Is this Ferrari’s year? It’s something Formula 1 fans have been asking annually for nearly two decades now — to the point that, in recent years, it has become more of a meme than a genuine question.
The cycle is familiar: uncontrollable optimism ramps up ahead of the season only for on-track disappointments — sometimes early in the year, sometimes later — to shatter the illusion.
Despite being the most decorated team in F1 history (with 15 drivers’ titles and 16 constructors’ titles), it’s a loop modern-day Ferrari seems unable to break out of. And as each season passes without adding a new championship trophy (Ferrari’s last constructors’ title came in 2008 and its last drivers’ title in 2007), the lustre of its past achievements seems to tarnish.
Near misses have come and gone in the last 15 years. Fernando Alonso came close in 2010 and 2012; Sebastian Vettel arguably had a car capable in 2017 and 2018; and Ferrari was narrowly beaten to the constructors’ title by McLaren in 2024. But for all of the Italian team’s strengths, which currently include a star driver line-up of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, a key ingredient always seems to be missing.
No amount of driver signings, management reshuffles or support from Ferrari’s loyal tifosi have been able to recapture the team’s glory years since 2008, yet here we are again, at the dawn of a new era of F1, asking once more if this is Ferrari’s year.
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– Does winning first race of F1’s new era guarantee title?
– The craziest F1 start ever? Why Melbourne might see chaos from the off
A new hope
Despite the lengthy title drought, hope springs eternal in Maranello and there is no better opportunity to vault to the front of the grid than under a new set of regulations.
The early signs from preseason testing are that Ferrari’s SF-26 is, at the very least, a solid starting point. Leclerc topped the timesheets of the Bahrain test, the new power unit ran incredibly reliably, Ferrari’s engineers introduced innovative aerodynamic solutions, and the car appears to have a clear advantage versus its competitors when it comes to race starts.
But based on the disappointments of seasons past, team principal Fred Vasseur is still preaching a message of calmness to his workforce. He knows only too well the folly of celebrating false dawns, and the Frenchman has prioritised the car’s development over the entire season ahead of ensuring it is on pole position for the first race in Australia.
The approach comes after a disastrous 2025 season in which Ferrari discovered as early as the second round that it was unable to run its car at the optimum ride height without inducing illegal levels of plank wear. An attempt to find a fix was put in motion but as Vasseur said at the end of the season, his team had to “pay the bill in the first third of the season” to remedy the issue while its rivals continued unabated on their own more prosperous development paths. It became clear after just a handful of races that the gap to pacesetters McLaren would ultimately become unassailable. That led Vasseur to take a critical decision in early April last year.
If Ferrari kept chipping away at developments under the 2025 regulations it would only ever result in marginal gains in a losing battle, but that very same resource had the potential to unlock significant chunks of performance for the 2026 project. As a result, Vasseur diverted the full focus of Ferrari’s design office to long-term gains with the SF-26, even if it came at the expense of short-term frustration trackside in 2025.
“This call to stop [2025 development] after five or six races was a tough one,” Vasseur said. “I’m still convinced that it was the good one, but if I underestimate something, at this stage, it was the psychological effect on every single team member, including drivers.
“Because for sure it was for good reasons, it was to be focused on ’26, to try to get the best from this [upcoming] season, but on the other hand, you are into the season and you still have 20 races to go, and you know that somehow you won’t bring any more development. It’s difficult, and probably I underestimated this for them, but also for me personally.”
Italian innovation
Vasseur’s April decision finally bore visible fruit during preseason testing last month. After targeting reliability at the opening test in Barcelona, a series of innovative solutions appeared on the Ferrari in Bahrain, especially around the rear of the car. Details on the car’s diffuser as well as additional bodywork sprouting from its rear crash structure garnered the attention of tech journalists in the second week of the test, before Ferrari diverted the paddock’s attention with its headline-grabbing party trick on the penultimate morning.
Taking a novel approach to F1’s new active aero regulations, which allow for movable upper elements on the front and rear wings to reduce drag, Ferrari trialled a rear wing that rotates the upper flap completely upside down when activated. Dubbed the “Macarena” wing by a chuckling Vasseur during an interview with French TV, it stands out among the various interpretations of the new active aero regulations — most of which operate in the same way as last year’s DRS device.
Although the Macarena wing only featured on the car for a handful of laps before Ferrari reverted to its more conventional design, the experimentation speaks to the time and resource Maranello’s aerodynamicists have had to explore innovative ideas since last April. What, if any, advantage the Macarena wing offers — and whether Ferrari even uses it at the opening round in Australia — remains to be seen.
Fast starters
Rear wing trickery aside, Ferrari appears to hold a more concrete advantage over its rivals when it comes to race starts. During simulations at the end of test sessions in Bahrain, the Ferrari was making lightning getaways from the grid while cars with rival power units struggled to perfect their launches.
An unintended consequence of the overhaul in F1’s power unit regulations this year has made it significantly more difficult to make a clean start when the lights go out. The removal of the MGU-H from the hybrid system means electrical energy can no longer be used to prepare the engine’s turbo for a standing start and has resulted in the less elegant approach of holding the throttle open for 10 seconds to spool the turbo. The noisy procedure has proved tricky to master for the majority of the grid unless, it seems, the car is powered by a Ferrari engine.
The leading theory is that Ferrari’s engineers were aware of potential pitfalls around race starts and opted for a smaller turbocharger that requires less revving to reach its optimum rpm for a race start. For rival drivers such as George Russell, whose Mercedes lined up 10 places ahead of Hamilton for one of the practice starts in Bahrain but still trailed the Ferrari into Turn 1, the advantage could be a game changer early in the season.
“To win a race, you’ve also got to get off the line quite well,” Russell said. “And I think the two starts I’ve made this week [in testing] were worse than my worst ever start in Formula 1.
“And, Lewis, down in P11, got into P1. So, at this stage, I don’t think it matters how quick you are [in qualifying].
“I think what’s going to trip you up, it’s always going to be that tallest hurdle. And that’s what we’re trying to get our heads around right now, and we’re stumbling on some at the moment.”
It should be said, however, that rival teams will likely iron out the issues with their own starts as the season progresses. It also remains to be seen if a smaller turbocharger, which Ferrari also used under the last set of regulations, comes with inherent disadvantages at more power-sensitive circuits and those at higher altitudes.
Should Ferrari fans start celebrating?
Taking a step back from the Bahrain tests, it’s worth remembering that recent history is littered with seasons in which Ferrari made a strong start but failed to mount a meaningful title challenge.
F1’s last major regulation change in 2022 saw Leclerc start the season with two race victories and a second-place finish in the first three grand prix. Such was his form at the start of the season that by the time he left the third round in Australia, he held a 46-point lead over eventual champion Max Verstappen and was already being celebrated as a runaway title favourite.
As will likely be the case under this year’s regulations, the competitive order changed quickly in 2022 and as Red Bull shaved weight off Verstappen’s car he romped to 14 more victories after Australia. Meanwhile, Ferrari found itself stuck in a developmental cul-de-sac by the midway point of the season that only resulted in one further race win for Leclerc and a 146-point gap to Verstappen by the end of the year. With that in mind, it’s worth applying the brakes to any suggestion Ferrari is best placed to win this year’s title — even if it emerges victorious at the first two races in Australia and China.
But will that dose of realism stop us asking if this is finally Ferrari’s year? Not a chance.
