Kentucky Basketball ended a three-game slide with a win at South Carolina on Tuesday, but it wasn’t exactly a performance that inspired confidence. That said, a SEC road win is a win, and Tuesday’s likely earned the Wildcats a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Now, it’s time to build some momentum.
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Next up, the Vanderbilt Commodores, who embarrassed Kentucky in Nashville with a final score of 80-55, the third-largest margin of victory by Vanderbilt in series history.
While both teams are in the tournament, this game carries significant weight in the SEC standings and the SEC Tournament, as they sit at 9-6. For Kentucky, this can help them toward a better seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Physicality and Rebounding
“We thought we’d just be physical with them,” Vanderbilt’s Devin McGlockton said after beating Kentucky in January. “That was our main goal, was on the rebounding on the ball. Coach just told us that that was one of their weaknesses, and we could exploit that, and that’s what we did.”
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In that game, Vanderbilt outrebounded Kentucky 43-37, which included 13 offensive rebounds. Not just on the boards, Vandy was the more physical team on defense, and won the battle for 50/50 battles. They essentially “punked” Kentucky. They will look to do that again on Saturday, and the Wildcats know that.
Kentucky has the size advantage, but it comes down to will.
Strong Start
Slow starts have unfortunately become the norm for Kentucky this season, and that has cost them multiple games by either creating a deficit too large to overcome despite heroic efforts to make it a game or taking them out of contention from the tip. The latter was the case for the Wildcats in Memorial Coliseum, just 12 minutes into the game, they trailed 29-12, and the deficit only grew.
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Saturday’s game will be an afternoon tip in Rupp Arena with a ranked opponent, meaning the fanbase is going to bring it. Can Kentucky take advantage and be the first team to punch and be the aggressor from the tip?
Limit Turnovers
When Kentucky has had success this season, it can really be attributed to a couple of areas, one of them being turnovers. Of Kentucky’s 10 losses, Kentucky has had 11 or more turnovers in eight of them. The two exceptions are Michigan State (9) and North Carolina (6).
“If we just manage our turnovers, that’s been a marker of our wins and losses,” Pope said on his weekly call-in show on Wednesday. “If we keep it under 11. So far this season, we’ve only won two games where we’ve been over 11.”
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Straight from the leader, for Kentucky to have their best chance at winning on Saturday, they need to keep turnovers at 11 or fewer.
Players to watch
G Tyler Tanner 6-0, 173 lbs
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37.4% 3P on 4.6 attempts per game
G Duke Miles 6-2, 180 lbs
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Missed six games to injury
F Tyler Nickel 6-7, 220 lbs
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42.9% 3P on 7.6 attempts per game
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Time: 2:00 PM ET on February 28
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Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY
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Announcers: Tom Hart and Dane Bradshaw will call the action.
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Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
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Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds, so please check back later for those. The analytics have this matchup as a coin flip. ESPN (56.4%) and EvanMiya (50.1%) have Kentucky on the winning side of the coin. Meanwhile, KenPom (47%) and BartTorvik (43%) are on the losing side of the coin.
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Predictions: Coinciding with the near 50/50 winning percentages, the score projections have a single-score ball game. Haslametrics is the sole metric picking the Wildcats to win, 77-76. BartTorvik (79-77) and KenPom (78-77) are taking the Commodores. EvanMiya has the game so close, they are projecting a 79-79 tie. With just three regular-season games remaining, Kentucky needs to gain some momentum, and against Vandy at home is its best chance to do that. For that reason, I am going with an 82-78 victory, Kentucky!
Sound off in the comments section on how you think this will go!
And Go Cats!!
