Marquette Golden Eagles (10-19, 5-13 Big East) at Providence Friars (14-15, 7-11 Big East)
Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Time: 6pm Central
Location: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, Rhode Island
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Nigel James, 16.2 ppg
Rebounds: Ben Gold, 5.7 rpg
Assists: Nigel James, 4.9 apg
Providence Stats Leaders
Points: Jaylin Sellers, 18.0 ppg
Rebounds: Oswin Erhunmwunse, 8.5 rpg
Assists: Jason Edwards & Stefan Vaaks, 3.2 apg
Providence Injury Notes: Freshman forward Stefan Vaaks has missed the last two games due to illness, while senior guard Corey Floyd has missed the last four games due to a hamstring injury. Senior guard Jason Edwards missed the first game against Marquette this season, but has been in the lineup for the past three Friars games, including starting and playing 36 minutes against Creighton on Saturday. He has been listed as questionable for each of PC’s last five games. Senior forward Duncan Powell has now completed the last of his three game suspension for fighting against St. John’s and will be eligible to play in this game.
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #100
Providence: #63
Game Projection: Providence has a 74% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 86-79
Last Time Out: I’m just going to reprint what I wrote in the recap:
Down 4 with less than 20 seconds left, Nigel James charges in and shoots a pull up 10 footer with 12 seconds left. This should, under nearly all circumstances, end the game. MU didn’t even take the shot they needed to tie the game, and didn’t even get a layup, which you could at least understand taking an easy bucket. Rebound PC, they throw it into the front court, and SOMEHOW, Vaaks loses it. SOMEHOW, Damarius Owens throws it, half no-look, mostly off-balance, to Royce Parham. He gets to James on the right wing, and Sellers — of course it’s Sellers, history rhymes — grabs James’ hand after he lets the shot go. Miss, but foul, and after Kim English tries to ice him between free throw #2 and #3, the game is tied at 94. PC’s prayer fails, and we go to overtime. Inexplicably, honestly, because Providence has just hung a 50-40 half on the Golden Eagles.
Honestly, I think I blacked out for most of overtime.
I’m looking at the PBP and my comments in the Game Thread, and I have no idea about any of this.
I remember Chase Ross picking up his last three fouls of the game in relatively short order with the last two coming on either side of yet another cartoonishly short floater in the lane from the Texan. I think I was aware that after Vaaks scored to start OT, neither team was up two again until the final minute. I remember Nigel James doing a directional pivot while keeping his dribble and going right past Vaaks for a casual layup to tie the game at 104.
I remember Marquette forcing the ball out of Corey Floyd’s hands and Ben Gold reaching out for the ball. I will go to my grave not being 100% sure that it actually made sense to whistle Floyd for a foul as Gold went to the ground to get the ball. But that is what they called with four seconds left. Gold walked to the other end, made the first of his two free throws, PC inbounded after a timeout, Vaaks got a prayer into the air, nothing doing, and SOMEHOW, and I am really not 100% sure how, Marquette wins.
Since Last We Met: In the immediate aftermath, Providence’s season started to collapse. Falling in overtime to the Golden Eagles ended up being the first of four straight losses for the Friars, all by increasingly larger margins. That means they had lost seven of their last eight and nine of 11 going back to the start of Big East play. Since an 87-73 road loss to Villanova, the Friars have begun a quest to go out on a high note even if this season is so far departed from some preseason projections that thought this could be an NCAA tournament team. They have won five of their last seven games, including a season sweep of the DePaul team that just pantsed Marquette at Fiserv Forum. The two losses in there are at Seton Hall by seven and at home to St. John’s by 10, neither of which is a particularly devastating result. They have won their last three games, including surviving 79-76 at Creighton last Saturday, in a game where the Bluejays missed two three-pointers in the final five seconds that could have forced overtime.
Tempo Free Fun: Marquette should have lost the home game against Providence.
They were up 10 at the half and wasted that lead. They were down three and didn’t have the ball with five seconds left in regulation. They were tied and didn’t have the ball with 11 seconds left in the overtime period. They gave up 1.277 points per possession to the Friars, a number that was at the time MU’s second worst defensive performance of the season and is currently the third worst after giving up 1.331 to Xavier on Valentine’s Day. The Friars shot 57% inside the three-point arc in that game and 41% outside of it. The Friars grabbed 45% of their rare misses for a second chance.
If that Marquette defensive effort shows up again in Rhode Island, Marquette will lose. Providence is a legitimately great offense this season, ranking #25 in efficiency nationally and #2 in the Big East during league play according to KenPom.com.
If the Marquette offensive effort from Sunday’s game against DePaul — 0.806 points per possession which is a new season low, 18% on three-pointers, a turnover on one-fifth of the possessions — shows up in Rhode Island, Marquette will lose. The Friars are bad on the defensive end of the floor, ranking #194 nationally and #10 in league play.
One final thing: It would appear that Providence is going to get to decide who finishes last in the Big East this season. Marquette and Georgetown are tied for 10th and 11th in the league at 5-13. Analytically, Georgetown is probably going to lose to St. John’s and Marquette is probably going to lose to UConn. Both the Hoyas and the Golden Eagles play Providence in their other game this week, with Georgetown getting to host the Friars in the regular season finale on Saturday. If the Friars go 1-1, the team they beat is probably finishing alone in last with 15 losses this season.
Of course, mathematically, this does mean that the Friars are capable of finishing tied with Georgetown and Marquette with 13 losses if they go 0-2 and their opponents pull off two upsets. Weirder things have happened. Funnier things? Maybe not.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 4-6 with losses in four of the last five games.
Providence Last 10 Games: 5-5 with wins in their last three games and five of their last seven.
All Time Series: Marquette leads, 27-15.
Current Streak: Marquette has extended their winning streak against Providence to five straight after beating the Friars in overtime earlier this season.
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