Tom Aspinall is siding with the betting underdog in the UFC 326 main event.
Max Holloway (27-8 MMA, 23-8 UFC) attempts to defend his BMF title in a rematch against Charles Oliveira (36-11 MMA, 23-11 UFC) on Saturday (Paramount+, CBS) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
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Aspinall thinks the UFC’s all-time leader in submission wins will be too much for Holloway on the ground.
“I think it’s a good, evenly matched fight,” Aspinall said on his YouTube channel. “I think that Holloway’s a little bit of a better striker. That being said, Oliveira’s striking has improved a lot, and something I think he’s done is his mentality has improved a lot over the years.
“I think now he’s much more willing to exchange. The thing is, Oliveira is much more dangerous on the ground. I think this fight will end up in a couple of grappling exchanges, and I think Oliveira will win the grappling exchanges. In my opinion, I think right now, Oliveira is going to win this one.”
The UFC heavyweight champion went on to break down Holloway’s keys to victory.
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“The only way that Holloway can win is the way he wins most his fights which is that pressure, volume, his fitness is unbelievable, and just staying at the right range,” Aspinall said. “Both guys are really tall for lightweights, but I think if he stays at the right range, keeps him at the end of his punches, doesn’t overstep which he doesn’t really do anyway, I think there is a way for Holloway to win on points or maybe stop him with strikes later in the fight.”
However, like many of his fights have gone, Aspinall sees Oliveira weathering an early storm then submitting Holloway in Round 3.
“I think Oliveira takes this one,” Aspinall said. “Although we don’t see Max on the ground very often, I think he’ll get a hold of him, he’ll drag him down, and I think he’s going to submit him.”
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: How Tom Aspinall sees Charles Oliveira beating Max Holloway at UFC 326
