PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — Whether you believe in the concept of the Players Championship as a major or not, one of the biggest weeks on the PGA Tour has arrived and storylines abound.
Defending champion Rory McIlroy and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler are both trying to add a third Players title to their résumés. Brooks Koepka is playing in his first Players since 2022. The golf course is set to have more bite than it has shown in recent years while a host of other players are vying for a career-defining win.
Here are five storylines we’re watching at TPC Sawgrass this week.
1. Is Scottie the overwhelming favorite this week?
Paolo Uggetti: The numbers say yes and they probably should and yet, if you’ve watched any of Scheffler’s golf over the course of the past three tournaments, you would know it’s not that simple. At all three events, Scheffler has struggled on Thursdays, and last week at Bay Hill he appeared more frustrated than ever with his play when he threw a ball in the water after a missed putt.
The fact that a T-24 finish can be considered bad for Scheffler says all you need to know about how high his floor is, and this week should be no different. While Scheffler downplays his struggles on the microphone and wears it on his sleeve on the golf course, the reality is that this week is tailored for him — he has already won this event twice and TPC Sawgrass demands great iron play. There lies the catch.
Scheffler’s iron play has not been his usual, all-time, all-world self lately. In fact, after leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach for three straight seasons, Scheffler is 88th so far this season. It’s tough to believe that will continue for a player of his caliber and this week is as good a week as any for him to start turning into an unbeatable force again.
Mark Schlabach: With McIlroy potentially sidelined with a back injury, I’d say Scheffler is an overwhelming favorite.
After becoming the first golfer to win back-to-back Players Championship titles in 2023 and ’24, Scheffler can join Jack Nicklaus as the only three-time winner in history. (McIlroy can also achieve this if he plays, after finishing first in 2019 and ’25.)
Scheffler has looked semihuman the past few weeks, as Paolo noted. Slow starts have plagued him in 2026; his scoring average in the final three rounds (67.0) is nearly 3.5 strokes better than the first (70.4) this season. He doesn’t seem to have an answer for why he has been slow out of the gates.
However, getting off to a fast start at TPC Sawgrass hasn’t been a problem for Scheffler, who is 13 under on the first three holes during his career.
Two-time major winner Collin Morikawa has been hot and is playing with a lot of confidence, and reigning Tour Championship winner Tommy Fleetwood is still playing well.
But I’ll roll with Scheffler again if Rory isn’t around.
2. Besides Rory and Scottie, which other player will you be watching the closest this week?
Uggetti: Maybe it’s old news by now, but the Brooks Koepka experience is still intriguing, especially this week. This is the first time Koepka is teeing it up on Tour with the top players in the world all part of the field. And while the PGA Tour attempts to not-so-subtly turn the Players more into a major-like event, it will be curious to see how Koepka gets up for the challenge as he usually does with bigger events.
This course doesn’t exactly fit him like a glove. In seven starts, he has never had a top-10 finish, and he missed the cut the last time he played this event in 2022. And then there’s the way he has played the famous par-3 17th hole. In 20 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, Koepka is 20-over par on the hole.
“That 17th hole has gotten me over the years,” Koepka said. “I’ve played good rounds here; that’s just kind of the one bugaboo that always gets me.”
Though he struggled in his first two starts back on the PGA Tour, Koepka showed flashes of his old self when he shot 6-under 65 in the final round at PGA National a few weeks ago. This week, however, will be a more true measurement of where his game stands among the Tour’s best.
Schlabach: Two-time major winner Xander Schauffele was showing signs of rounding into his previous championship form before slipping in the final 36 holes in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, in which he tied for 24th at 2 under.
After recovering from a painful rib injury that derailed his 2025 season, Schauffele had good showings when he tied for 19th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and for seventh in the Genesis Invitational.
Schauffele is a two-time runner-up in The Players, in his first start in 2018 and again in 2024. His short game has been exceptional at the Stadium Course — he’s tied for second in strokes gained: around the green (0.66) since 2018.
Will we start to see the Schauffele who dominated the sport, along with Scheffler, in 2024?
3. Sleepers for this week?
Uggetti: How about another past winner? Rickie Fowler won this event over 10 years ago and has gone through many ups and downs since then, but his game seems to be trending up so far this season.
Fowler has made five starts and his worst finish is a T-28 at Riviera. He notched four top-20 finishes and a T-9 last week at Bay Hill. He is 17th in strokes gained so far this season and, save for his game around the green (157th), Fowler is playing some of the best golf he has in recent years. A lot has changed since he won at TPC Sawgrass in 2015, but this may be as good a week as any for him to call on his experience.
Schlabach: I’m not sure a former Players Championship winner and the 28th-ranked golfer in the world qualifies as a sleeper, but Si Woo Kim has a great track record at TPC Sawgrass and has been striking the ball as well as anyone this season.
The Korean golfer has already played a whopping seven times this season, finishing in the top 15 in five. He was runner-up in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and tied for third in the WM Phoenix Open.
Heading into this week, Kim is second on tour in strokes gained: approach (1.198) and tee to green (1.947). He already has 23 rounds under par in 2026.
Kim, who as a 21-year-old won the 2017 Players Championship, knows his way around the Stadium Course.
Jake Knapp, who is ranked 42nd in the world, was playing spectacularly before he had to pull out of the API last week because of illness. He finished in the top 11 in each of his first five starts, including a solo sixth in the Genesis Invitational.
There isn’t much Knapp hasn’t done right so far in 2026. He ranks second in strokes gained: total (2.183) and fourth in putting (1.095). He’s also seventh in driving distance (319.4 yards), although accuracy off the tee (58.6%) has been an issue at times.
4. How do you think the course will play this week?
Uggetti: After walking around TPC Sawgrass for a few days now, it is clear that the Tour is making a concerted effort to set this course up a bit harder than it has in recent years. The rough is thicker — Justin Rose confirmed as much when he said his caddie told him it was half an inch longer — and the greens seem to have a bit more of a firmer bounce to them so far.
I watched Tuesday as Wyndham Clark hit a sand wedge into the 12th green and the ball bounced about waist high before landing back down on the surface. On Monday, Adam Schenk hit two balls into the rough right of 18 and had trouble finding them among the moguls. Chipping around the green will be trickier and it appears some collars around the water have been shaved down a bit as well.
At the risk of using the phrase “major championship test”, it appears that we will see a tougher Sawgrass this year than most. And though there is rain scheduled in the forecast for Thursday, it does not appear that it will be significant enough to truly change the conditions.
5. Prediction for the winner?
Uggetti: Give me Ludvig Åberg. Last week’s finish at Bay Hill (T-3) and the T-20 at Riviera were promising and it appears that he has found a groove after a rough start to the season on the West Coast.
With this course potentially playing tougher because of firmer greens and longer rough than usual, a guy like Aberg who hits it very high and very straight is set up to do well. If his putter can catch some heat (it has been the worst part of his game so far this season), look for him to be in contention come Sunday.
Schlabach: When in doubt, I’ll go with the golfer who has been most dominant for much of the past three seasons. Yes, Scheffler’s ball-striking hasn’t been up to his historic standards, but the guy is due to have a few off weeks every now and then.
Scheffler will join the Golden Bear on Sunday as the only three-time winner in Players Championship history — and he’ll complete the career Grand Slam in the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in June.
