Somehow we’re at the end of the season already. This is Xavier’s final home game of the 2025-26 season. What started against the powerful Marist Red Foxes ends here against the Seton Hall Pirates. Roddie Anderson III, Filip Borovićanin, Tre Carroll, Malik Messina-Moore, Ian Sabourin, Isaiah Walker and Michael Wolf will all be honored by the team before the game. (Hopefully, this is the first of two for Borovicanin.)
This is a massive game for both teams. Seton Hall simply cannot afford to lose any more games until maybe a Big East Tournament semi final. They are clinging to the edge of the bubble. For Xavier, the goal is to get out of the deadly 8/9 game that feeds into UConn in the second round. Is playing St. John’s a good thing? No, it would be preferable to get Marist again, but such is life in the Big East.
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Team Fingerprint
Oh, this offense. You may recall that Xavier made Seton Hall look good the first meeting, but they aren’t. The way this team shoots the ball is just tragic. They are worst in the Big East in three point shooting (29%) and two point shooting (46.3%) but improve all the way to eighth in free throw shooting (68.9%). The way they combat this is by being the very best in the Big East in getting their own misses back (36%). That puts the Pirates at 35th in the nation. They hammer the glass.
Shaheen Holloway must wish he could coach offense as well as he coaches defense. Seton Hall is 12th nationally in defensive efficiency. The only thing they don’t do well is defensive rebound. That’s because they extend and pressure anything an opposing offense would want to do. They’re first in the nation in block rate, third in steal rate, sixth in turnover rate, 13th in two point defense… They’re just a violent, aggressive, excellent defense. That occasionally gets them in trouble in sending teams to the line, but they’ve stifled some very good offenses this season.
Players
|
|
Starting matchups |
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|---|---|---|
|
Adam Clark |
Point Guard |
All Wright |
|
Junior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
5’10”. 165 |
Measurements |
6’3″, 190 |
|
12.2/2.9/4.8 |
Game line |
7.6/1.7/1.9 |
|
44/24.3/72.5 |
Shooting line |
47/43/82.5 |
|
|
Clark is the Pirates leading scorer and gets his buckets primarily from two point range. His 5’10” frame limits his ability to get all the way to the rim, so he’s shot 185 two point jumpers this year and makes 44% of them. He’s also fifth in the Big East in assists per game and 3rd in steals, so his value is not limited to his scoring prowess. Last time these two teams met, he had 24/7/4 with 4 steals and was the catalyst in Seton Hall’s comeback. |
|
|
Mike Williams |
Shooting Guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
Junior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’3″, 185 |
Measurements |
6’5″, 200 |
|
7/2.4/1.4 |
Game line |
11.1/3.3/2.2 |
|
37.3/35/74 |
Shooting line |
40/29.6/72.9 |
|
|
Williams has been consistent in his starting role, but his minutes have gone down in conference play due to his .336/.310/.609 shooting line in Big East games. He does chip in a decent amount of steals and is a solid defender without struggling with foul trouble, but he’s been of so little value offensively that it’s been hard for him to maintain his minutes. |
|
|
AJ Staton-McCray |
Small Forward |
Tre Carroll |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’4″, 200 |
Measurements |
6’8″, 235 |
|
12.1/3.2/1.3 |
Game line |
18.6/5.9/2.7 |
|
41.5/33.6/86.4 |
Shooting line |
51/35.4/70.9 |
|
|
Outside of Clark, Staton-McCray is the only Seton Hall player averaging double figures in conference play, although he’s shooting just 38% percent from the floor. He’s good from the line and good when he can get all the way to the rim, but he shoots a lot of jumpers and only makes 33% of them. He also, and stop me if you’ve heard this one before, creates a lot of live ball turnovers on defense. |
|
|
Elijah Fisher |
Power Forward |
Filip Borovicanin |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
6’6″, 220 |
Measurements |
6’9″, 227 |
|
6.7/2.9/0.7 |
Game line |
10.2/7.8/4.2 |
|
43.8/23.7/68.8 |
Shooting line |
42.6/31.9/89.1 |
|
|
Fisher is one of the 6 Seton Hall players averaging between 4.5 and 5.8 ppg in conference play and has carved out a starting spot because of his defensive versatility. He’s 12th in the conference in block rate and 6th in steal rate, which makes him pretty valuable to a team that looks to get easy buckets by turning defense into offense quickly. He doesn’t really do a ton to distinguish himself on offense, having reached double figures just 4 times in 18 Big East contests. |
|
|
Stephon Payne |
Center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
Senior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
6’9″, 235 |
Measurements |
6’10”, 241 |
|
6.2/6.8/0.6 |
Game line |
12.1/4/1.3 |
|
52.6/0/51.9 |
Shooting line |
45.1/44.4/69.8 |
|
|
If you have reached this point and are wondering how Seton Hall can get away with playing 7 guys 6’6″ and under at least 15 minutes a game, Payne is a large part of the answer. He is 8th in the conference with 7.5 rebounds per game despite playing at least 5 minutes fewer per contest than anyone else in the top 10. He also blocks shots at the second best rate in the conference (and we’ll meet #1 in that category shortly), and turned the ball over 3 times in February. He is not a priority at all on offense, having last hit double figures on January 20th, but if you wanted to create a big man to anchor a small ball lineup, he’s the kind of defender you would want. |
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Reserves
The Pirates bench reliably goes 4 deep although backup guard Trey Parker missed their most recent game with an undisclosed injury. TJ Simpkins is a name Xavier fans will remember less than fondly after his 27 point explosion in the first meeting between these teams. He’s the team’s best three point threat, but he comes into this game having made just 7 of his 25 attempts since the first meeting. Unfortunately for him, it has proven impossible for anyone to break out of their shooting slump against this Xavier team.
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6’10” man mountain Najai Hines is coming into this game riding high off of back to back double doubles against Georgetown and UConn. He plays a little under 17 minutes a game and leads the conference in blocks and ranks 15th in rebounds. He also takes the Jovan Milicevic approach to load management by fouling all the time, but is undeniably effective in the low post when he’s out there. Josh Rivera is a 6’6” wing who gets on the offensive glass pretty well and joins Hines as the only players in the roster with an EFG% over 50 in conference play, but he really doesn’t assert himself on offense and also fouls at a rate that keeps him from embedding himself further into the rotation.
Three Questions
– Will we get another season of Filip Borovicanin? The fact he is taking part in the festivities tonight doesn’t augur well for the big man coming back next year. After a couple games of a dip in form, Borovicanin was excellent against Georgetown and supplied the shot that killed them off. If Xavier is going on a miracle run, they’ll need him at his best.
– Is Tre Carroll capable of taking this game over? Tre is a little hard to read on the court at times. He seems almost frustrated to the point you’d think he’s unhappy, but he radiates joy online and in interviews. Against Georgetown there was no question: he was frustrated. Then, he scored 12 straight, indicated he needed a sub, and left his teammates a couple minutes to keep his run going. Tre shot the ball well against the Pirates the first time, but that defense forced him into six turnovers. When the wheels started to come off, he couldn’t stop it. Is this just a matchup that preys on his weakness or can he steady X when they need it?
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– Can Xavier get some rebounds? Seton Hall got 48% of their misses back in the first game. That’s both incredible and almost always fatal. Xavier isn’t a good defensive rebounding team, but they can’t be that bad and have any chance to win this game. They’ll need to at least fight the Pirates to something more closely resembling a draw to have any chance here.
Three Keys
– Keep Roddie hot: The grad senior is on a heater right now. He’s not generally a good shooter of the ball, but in the last two games he’s 14-21 inside the arc and 4-8 from deep. That, combined with the incessant pressure he puts on a defense, make him an incredible weapon off the bench. In this stretch Roddie is using the ball at nearly a 30% rate.
– Chuck it from the cheap seats: Seton Hall does allow a lot of three pointers. Xavier shoots a middling amount, but shoots them reasonably well. The Pirates aren’t going to allow much easy, so you might as well tee it high and let it fly.
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– Send the fans home happy: This has been a trying year, but Xavier Nation has, mostly, been positive and been behind this team. These guys have been a blast to watch this season even as they create their own issues too much of the time. Eliminating Seton Hall and sending the seniors off in style would be a great way to reward the Cintas faithful.
