UFC 326 is Saturday in Las Vegas with a solid card that boasts plenty of notable names.
Let’s dive into a few spots that represent actionable value.
Max Holloway (-230) vs. Charles Oliveira (+175)
(Fightnomics)
The amount of records held by the fighters in this BMF title matchup would take up an hour of speed reading, and each will likely still be holding UFC records for generations to come. It’s rare for a fighter to earn his way to the big show at the age of just 20, as Holloway and Oliveira each did, and even more rare to consistently compete at such a high level for so long.
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Oliveira is arguably the fiercest choke artist ever to enter the Octagon, while Holloway is the most prolific striker in UFC history. And that is this matchup in a nutshell. On the feet both men are accurate, but Oliveira is more aggressive moving forward and tends to eat more shots. Against a balanced and gifted technician like Holloway, punches absorbed will pile up for Oliveira. And after taking six knockdowns over his long career, the Brazilian might not last long taking shots in pursuit.
In transition, Oliveira’s takedown success rate is average, usually requiring lots of attempts to get a fight down. Holloway’s takedown defense is strong, normally enough to keep fights standing, which is how he spends over 90% of all Octagon time off the mat. A key is avoiding Oliveira in the clinch, where he can find positions in small moments, transitioning to fight-ending control. Holloway, in defense of his style, spends little time in the clinch and even less on the ground.
Over five rounds, Holloway’s striking should be too much given Oliveira’s vulnerability and cumulative damage. The price factors in the risk of Oliveira closing the distance and keeps this affordable enough to back Holloway.
Best bets: Holloway to win. Prop Holloway by TKO. Fight DNGTD
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Su Mudaerji (-265) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+215)
(Fightnomics)
You rarely see a matchup between fighters with a 10-inch difference in wingspan, but if the measurements are to be believed, Mudaerji will have almost that advantage over Aguilar. And in addition to the enormous size difference, Mudaerji also has better and more proven striking metrics. Expect him to land at will from long range while they remain standing.
Outgunned on the feet, Aguilar will likely try to get this to the mat. But between his below average takedown accuracy, and Mudaerji’s high takedown defense and range advantage, that pursuit could be an uphill battle.
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Best bet: Su Mudarji for the win
Caio Borralho (-290) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+225)
(Fightnomics)
Two middleweights who might be a couple wins from a title shot, but first, one of them needs to rebound from his first UFC loss. De Ridder is far more likely to initiate takedowns. Only two fighters have taken Borralho to the mat, and in both fights it was Borralho who spent more total time in control. So De Ridder getting this down isn’t a done deal, and even if he does, it might not be a fight-ending scenario.
On the feet, Borralho uses a slow but deliberate pace, with much better accuracy and avoidance than De Ridder. Here’s where he can score points and edge the rounds if they don’t spend too long on the mat.
Best bet: Borralho to win
