• What: Michigan State at Purdue
• When: 8 p.m. Thursday
• Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Indiana
• TV/Radio: NBC Sports Network, Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 85 (Purdue broadcast)
Advertisement
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 22-5 overall and 12-4 in the Big Ten, and ranked No. 13 by both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll. The Spartans are No. 12 in the NET rankings and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Purdue is also 22-5 overall, 12-4 in the Big Ten, and ranked No. 8 in both major polls, while being No. 6 in the NET rankings and No. 7 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: Purdue -6.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 759-307 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Purdue — Matt Painter is 518-225 in his 22nd season as a head coach, including 493-220 in 21 seasons with the Boilermakers.
• Series: Purdue leads 76-57 all-time. The Spartans won the only meeting last season, 75-66 in East Lansing.
Advertisement
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.3
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.3
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.6
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 6.0
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.0
Purdue
C (45) Oscar Cluff (6-11) 10.1
PF (4) Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9) 13.3
G (2) Fletcher Loyer (6-5) 13.3
G (0) CJ Cox (6-3) 7.9
PG (3) Braden Smith (6-0) 14.9
• MSU update: The Spartans head into the home stretch of Big Ten play. That begins Thursday night at Purdue, before a date Sunday afternoon at Indiana. Then MSU is home one last time next Thursday against Rutgers, before a Sunday afternoon finale, March 8 at Michigan, which is likely to have the outright Big Ten title wrapped up by then. If MSU hopes to have a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament and be a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, it’ll probably have to win three of those four games, winning at Purdue or at Michigan.
Advertisement
The Spartans are coming off a 66-60 win over Ohio State that didn’t leave them pleased with how they’re playing. MSU is still an elite defense (No. 6 nationally in defensive efficiency) and an elite rebounding team. MSU’s offensive numbers, both efficiency and shooting are much more middle of the road.
• Purdue update: Any question about how the Boilermakers would bounce back after a 91-80 home loss to Michigan was answered when Purdue pounded Indiana at home, 93-64, last Friday. The Boilermakers haven’t played since. Their best wins are by 21 at Iowa, at Nebraska in overtime, and at Wisconsin by 16. Their league losses, other than the loss to Michigan, came in succession, a three-game skid in January against UCLA, Illinois and the first meeting with Indiana. While, like MSU, Purdue has played just beneath top tier of college basketball, the Boilermakers’ profile — No. 2 nationally in offensive efficiency and No. 25 in defense, per Kenpom — isn’t that far off a Final Four pace. Also like MSU, Purdue has a roster with several mainstays — seniors Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer.
• Matchup analysis: This is a matchup of arguably the nation’s top two true point guards. It’s definitely a matchup of college basketball’s two assist leaders, with Jeremy Fears Jr. leading the country at 9.2 per game, ahead of Braden Smith at 8.7, who’s a full assist per game ahead of the next guy. Everything these teams do begins with these two players. Tom Izzo downplayed the head-to-head battle, because of how much switching the Spartans and Boilermakers do defensively. Last season, MSU beat Purdue largely because it collectively bothered Smith, bringing extra bodies at him and forcing him into six turnovers. The player who dominated the Spartans last season was Trey Kaufman-Renn. He’s a tricky matchup for MSU inside, a difficult cover for any of MSU’s big men. He’s averaging about seven points less per game this season (hampered by a hip injury for a while), but is coming off big games against the Hoosiers and Wolverines. Purdue has four players shooting 35% or better from beyond the arc at a decent volume, led by Fletcher Loyer, who’s made 40% of 174 3-point tries. MSU can’t let it be bombs away in Mackey Arena.
Advertisement
• Prediction: I like this matchup for MSU more than I have in some other years, and more than the matchups this season with Illinois and Michigan. The Boilermakers are really good, but with average athleticism for an elite team and, some nights, not as physically imposing on the interior as they should be. That said, while I don’t hate the matchup for the Spartans, winning in Mackey is another matter. MSU hasn’t won their since 2014. It’s getting hard to picture.
• Make it: Purdue 77, MSU 71
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Purdue: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
