The Big Ten is lost.
Michigan officially locked up at least a share of the conference last night with three games to go, and unless they lose at Illinois, at Iowa, and at home against Michigan State Purdue will have to wait another year for that elusive 27th Big Ten championship that was almost considered a birthright before the year began. In the end, the loss to Michigan was not the biggest blow. It was a road loss at a spiraling Indiana team and two blown late leads against UCLA and Illinois that cost us the league.
The good news is that Purdue’s NCAA Tournament profile is still ridiculously strong. The Boilermakers have been a lock for the field for some time now, and they are closing in on locking down a top 4 seed.
If I had to estimate I would say that three wins in the last four locks up no worse than a two seed. If the Big Ten were to get two one seeds with Michigan and us we’ll need some help, but it is still possible. The computer numbers are that strong. Purdue is currently sixth in the NET and 7th according to KenPom, which is a strong case for a 2 seed.
I would say that right now Michigan, Duke, and Arizona are locks for 1 seeds barring a collapse. The fourth will come down to Illinois, Purdue, Houston, UConn, and Iowa State. Purdue having lost to Illinois and Iowa State at home is a tiebreaker there in my mind, but both teams still have a lot of basketball to play. It is entirely possible Purdue could get to the Big Ten Tournament and play a semifinal against the Illini that would be a play-in for that last 1 seed. I know I would like a do over against the Illini where we actually play some defense this time.
To get there we must win out, but the overall metrics are still very strong. Purdue has an 8-5 record against Tier 1 teams in the NET. The next three games would also count as Tier 1 wins after Northwestern boosted its ranking with a win in Bloomington last night. Wisconsin at 32 is just on the edge of our home finale also falling into that category.
Duke, Michigan, and Arizona stand out because they have 12, 10, and 12 Tier 1 wins, respectively. Purdue’s eight is the fourth most in the country along with Illinois, Kansas, and Florida. NONE of Purdue’s losses even fall on Tier 2 as well. If the Boilers win out they will carry at least 11 Tier 1 wins into Chicago, which would be an incredible number. It also might be enough for a one seed, first round placement in St. Louis, and the Sweet 16 in Atlanta where Arizona gets the West, Duke gets the East, and Michigan gets the Midwest.
In short, the Big Ten is lost, but there is still a lot to play for.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 22-5, 12-4 Big Ten
NET: 6 (Up 3 from last update)
KenPom: 7 (Up 2 from last update)
Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 2
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 11 Nebraska (Away), 16 Texas Tech (Neutral),20 Alabama (Away), 24 Iowa (Home), 24 Iowa (Away), 28 Wisconsin (Away), 39 Auburn (Neutral), 58 USC (Away)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 42 Indiana (Home),48 Washington (Home), 68 Minnesota (Home), 70 Akron (Home), 128 Maryland (Away)
Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 11 Nebraska (Away), 15 Texas Tech (Neutral), 19 Alabama (Away), 27 Iowa (Home), 27 Iowa (Away), 36 Auburn (Neutral), 32 Wisconsin (Away), 63 USC (Away)
Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 40 Indiana (Home),54 Washington (Home), 61 Akron (Home), 61 Minnesota (Home)
Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (6-22, 215 MVC) – NET 282, KenPom 307 – Evansville is, as they say, really bad. Their 88-80 win over Illinois State is their lone victory in the last 10 games and one of just two in conference play. Next up is fringe at large team Belmont tonight in Nashville.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (15-14, 11-7 Horizon) – NET 167, KenPom 158 – Oakland has fallen well off the pace in the Horizon League with four straight losses before beating Milwaukee on Sunday 81-70. They are still tied for second in the conference with Robert Morris because the Horizon League is a 16 seed waiting to happen.
Alabama Crimson Tide (20-7, 6-4 SEC) – NET 19, KenPom 20 – The Tide is on a roll with six straight wins, making the victory Purdue got in Tuscaloosa look really damn good right now. One was a wild 117-115 double OT win over a ranked Arkansas last week. They trail Florida by two games in the SEC.
Akron Zips (23-5, 14-1 MAC) – NET 61, KenPom 70 – The dream of two-bid MACtion is still alive as Akron has now won four in a row overall and an impressive 30 straight at home. Friday night they play Kent State where a win sews up second place behind Miami-Hidroxide. The Redhawks are three wins from an undefeated regular season, and if they get there and lose to Akron in the MAC final we should get a two-bid MAC. Akron probably has to win the conference tourney though to get in.
Memphis Tigers (12-15, 7-7 American) – NET 116, KenPom 114 – Memphis was on the verge of being a solid tier 2 win, but they have now lost four straight. Tomorrow night they see a familiar face in Will Berg when they host Wichita State.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-7, 11-4 Big 12) – NET 15, KenPom 16 – The big news for Texas Tech is, of course, the loss of JT Toppin to a knee injury. This is still a very good team and potential top 4 seed that Purdue absolutely wrecked when they were at full strength. Their Valentine’s Day OT win over Arizona shows just how good they can be. This Saturday they can pull off another upset and help Purdue if they win at home vs. Iowa State.
Eastern Illinois Panthers (11-18, 7-11 Ohio Valley) – NET 322, KenPom 325 – Nothing to see here. Eastern Illinois got a check and had the fun of getting beaten by the No. 1 team in the country. They have just two games left before the OVC tournament in Evansville.
Iowa State Cyclones (224-4, 11-4 Big 12) – NET 8, KenPom 8 – Iowa State vs. Purdue is going to be an interesting case for the committee. Purdue is just ahead of the Cyclones on paper, but I also know their 23 point win in West Lafayette is a factor. The next two games will say a lot, as they host Texas Tech before going to Arizona just two days apart. If they lose both the door is open for Purdue nab a 1 seed.
Marquette Golden Eagles (10-18, 5-12 Big East) – NET 111, KenPom 93 – Marquette dropped a 76-70 decision at home to St. John’s last week, but they have been down bad most of the season. They did win at Georgetown last night 76-60, however. They can help Purdue by beating UConn on March 7th in Milwaukee.
Auburn Tigers (15-13, 6-9 SEC) – NET 36, KenPom 39 – Auburn is going to be the team I need a soap box for this year. They are three games underwater in their conference with three to play. After losing at Oklahoma last night they may not even close the regular season with a winning record. Still, the computers love them thanks to 16 Tier 1 games. It is entirely possible they will be a top 50 team with a losing record, which is rare. As always, you do not deserve an at large bid if you finish with a losing record in your conference and I will die on this hill.
Kent State Golden Flashes (21-7, 12-3 MAC) – NET 144, KenPom 146 – Kent State is probably the only other team in the MAC that could win the autobid over Miami and still deliver two-bid MACtion, but Akron is still better if you’re the Redhawks. The Golden Flashes host Akron on Friday, but lost tot hem by 17 at Akron. Their two Tier 1 games are at Purdue and at Akron.
Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State
Possible NCAA teams (Could win Autobids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland
Bubbly: Auburn
