No. 1 Duke vs. UNC predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for March 6

The ACC regular season concludes with the renewal of one of the great rivalries in college basketball. The 266th installment of the storied Tobacco Road rivalry between No. 1 Duke (28-2, 16-1) and No. 17 North Carolina (24-6, 12-5) is tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

A little of the shine has come off this matchup following the news that Carolina’s phenomenal freshman, Caleb Wilson, will miss this game and in fact, the rest of the season and the NCAA Tournament with a broken thumb.

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This rematch comes just weeks after the Tar Heels rallied from 13 down in the second half to stun the Blue Devils 71-68 in Chapel Hill. UNC won the game on a last-second three-pointer from senior Seth Trimble. Since that loss on February 7, though, Duke has been dominant, winning seven straight games and securing the outright ACC regular-season title. Make no mistake, Saturday night means far more to Cameron Boozer and the Blue Devils than any of those seven or really any of the previous 30 games Duke has played this season.

Since their loss to Carolina, Jon Scheyer’s crew has not just won each of the seven games they have played. They have dismantled nearly everyone they have played, winning the seven by an average of 25.7 points. The foundation of their success lies in their defense. The Blue Devils own the nation’s best adjusted defensive efficiency. Their offense ranks a robust No. 3 in offensive efficiency.

Carolina’s efficiency at both ends does not compare. The Heels are 52^nd in defensive efficiency and 53^rd in offensive efficiency.

Duke has a record of 14-2 in Q1 games and is 5-0 in Q2. North Carolina is 6-6 in Q1 and 5-0 in Quad 2 games. The Blue Devils are ranked No. 1 in KenPom and No. 1 in the NET. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 29 in KenPom and 24^th in the NET.

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Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch Live: North Carolina at Duke

• Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026

• Site: Cameron Indoor Stadium

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Game Odds: North Carolina at Duke

The latest odds as of Saturday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: UNC Tar Heels (+1200), Duke Blue Devils (-2400)

This game opened Duke -16.5 with the Total set at 146.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!

Expected Starting Lineups: UNC at Duke

North Carolina Tar Heels

Duke Blue Devils

Injury Report: UNC at Duke

North Carolina Tar Heels

• Caleb Wilson (thumb) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game

• James Brown (foot) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game

• Ivan Matlekovic (hand) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game

Duke Blue Devils

• Patrick Ngongba II (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game

• Ifeanyi Ufochukwu (undisclosed) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game

• Sebastian Wilkins (redshirt) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: UNC at Duke

• North Carolina is 4-5 on the road this season

• Duke is 14-0 at home this season

• UNC is 17-13 ATS overall this season / 4-5 ATS on the road

• Duke is 18-12 ATS overall this season / 7-7 ATS at home

• The OVER has cashed in 10 of Duke’s 30 games this season (10-20)

• The OVER has cashed in 13 of North Carolina’s 30 games this season (13-17)

• UNC is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against Duke (5-5 on the Moneyline)

• Cameron Boozer leads the Blue Devils in scoring (22.6), rebounding (10.0), and assists (4.0) per game

• Seth Trimble has averaged just 1.8 assists over his last 8 games

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday’s game between North Carolina and Duke:

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline

• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Duke -17.5

• Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 146.5

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

• Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)