As has so often been the case in recent years, the Six Nations will come down to the final week with France, Scotland and Ireland all able to take the title.
The smart money would be on France beating England to defend their crown, but there is a lot that can happen and given the games we’ve had over recent weeks, you can expect a few twists and turns along the way.
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Here are the permutations and what each team needs for victory.
France
HOW CAN THEY WIN? If Ireland beat Scotland, France just have to beat England, regardless of bonus points. If Scotland beat Ireland with a bonus point, France need to match their bonus points to win the title, unless Scotland overturn a 58-point deficit.
WILL THEY WIN? France will be kicking themselves after another grand slam chance goes begging. The 50 points they shipped against Scotland was the most since 2015 when they conceded 55 against England.
While they mounted a late comeback in what was ultimately a chaotic game, it will be a real sore point that they let standards slip in a game they would have been confident in winning. The test now is how will they respond? Fabien Galthié will need to get his side up for one last push, or else this could turn into a disastrous campaign. Fortunately for France, they will go into their clash with England knowing exactly what they need to do and with a far superior points difference, so another Les Bleus parade down the Champs-Élysées is the most likely scenario.
However, they face an England side who will be desperate themselves, knowing a win in Paris will massively help under pressure head coach Steve Borthwick.
Scotland
HOW CAN THEY WIN? A win vs. Ireland and France lose.
A bonus point win over Ireland means they can still claim the title if France beat England but Les Bleus don’t get a bonus point. Essentially, if Scotland beat Ireland with a bonus point, France will also need a bonus point win over England. If Scotland and France get the same bonus points, France will likely win given their points differential. If Scotland and Ireland draw (2 points each) and France lose, and don’t get two bonus points Scotland win.
WILL THEY WIN? This has been a wild ride for Scotland fans. It looked as though they were in for a painful few weeks after the opening defeat in Rome, but since then it’s been all smiles around Murrayfield. An emphatic win over England was backed up by victories over Wales and that hectic game against France. It means they can finally win the Six Nations but will have to overcome some recent history to do so.
They haven’t beaten Ireland since 2017, haven’t won in Dublin since 2010 at Croke Park, and have never tasted victory at the Aviva Stadium. Not since 1998 have a Scotland team gone to the stadium now known as the Aviva, then Lansdown Road, and won a game of rugby.
Still, with the way the championship has gone, and Ireland’s own vulnerabilities, you wouldn’t bet against it. It’s incredible to think of the pressure Gregor Townsend was under going into the England game and now he has the chance to make history.
Ireland
HOW CAN THEY WIN? A win vs. Scotland and France lose to England. Ireland can’t win if France beat England. They are two points off France and Scotland, so effectively need to beat Scotland, hope England defeat France, and Les Bleus fail to pick up two losing bonus points or else there’s a 63-point deficit to make up. If Scotland and Ireland draw (2 points each) and France lose, and don’t get two bonus points Scotland win.
WILL THEY WIN? A lot must go Ireland’s way, but it’s not impossible Andy Farrell could be lifting a third Six Nations title in four years. They will be confident, given Scotland’s unpredictability and the abovementioned history, of winning, but they need to really put the foot down, secure the bonus point, and get a favour from England. Still, even a win on Saturday, if it’s convincing, and missing out on the title will leave Ireland fans mostly happy considering where they’re at in terms of their development.
The squad depth remains a question following the recent departures of various legends, but it’s sometimes a case of short-term pain for long-term gain in rugby. A strong performance from Jack Crowley at No. 10 will see him establish himself as the premier fly-half going into the summer fixtures, while the likes of Rob Baloucoune, Nick Timoney and Jamie Osborne getting valuable game time. Stuart McCloskey has also established a strong partnership with Garry Ringrose in the midfield.
Ultimately, the title would be a huge bonus, but Ireland will take plenty away from this campaign regardless.
