secure that. UCF is coming off a two-point road win at Utah Saturday without leading scorer Riley Kugel. Kugel is listed as questionable versus BYU.
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The game tips off at 9pm MT on ESPN2.
BYU and UCF by the numbers
UCF KenPom: 49
NET ranking: 46
Record: 19-7 (8-6 Big 12)
Best Wins: Texas A&M (A), Kansas (H), Kansas State (A), Colorado (A), Arizona State (H), Texas Tech (H), TCU (H), Utah (A)
Losses: Vanderbilt (H), Oklahoma State (A), Arizona (H), Iowa State (A), Houston (A), Cincinnati (A), West Virginia (H)
AP Ranking: n/a
BYU KenPom: 21
NET Ranking: 19
Record: 20-7 (8-6 Big 12)
AP Ranking: 19
KenPom Prediction: BYU 89, UCF 78 — BYU 84% win probability
Point Spread: BYU -11.5
Point Total: 163.5
UCF Overview
UCF is considered a consensus tournament team. According to Bracket Matrix — which aggregates 121 bracket projections — UCF is in by each bracket projection and projected a 9 seed.
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In Big 12 play, UCF ranks 7th in KenPom offensive efficiency and 12th in defensive efficiency. Two things that jump out about UCF is their ability to hit the three ball and ability to keep turnovers relatively in check. UCF shoots 35% from three in league play (#3 in Big 12) and are sixth in turnover percentage. They have four players average between 12-14 ppg and then a gap to the next player. UCF is bottom half in the Big 12 in offensive rebound percentage, free throw rate, and two-point percentage.
Defensively, UCF has been susceptible this season. They don’t force a ton of turnovers and really struggle defending inside the three point line. UCF is top half in the conference in three-point defense, but opponents shoot a blistering 58% from two (last in Big 12). AJ and Rob could have a lot of success in the paint this game.
UCF has some really nice wins on their resume that show they are clearly capable — they won at Texas A&M and beat Kansas and Texas Tech at home. They are 3-4 on the road in Big 12 play some of those losses have been ugly; their four road losses have come by a combined 18 points.
Players to Watch
UCF leading scorer Riley Kugel is listed as questionable.
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Riley Kugel, Guard — Kugel’s availability will be a main storyline to watch. The 6-foot-5 guard averages 14 points on 38% shooting from three. Kugel only has one 20+ point game in conference play, but he is a consistent double-digit scorer.
Themus Fulks, Point Guard — Fulks is right there with Kugel in scoring, also averaging 14 ppg, and leads the team with 6.7 assists per game. Fulks has the ball in his hands a lot and is either creating for himself or others. He does most of his damage inside the arc and shoots 48% on 11 field goal attempts per game. He averages only 1.4 three-point attempts per game, but does shoot 43% on those.
Jordan Burks, Forward — The 6-foot-9 wing averages 13 points and shoots 39% from distance on nearly 5 attempts per game. Burks will probably get some time matched up on AJ due to his length.
Jamichael Stillwell, Forward — The final piece of UCF’s top four guys, Stillwell averages 12 points and leads UCF in rebounds (7.8) and steals (1.2). At 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds, Stillwell is a physical forward who can create mismatches with his strength in the paint.
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Prediction
UCF is a good team who is capable of pulling an upset here. BYU is coming off its biggest win of the season and is ripe for a letdown if players aren’t locked in. With or without Kugel, UCF has enough options to give BYU’s defense trouble. If Kugel can go, then BYU will need to be locked in defensively. UCF is balanced offensively in their starting five, and BYU has often struggled against teams where they can’t really lock in on just a couple guys. Iowa State is better than UCF, but BYU knew they had to give Momcilovic no space.
I ultimately like BYU. One, I don’t think UCF can slow down BYU enough. UCF is terrible at defending the paint and midrange, so I could see both AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright having big games. This could be a game where AJ scores 35+ points and throws multiple lobs to AJ after breakdowns from UCF’s back line. I also just have a hard time seeing BYU losing this game in Provo, especially with some of UCF’s road struggles.
I’ll pick BYU to win but UCF to keep within striking distance most of the game.
Prediction: BYU 86, UCF 79
