One year ago, Luke Loucks walked into the Tucker Center and told a room full of Florida State fans it was good to be home. On Thursday night, he gets to prove exactly how good it feels. Florida State enters the ACC Tournament quarterfinal against No. 1 Duke, with the ESPN Matchup Predictor giving the Seminoles just a 4.0% chance of pulling the upset at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. The models say it is over before it starts. The spread says the same.
Duke is the best team in the country, but the last seven weeks of Florida State basketball say the Seminoles have not read the forecast. They never do.
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The most important context for Thursday night exists in the Jan. 3 box score: Duke won 91-87 in Tallahassee. Four points. On FSU’s home floor.
The Seminoles, playing at home and still early in Loucks’ first season, pushed the nation’s eventual No. 1 seed to the final possession. Duke is a better, more complete team than what FSU held to a four-point win in Tallahassee, but the Seminoles know what this opponent looks like.
Duke has gone 16-1 since that meeting and is now entering the ACC Tournament with a significantly diminished rotation. This is the detail that makes Thursday’s matchup more nuanced than the matchup predictor suggests.
Duke will be without starting point guard Caleb Foster and starting center Patrick Ngongba II for the entirety of the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils ended the regular season on an eight-game win streak, winning those games by an average margin of 23.1 points. That version of Duke had Foster and Ngongba. Thursday’s version does not.
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Whatever opportunities the Seminoles may find on offense, they will spend most of the night dealing with the most dominant individual player in college basketball.
Cameron Boozer is averaging 22.7 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game this season on 58.3% shooting from the field. He is the ACC Player of the Year. He is Duke’s engine, its primary scorer, its rebounder, and its interior anchor.
For FSU to win, Thomas Bassong, Alex Steen, and Lajae Jones would collectively need to limit Boozer to something far below his season average. That task has proven beyond nearly every opponent Duke has faced this year.
Florida State has not been given a chance all season. The models gave Cal the edge on Wednesday night. Loucks held a 4 a.m. film session after the worst loss in program history. None of it stopped the Seminoles from finishing over .500 in the ACC for the first time since 2021 and advancing to face the nation’s top team.
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Wednesday night, they beat California 95-89. The Seminoles held the lead for 81% of the game against a team ESPN’s models had picked to win. Now they are back on the floor 24 hours later, staring up at a 29-2 Duke team, and the models have rendered their verdict again.
Loucks will walk his team out onto the Spectrum Center floor for the biggest game of his first season as a head coach. He will do it with a program that has won 11 of its last 15 games, a point guard playing the best basketball of his career, and nothing to lose.
The college basketball world says Duke wins. The last two months say the Seminoles belong on this floor.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN Matchup Predictor: Florida State given 4% chance vs Duke
