Lady Vols basketball is going into the postseason on a six-game losing streak.
Tennessee (16-12) had a disappointing end to the season, finishing 8-8 in the SEC for a second straight year under coach Kim Caldwell. But even with the losing streak – and only winning two of their last 11 games – the Lady Vols are not in danger of missing the first NCAA Tournament in program history.
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Even if Tennessee leaves the SEC Tournament without a win, it isn’t going to miss March Madness. Let’s break it down.
Where Lady Vols stand in key metrics for NCAA Tournament
To start, Tennessee played the hardest schedule in the country. The Lady Vols rank No. 1 in RPI, according to Warren Nolan, and No. 3 in NET strength of schedule.
Strength of schedule matters with tournament selection, and it’s context that will be considered with Tennessee’s record. The Lady Vols won’t get much help from the criteria of competitive in losses, but that’s not enough to knock them out of the field.
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Tennessee is also still top 25 in the NCAA NET rankings at No. 21. If the Lady Vols had started to slide in the NET metric down to the 50s or 60s, that would be cause for concern. And despite their record, they still have five Quad 1 wins. Tennessee is 5-10 in Quad 1, 1-1 in Quad 2, 2-1 in Quad 3 and 8-0 in Quad 4.
Another important metric that was introduced for women’s basketball this season is wins above bubble, or WAB. It was added as a complement to the NET metric, and it’s a results-based metric that does not factor the margin of wins or losses or a team’s efficiency.
WAB measures what a team has accomplished against its schedules vs. what the average bubble team would have accomplished against the same schedule. Tennessee is currently No. 30 in WAB rankings at 3.02, which means UT has a projected 3.02 more wins against its schedule than what the average bubble team would have produced.
Strength of SEC adds more breathing room for Tennessee
At one point this season, the SEC had 10 teams ranked in the top 25. The conference is one of the strongest in the country top to bottom. Only two SEC teams have overall losing records – the Big Ten and Big 12 each have five and the ACC has six.
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The league has been perhaps the strongest it has been in the last few years, and the projected bracketology reflects that.
ESPN’s Charlie Creme projects 11 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament field. The only conference with more projected bids is the Big Ten, which has 12 in Creme’s latest bracketology.
That means Tennessee would have had to finish in the bottom five of the SEC, which did not happen. The Lady Vols have wins over each of the bottom five SEC teams, although they did split the two matchups with Mississippi State.
But finishing in a four-way tie for sixth – and wins over two of the other teams in the tie – is enough breathing room to be safely in the field.
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Where Lady Vols stand in latest bracketology
Creme still has Tennessee as a No. 7 seed in Region 3 Fort Worth, where it would face No. 10 seed Virginia. No. 2 seed Michigan would host and face No. 15 seed LMU. South Carolina is the No. 1 seed of the region.
The latest USA TODAY bracketology from Feb. 25 projects Tennessee as a No. 7 seed in Fort Worth 1, which has UConn as the No. 1 overall seed. The Lady Vols would play No. 10 seed Virginia, hosted by No. 2 seed Iowa, which would play No. 15 seed Idaho.
CBS Sports has Tennessee as a No. 7 seed facing No. 10 seed Nebraska. No. 2 seed Michigan would host and face No. 15 seed Green Bay.
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The Athletic projected Tennessee as a No. 7 seed in Fort Worth 2, facing No. 10 seed North Dakota State. No. 2 seed Vanderbilt would host in the bracketology, but that feels unlikely since the NCAA committee tries to avoid in-conference matchups in the second round.
Lady Vols path in SEC Tournament
Tennessee secured a bye in the SEC Tournament as the No. 6 seed. The Lady Vols won the tiebreaker in sixth place to earn the highest seed in the group.
Tennessee will face the winner of No. 11 seed Alabama (21-9) and No. 14 Missouri (16-15) at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina, on March 5 (8:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network). UT defeated the Crimson Tide 70-59 in Tuscaloosa, and won 98-53 in Knoxville against the Tigers, who are led by former Lady Vols coach and player Kellie Harper.
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If the Lady Vols win, they’ll advance to the quarterfinals where they’ll face No. 3 seed Texas (28-3) on March 6 (8:30 p.m., SEC Network). The Longhorns beat Tennessee 65-63 in Knoxville.
Cora Hall is the University of Tennessee women’s athletics reporter for Knox News. Email: cora.hall@knoxnews.com; X: @corahalll; Bluesky: @corahall.bsky.social. Support strong local journalism and unlock premium perks:knoxnews.com/subscribe
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Why Tennessee women’s basketball won’t miss NCAA Tournament. Here’s why
