Welcome back to “You’re Nuts,” where our basketball writers pick a debate topic and argue their side until the death, or until Ohio State is mathematically eliminated from the NCAA Tournament…which may have just happened.
In a prime spot to win a road game, a Quad-1 game, and potentially solidify their spot in the NCAA Tournament field, the Buckeyes went to Iowa Wednesday night and played their worst game of the season, seemingly unaware of the monumental stakes of the game. They jumped ahead 14-2, then allowed Iowa to dominate the final 16 minutes of the first half, including a jarring 31-4 run.
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The Buckeyes lost by 17 – their second-largest defeat of the season. More on that wet fart of a game later.
Last week, Connor and Justin commemorated Thad Matta’s 500th career win by talking about their favorite Thad Matta Ohio State moments – less of a debate, and more personal story time. Connor picked Thad Matta’s banner night in 2018, when Ohio State lifted his name into the rafters at the Schottenstein Center 16 months after he and Ohio State parted ways. Justin went with Ohio State’s 2007 second-round NCAA Tournament game against Xavier, AKA the Ron Lewis game.
Back to the (far less joyful) topic at hand – Wednesday night, and what lies ahead. Jake Diebler’s team is running out of opportunities to add quality wins to its resume, and Wednesday night’s game against Iowa was the most manageable one left on the schedule. Instead, Iowa dominated an Ohio State team that was frustrated on defense, confused on offense, and never had a chance after those first four minutes.
Ohio State has three games left: No. 8 Purdue on Sunday at home, at last-place Penn State on March 4, and home against Indiana on March 7. If the Buckeyes want to feel good about their tournament footing before heading to Chicago for the Big Ten Tournament, they need to win all three games. Certainly, after Wednesday’s loss to Iowa, Ohio State fans are wondering if this basketball team can go out and win one more game, let alone three or four more. Is this it?
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This week’s question: Is this it for the Ohio State men’s basketball team?
Connor: No
I think Ohio State does have one final push in them, and I think that they will go into the Big Ten Tournament in two weeks thinking that they still have a real chance to play in the NCAA Tournament.
The Buckeyes’ defense in their three games before Iowa was very good. They held each of Virginia, Wisconsin, and Michigan State under 70 points, under 50% shooting overall, and under 40% from three-point range. Now, with Mobley out all three games and Royal out one game, the offense lagged, but it felt like the Buckeyes were finding a defensive identity and would continue to trend upwards on that side of the floor. Not so much.
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The hope, obviously, is that Wednesday night was just a blip, and they go right back to guarding the way they had been for the past two weeks when Purdue visits this weekend.
How Ohio State played against Iowa really is not a reflection of how they were playing recently, or how they have played all season. Some might say a 30-point loss and a three-point loss are the exact same, but this season, Ohio State really has not been blown out much like it was on Wednesday night.
That 21-point loss to Michigan on February 8 was an outlier – Ohio State has been at least competitive in every other game this year until Wednesday night.
Maybe Ohio State beats Purdue on Sunday afternoon because Matt Painter sees ghosts when he sees Jake Diebler, but after what we all just saw at Carver-Hawkeye, it’s getting tougher and tougher to envision the Buckeyes knocking off the 8th-ranked Boilermakers, even with Diebler being 2-0 against Purdue.
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If Ohio State loses to Purdue but beats Penn State on the road, it’ll set up a senior day game against Indiana that both the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers will desperately need to win. With a win, Ohio State would be 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the Big Ten, and would at least could go to the Big Ten Tournament knowing that one win there gives them a chance, and two or more should make them feel pretty good about their chances.
Personally, I think Ohio State takes two of these last three and at least makes the Big Ten Tournament interesting to watch. Because of that, I don’t think I am ready to close the book on this team just yet.
Justin: Yes
I am going to say yes to this prompt and then cheat a little bit and give a disclaimer. I realize they can still make the tournament, and I still would not be wildly surprised if they did. However, they have had a couple of chances the last two games to put themselves on the right side of the bubble at Michigan State and then at Iowa, and they fell flat both times.
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There are three games left in the regular season and then the Big Ten Tournament. Two home games against Purdue and Indiana, and then one road game against Penn State. Then the Buckeyes will head to Chicago for the conference tournament.
They will have to likely go 2-1 in those three games at worst and then win two in the Big Ten Tournament. Or go 3-0 and win one. Going 3-0 will be hard since Purdue is a very bad matchup for Ohio State, and they are coming off a loss, where Matt Painter historically is very good.
If they lose to Purdue, they will need to go on a run in the conference tournament, where they will very likely see Iowa in the second round. We just saw what happened against them, and even if they bounce back and win against the Hawkeyes, they will see Michigan in the third round.
I just don’t see the path unless they pull off a very unexpected upset of Purdue, Iowa, or Michigan. I will be rooting for it, but I have to see it, and they haven’t shown it.
