No. 3 and No. 21. The preseason AP Poll rankings for UCLA and Iowa, respectively.
Now they are No. 2 and No. 9, with the Bruins having a strong case to be No. 1 and the Hawkeyes likely to move up at least two spots in the final AP Poll. The teams will meet in the Big Ten Tournament championship game Sunday afternoon (2:15 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+).
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One team was expected to be here, starting the season ranked seven spots above the second-highest Big Ten team and having been the only team in the conference that was considered a national championship contender. The other was left out of the Big Ten’s top 5 teams by the coaches and media.
But both have exceeded expectations.
UCLA has scripted dominant win after dominant win over Quad 1 opponents. They lead the nation with 17 Quad 1 wins, four ahead of Texas’ 13, and yet still manage to ranked No. 5 in the nation with an average scoring margin of 28. Their only loss was to the No. 4 Longhorns.
With their win over No. 11 Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, they set a program record with 24-straight wins and reached 30 wins on the season, including a 20-0 mark against conference opponents.
The Hawkeyes have woven a more obvious tale of defying prognostications.
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Last year was their first without one of the greatest college players of all time in Caitlin Clark and the program’s winningest head coach in Lisa Bluder. A longtime associate head coach under Bluder, Jan Jensen led them to a 23-11 (10-8 Big Ten) record and a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they were eliminated in the second round.
But with now-sophomore Ava Heiden a year older and with the addition of Georgia Tech transfer Chazadi “Chit-Chat” Wright, Iowa has proven everyone wrong in Jensen’s second year.
They went 15-3 in conference play to earn the No. 2-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and are clearly locked in at the No. 2-line for the Big Dance, rising from as low as a projected No. 7-seed. Their loss to then-No. 10 Iowa State on Dec. 10 now seems like a questionable loss, but their other two losses to lesser teams can be partially attributed to them going through an adjustment period after losing a key piece in senior Taylor McCabe to a season-ending ACL tear. They are 9-5 against Quad 1 opponents and undefeated otherwise, and are currently on an eight-game win streak highlighted by holding the No. 8 offense in the country in Michigan to under 50 points in 62-44 and 59-42 wins.
UCLA is aiming for back-to-back Big Ten Tournament titles, as well as the No. 1 overall seed in the Big Dance, with their nine more Quad 1 wins than current No. 1 UConn giving them a credible case. They will be big favorites on Sunday afternoon, having had little trouble with most of the Big Ten, including defeating Iowa 88-65 on Feb. 1.
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The Hawkeyes, who won the previous three Big Ten tournaments before last year, are aiming to spoil the Bruins’ party and gain major momentum and confidence entering the NCAA Tournament. A victory would legitimize their hope that they can finally capture a national championship after coming achingly close with back-to-back title game defeats in 2023 and 2024. The latter loss was particularly hard to swallow, considering then-senior Clark seemed destined to get the job done.
Will the defenses keep dominating in the Big Ten final?
In Saturday’s semifinal, the Bruins held the Buckeyes to their lowest-scoring first half of the season (21 points) before winning 72-62.
Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year (and Player of the Year) Lauren Betts, who is 6-foot-7, blocked a shot by Ohio State scoring superstar Jaloni Cambridge early on, and Cambridge was then spooked into passing up on shots she usually takes en route to just two first-half points. She would finish with 12, 10.8 below her season average. Chance Gray led OSU with 23 and Elsa Lemmilä had 10, but the rest of the Buckeyes combined for just 17. UCLA held Ohio State to 37 percent shooting from the field, including just 28 percent in the first half.
The Hawkeyes one-upped the Bruins’ defensive performance; they were simply masterful in holding Michigan to 42 points in their semifinal.
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They limited the Wolverines to 27 percent shooting from the field, including 19 percent from 3. Olivia Olson averages 19.2 points per game on the season and was held to just 10 points on 5-for-15 from the floor and 0-for-4 from beyond the arc. Olson’s fellow super-sophomore Syla Swords was also held in check with nine points, 5.5 below her average. Mila Holloway was coming off a 10-assist performance, yet was forced into seven turnovers compared to just two helpers. Her 3-for-13 effort from the field and 1-for-5 effort from 3 were well below her season-long clips.
Before the game, Jensen expressed that she didn’t expect to hold Michigan way below their season average of 85 again. She said all she wanted was to hold them to one below what her team compiled.
What Iowa went on to do is beyond impressive, and almost beyond comprehension.
However, the Hawkeyes have not been a dominant defensive team all season long, allowing 65 points per contest entering Saturday. UCLA has been better, allowing 57.2—good for No. 26 in the nation. We’ll see if Iowa can bottle whatever has worked against Michigan and unleash it on the Bruins on Sunday.
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Both UCLA and Iowa are dangerous on offense, inside and out
UCLA can beat you with Betts, a traditional center and elite inside scorer whose field goal percentage of 56.3 is No. 23 in the country. There’s a reason she’s a projected WNBA lottery pick. Her mid-range game has also been on point this year and was on display Saturday.
The Bruins can then throw at you arguably the best four-guard attack in the nation: Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez, Gianna Kneepkens and Charlisse Leger-Walker. It’s been well documented how Kneepkens and Leger-Walker were even bigger stars elsewhere (Utah and Washington State) and have sacrificed for the betterment of this loaded Bruins team. Meanwhile, Rice and Jaquez have spent their whole careers in Westwood and have lived up to their No. 2 and No. 19 respective rankings in the 2022 SportsCenter NEXT 100.
All four guards shoot over 35 percent from beyond the arc, with Kneepkens being the top sniper and knocking down a team-high three triples on Saturday. All four can also score in a variety of ways. Jaquez in particular loves getting out in transition for easy layups, while Leger-Walker and Rice do most of the distributing.
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Add to those five starters 6-foot-4 forward Angela Dugalić, who provides a presence in the paint and also shoots over 35 percent from deep, and you see why UCLA is so dangerous offensively.
Iowa counters with the Big 3 of Heiden (17.5 points per game), Hannah Stuelke (13.8) and Wright (12.4).
While so many teams will roll out four guards these days, Iowa starts two bigs in Heiden and Stuelke. Their high-low passing is a thing of beauty and they both have excellent post moves and inside touch as well. Stuelke would easily score a lot more points if she wasn’t on a team with Heiden. After going scoreless in the first half Saturday, she came alive with 13 second-half points to help the Hawkeyes pull away.
Wright went 3-for-4 from 3 on Saturday, continuing her red-hot season from downtown. She has 66 makes at 47.5 percent! Her efficiency was No. 4 in the nation entering Saturday. Fellow guard Taylor Stremlow shoots it at 40.4 percent with 40 makes, and both players average over four assists per game. McCabe was a third sharpshooter (49 makes at 37.4 percent), and her absence is a big loss for Iowa, especially emotionally, as her college career is now over. At least on the court it’s over; she’ll still be guiding her teammates on Sunday as they try to win the Big Ten Tournament for her.
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The combination of Heiden-Stuelke inside and Wright-Stremlow outside makes the Hawkeye offense capable of lighting up the scoreboard. But UCLA averages 84.8 points per game to Iowa’s 77.9. The Bruins have been in the contender conversation all season for a reason, and preventing their ascension to the Big Ten throne will be difficult.
Tune in on Sunday to see if Iowa can tap into the magic that has followed their program since Clark arrived on campus.
